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Beer by the Numbers: Numbers That Tell Stories
Lester JonesChief Economist
National Beer Wholesalers Association@joneslester
Data: Our Friend or Our Foe?
Eating cheese in bed can kill!
Data: Our Friend or Our Foe?
Save a life - Stop Nicholas Cage from appearing in movies!
U.S. Per Capita Beer Consumption1900 to 2015 Gallons Per Person
1900190519101915192019251930193519401945195019551960196519701975198019851990199520002005201020150
5
10
15
20
25
Gallo
ns P
er P
erso
n
Source: http://brookstonbeerbulletin.com/
U.S. Per Capita Beer Consumption2000 to 2015 Gallons Per LDA Person
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
Gallo
ns p
er LD
A Pe
rson
Source: Brewers Almanac.
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07Sep-07D
ec-07M
ar-08Jun-08Sep-08D
ec-08M
ar-09Jun-09Sep-09D
ec-09M
ar-10Jun-10Sep-10D
ec-10M
ar-11Jun-11Sep-11D
ec-11M
ar-12Jun-12Sep-12D
ec-12M
ar-13Jun-13Sep-13D
ec-13M
ar-14Jun-14Sep-14D
ec-14M
ar-15Jun-15Sep-15D
ec-15
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Ship
men
t Tre
nds
# no
t w
orki
ng
Still over 3.3 million young males (25-34) not working!
Combined impact of unemployed and not participating in labor force
Total Shipment Trend vs. YM Not WorkingPre- and Post-Recession, 2007 to 2016
Source: Beer Institute STW, BLS and NBWA 2016.
Cumulative Change in Real Hourly Wages of All Workers, by Wage Percentile
1979–2013
1/1/1979
1/1/1980
1/1/1981
1/1/1982
1/1/1983
1/1/1984
1/1/1985
1/1/1986
1/1/1987
1/1/1988
1/1/1989
1/1/1990
1/1/1991
1/1/1992
1/1/1993
1/1/1994
1/1/1995
1/1/1996
1/1/1997
1/1/1998
1/1/1999
1/1/2000
1/1/2001
1/1/2002
1/1/2003
1/1/2004
1/1/2005
1/1/2006
1/1/2007
1/1/2008
1/1/2009
1/1/2010
1/1/2011
1/1/2012
1/1/2013-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Very high wage Middle wage Low wage
Low wage is 10th percentile, middle wage is 50th percentile, very high wage is 95th percentile.
Source: EPI analysis of Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Group microdata
U.S. IRI Segments CY 2015YoY Growth 2014 vs. 2015 and Average Case
Price 2015
Craft
Imports
Domestic S
uper P...
Total B
eer
Domestic P
remium
Domestic S
ub Pr... $10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
$36.58 $29.21 $27.86 $22.47 $20.39 $15.67
18.8%
7.6%
4.3%2.1%
-1.6%
-5.3%
Price Per Case Segment Growth Rate
Pric
e Pe
r Cas
e
Segm
ent G
row
th
Source: IRI All Outlets YTD 12/27/2015
.
U.S. Population Hispanic and Non-Hispanic 2014 Census Current Population Survey
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 840
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
U.S. Hispanic U.S. Non-Hispanic Source: U.S. Census and NBWA 2015.
An Aging Population2000 to 2015
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
68%
69%
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
LDA Share
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
34.0
34.5
35.0
35.5
36.0
36.5
37.0
37.5
38.0
Median Age
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Gen Y (21-29) Gen X (30-49) Boomers (50-69)
Silent (70+)40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Liquor Past 7 Days Beer in Past 7 Days Wine Past 7 Days
Inde
x Ba
se =
100
Differences in Alcohol Consumption Across Generations in 2015
Source: Scarborough Research, 2015
1/1/
2012
2/1/
2012
3/1/
2012
4/1/
2012
5/1/
2012
6/1/
2012
7/1/
2012
8/1/
2012
9/1/
2012
10/1
/201
211
/1/2
012
12/1
/201
21/
1/20
132/
1/20
133/
1/20
134/
1/20
135/
1/20
136/
1/20
137/
1/20
138/
1/20
139/
1/20
1310
/1/2
013
11/1
/201
312
/1/2
013
1/1/
2014
2/1/
2014
3/1/
2014
4/1/
2014
5/1/
2014
6/1/
2014
7/1/
2014
8/1/
2014
9/1/
2014
10/1
/201
411
/1/2
014
12/1
/201
41/
1/20
152/
1/20
153/
1/20
154/
1/20
155/
1/20
156/
1/20
157/
1/20
158/
1/20
159/
1/20
1510
/1/2
015
11/1
/201
512
/1/2
0150
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
1,250,000
1,500,000
1,750,000
2,000,000
2,250,000
2,500,000
Tota
l Gal
lons
Source: NBWA, TTB and U.S. Commerce Dept. 2016.
