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Analýza výdavkov na reklamu, Ján Havelka (GroupM), LOTE 2011

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Page 1: Analýza výdavkov na reklamu, Ján Havelka (GroupM), LOTE 2011

This year, next

year

December 2010

Page 2: Analýza výdavkov na reklamu, Ján Havelka (GroupM), LOTE 2011

2010 global forecast

5.9%

Page 3: Analýza výdavkov na reklamu, Ján Havelka (GroupM), LOTE 2011

2011 global forecast

5.8%

Page 4: Analýza výdavkov na reklamu, Ján Havelka (GroupM), LOTE 2011

2011 global forecast

$500bn

Page 5: Analýza výdavkov na reklamu, Ján Havelka (GroupM), LOTE 2011

Broad-based recovery

Jan-Sep 10 vs. 09

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2009

2010

GroupM/Kantar Media

Page 6: Analýza výdavkov na reklamu, Ján Havelka (GroupM), LOTE 2011

The recovery by region

2010 2011

North America 2 4

Lat Am 14 11

W Europe 4 3

CEE 11 11

CEE excl. Turkey,

Russia & Ukraina

0 3.8

AsPac 10 8

World 5.9 5.8

Page 7: Analýza výdavkov na reklamu, Ján Havelka (GroupM), LOTE 2011

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Canada Russia Indonesia India Brazil Japan China USA

Contributions to 2011

USD billion

Page 8: Analýza výdavkov na reklamu, Ján Havelka (GroupM), LOTE 2011

-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

Radio OOH Print Internet TV

Contributions to 2011

USD billion

Page 9: Analýza výdavkov na reklamu, Ján Havelka (GroupM), LOTE 2011

Ad spend by regions past decade

Real media growth (% yoy); fixed USD rate (at Y2K)

8.6

18.5

6.1

10.1 8.9 8.711.7

7.7

-20.2

-1.3

3.2

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010f 2011f

NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA

WESTERN EUROPE CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

Russia, Ukraine and Turkey ASIA-PACIFIC (all)

Page 10: Analýza výdavkov na reklamu, Ján Havelka (GroupM), LOTE 2011

Ad spend by regions past decade

Real media growth (% yoy), fixed USD rate (at Y2K)

8.1 7.94.4

-16.2

-6.7

1.4

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010f 2011f

WORLD CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

Czech Republic Hungary

Poland Slovak Republic

Page 11: Analýza výdavkov na reklamu, Ján Havelka (GroupM), LOTE 2011

Growing Poland importance

41% 43%46%

64%

6% 7% 6% 5%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2007 2010F 2011F Marginal increase

Czech Republic

Estonia

Hungary

Latvia

Lithuania

Poland

Romania

Slovak Republic

Media investment growth (USD)

Page 12: Analýza výdavkov na reklamu, Ján Havelka (GroupM), LOTE 2011

Investment by media type

39.1 43.5

29.6 18.1

17.2

10.4

1.916.4

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Internet

OOH

Magazines

Newspapers

Radio

TV

World´s averaged media mix

Page 13: Analýza výdavkov na reklamu, Ján Havelka (GroupM), LOTE 2011

Regional view on media split

TV, 43.5TV, 48.5

TV, 43.9

Radio, 5.4

Radio, 7.2Radio, 7.1

Newspapers, 18.1Newspapers, 10.9

Newspapers, 10.6

Magazines, 10.4 Magazines, 11.4Magazines, 15.5

OOH, 5.9 OOH, 8.6 OOH, 13.0

Internet, 16.4 Internet, 12.2 Internet, 9.2

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

WORLD CEE SLOVAKIA

Page 14: Analýza výdavkov na reklamu, Ján Havelka (GroupM), LOTE 2011

TV´s share of ad spend: CEE region

48.5

30.0

35.3

42.643.9

46.348.2

50.1

62.163.4

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

CEE Estonia Hungary Czech Republic

Slovak Republic

Latvia Lithuania Poland Romania Slovenia

CEE

Estonia

Hungary

Czech Republic

Slovak Republic

Latvia

Lithuania

Poland

Romania

Slovenia

Page 15: Analýza výdavkov na reklamu, Ján Havelka (GroupM), LOTE 2011

Internet’s share of ad spend

05

101520253035

Page 16: Analýza výdavkov na reklamu, Ján Havelka (GroupM), LOTE 2011

Summary of TYNY Adex review

Global view

– 2010 shows relatively solid rebound (5.9), sustainable rate of growth predicted also in 2011 (5.8)

– 65% of new investment goes into „New World“

– dominant share of TV and Internet with new adex; Internet in Old, TV spend in new world

CEE/Slovakia

– CEE region loosing its „emerging“ status in terms of AdEx growth (3.8)

– Poland´s prospect brighter, outshine budget from other regional countries

– Slovakian rebound is weaker compared to other CEE countries ; Efficiency of scale issue

– Slovak Internet investment share (9%) still lower, even compared to CEE average (12%);

– OOH and magazines investment fare better than regional figures