Total U.S. Cider Volumes (Domestic + Imports)12 Month Moving Average Through Dec. 2015
Local Is Most Important to Beer Buyers
Beer Wine Liquor0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
45%
34%
23%
53%
34%
25%
How important is being locally made to your purchase decision for…
Total Persons 21+ 21 to 34
Perc
ent
Who
Sai
d “V
ery
or S
omew
hat I
m-
port
ant”
Source: Nielsen Quick Query Omnibus Survey, February 12-17, 2015 National. (Base: LDA consumers who drink at least several times per year)
Increasing TTB Permitted Breweries 1990 to 2015
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20102012
20140
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Source: TTB and NBWA.
TTB Permitted Brewery Counts6,080 as of December 2015
State Count State Count State CountAlabama 30 Kentucky 48 North Dakota 11Alaska 35 Louisiana 25 Ohio 187Arizona 91 Maine 84 Oklahoma 21Arkansas 29 Maryland 73 Oregon 281California 788 Massachusetts 124 Pennsylvania 278Colorado 352 Michigan 316 Rhode Island 15Connecticut 59 Minnesota 142 South Carolina 51Delaware 21 Mississippi 14 South Dakota 19DC 13 Missouri 90 Tennessee 88Florida 205 Montana 74 Texas 220Georgia 54 Nebraska 39 Utah 29Hawaii 26 Nevada 39 Vermont 66Idaho 57 New Hampshire 63 Virginia 155Illinois 210 New Jersey 71 Washington 383Indiana 151 New Mexico 71 West Virginia 17Iowa 71 New York 329 Wisconsin 189Kansas 37 North Carolina 207 Wyoming 32
Source: NBWA and TTB, 2016.
Craft Beer Has EvolvedSmall Was the Engine of Growth in 2015
Contribution to Craft Growth in 2014 by Volume Rank
35%
20%10%
36%
Top 10 Top 50Top 100 Balance (25k OR LESS)
Contribution to Craft Growth in 2015 by Volume Rank
14%
22%
12%
52%
Top 10 Top 50Top 100 Balance (25k OR LESS)
Source: New Brewer Magazine, BA 2015 and 2016.
What’s the Next Brewery Name?• Reviewed 4,000+ brewer names
• Rivers (90), Creeks (63) and Mountains (53) are in• Fields (1), Streams (2), Prairies (3) and Deserts (2) are out• Dogs (30), Bears (29) and Horses (25) are in• Spider (1), Snakes (2) and Lizards (2) are out • Eagles/Hawks (9) vs. Doves/Pigeons (4)• Bulls (11) vs. Cows (2)• Size does matter ... Big (60) vs. Small (1)• Direction important … North(40), South(35), East (10), West(24)• Numbers matter too … Prime (48) vs. Composite (19)
• Most likely to open in your neighborhood• 3 Big River Dogs Taproom (Northwest)• 5 Big Mountain Bears Brewpub (Northwest)
• Least likely to open in your neighborhood• 4 Tiny Desert Spiders Taproom (Southeast)• 6 Small Field Snakes Brewpub (Southeast)
Beer Industry Increasing the “High End”1980 vs. 2014
Sub-Pre-
mium28
Pre-mium62.3
Above Premium9.5
1980
Sub-Pre-
mium21.7
Pre-mium43.1
Above
Pre-mium34.9
2014
Source: Beer Marketers Insights, “The Long View” 2015.
Changing High End Beer Industry1980 vs. 2014
Imports
2.6
Super Prem
6.9
1980
1980 Above Premium 9.5%
Imports14.1Craft
9
Su-per-
Prem7
Cider1 FMB
3.8
2014
2014 Above Premium 34.9%
Source: Beer Marketers Insights, “The Long View” 2015.
MEADE AND SPRKLING WATERS?
Rich
Upper Middle
Middle
Lower Middle
Poor
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
2014; 1.8%
2014; 29.4%
2014; 32.0%
2014; 17.1%
2014; 19.8%
1979; 0.1%
1979; 12.9%
1979; 38.8%
1979; 23.9%
1979; 24.3%
Share of Each Income Class as a Percentage of U.S. Population, 1979-2014
Source: The Growing Size and Incomes of the Upper Middle Class, The Urban Institute. June 2016
NBWA Distributor Productivity ReportManaging Changing Business/Logistics
2006 2008 2010 2012 20140
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200Average Number of SKUs
Count of SKUs
2006 2008 2010 2012 201410.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
16.0
17.0
18.0
Inventory Turn
# of Times
Source: NBWA, Distributor Productivity Report.
Anatomy of a Beer Distributor
9%
8%
13%
70%
Share of Jobs at a Distributor
Admin MarketingOperations Sales\Ops
Source: NBWA, Comp and Benefits Study, 2015.
U.S. Share/Gallons Ethanol Per Capita(2015: 4.6% beer, 12.5% wine, 38% liquor)
0.9982; 58%
0.2375; 14%
0.4788; 28%
2000Beer Wine Liquor
0.9021415149; 49%
0.3133585275; 17%
0.6237867086; 34%
Beer Wine Liquor2015
Source: NBWA 2016. (Ethanol = C2H6O)
U.S. Consumer Price IndexBeer, Wine & Spirits at Home (Off Premise)
1/1/2008
4/1/2008
7/1/2008
10/1/2008
1/1/2009
4/1/2009
7/1/2009
10/1/2009
1/1/2010
4/1/2010
7/1/2010
10/1/2010
1/1/2011
4/1/2011
7/1/2011
10/1/2011
1/1/2012
4/1/2012
7/1/2012
10/1/2012
1/1/2013
4/1/2013
7/1/2013
10/1/2013
1/1/2014
4/1/2014
7/1/2014
10/1/2014
1/1/2015
4/1/2015
7/1/2015
10/1/2015
1/1/2016100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
Beer Liquor Wine
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2016.
Beer Not in Measured MarketsBrew Pubs and Tap Rooms - DTC
2013 2014 20150
500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,0003,500,0004,000,000
California
Repo
rted
Gal
lons
2013 2014 20150
200,000400,000600,000800,000
1,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,0001,800,000
Florida
Repo
rted
Gal
lons
2013 2014 20150
100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,000
Texas
Repo
rted
Gal
lons
2013 2014 20150
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Iowa
Repo
rted
Gal
lons
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201540,000
41,000
42,000
43,000
44,000
45,000
46,000
47,000
Traditional On-Premise Establishments Declining Around the U.S.
Source: U.S. BLS, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2016.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
10.2%
Draft Beer Share of Industry1946 to 2015
Back in the days when we drank “away from home”
To today where we drank “at home”
Source: NBWA, TTB, U.S. Department of Commerce. 2016.
In 2015 the industry produced and sold the same volume of draft beer in 2015 as it did in 1960s.
Different Beers, in Different PlacesWith Different People
• Mega Brew – Local vs. Global. What does it mean for the industry?• High End – Craft and import volumes continue to grow, but at a slower
pace for 2016 – still adding more cases as industry capacity expands but on larger base.
• Innovation will drive growth – more SKUs and a more complicated business.
• Domestic macro volumes will show a slight improvements but won’t carry the industry – economics, employment and wages and disposable income.
• Ciders vs. Hard Soda vs. Sparkling Water vs. Meade• Cans vs. Bottles vs. Growlers• Taprooms vs. Traditional On-Premise –Will draft ever grow?• Waiting for industry to get back to basics…• The data will tell the story of beer
