Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
An Introduction to “Verge”
A general practice framework for futures work
Wolfson College, Oxford, UK10/4/2013
Sponsored by the Association of Professional Futurists
Vision Foresight Strategy LLCChief executive officerwww.kikilo.biz
Institute for Political FuturesPresident
To support intelligent and critical discourse on the futures of governance, citizenship, and democracy.
To help others make better sense of the world around them so they can create the most desirable futures possible.
[email protected]@kikilo, @thethirdera
Richard A. K. Lum, PhD
AN INTRODUCTION TO VERGESix Domains of Human Experience
What is Verge?Originally intended as an alternative taxonomy for environmental scanning, Verge has evolved through use into a general practice framework employed by foresight professionals at virtually every stage of futures research.
http://anticipatingchange.blogspot.com/2013/03/verge‐general‐practice‐framework‐for.html
It is a way to frame and explore changes in the world.
Stepping Outside the STEEP Box
SocialTechnologicalEconomicEnvironmentalPolitical
Verge1 DomainsSince its creation the Verge framework has been used with a variety of organizations, such as:
• Nissan Motor Company• PepsiCo• Ford Motor Company• MTV• Eurostar• Singapore Civil Service College
Define: The concepts, ideas, and paradigms we use to define ourselves and the world around us
Relate: The social structures and relationships which define people and organizations
Connect: The technologies that connect people, places, and things
Create: The processes and technology through which we produce goods and services
Consume: The ways in which we acquire and use the goods and services that we create.
Destroy: The ways in which value is destroyed and the reasons for doing so
1 Futurists in the US know this framework as “Verge”, while practitioners in the UK know it as the “ethnographic futures framework.”
Define speaks to the concepts, ideas, and paradigms we use to define ourselves and the world around us.
Define
Examples of Changes Found within Define
• The shift from a Newtonian scientific worldview to one that sees Chaos, Complexity, and Quantum phenomena
• Active, interventionist government policies gaining favor over laissez faire economic theories
• People expanding their definition of “natural” to include human‐built structures
Things like:• Worldview• Paradigms• Philosophy• Archetypes• Social values and attitudes• Public policy• Religion
Relate deals with the social structures and relationships which define people and organizations.
Relate
Examples of Changes Found within Relate
• Networked enterprises eschewing traditional office work spaces and large full time staff in favor of collaboration and outsourcing via Web‐based tools
• Age cohort differences in family and child rearing patterns
• Young physicians opting for salaried employment rather than private practice
Things like:• Family and lifestyle groups• Work life• Business models• Social institutions• Governance structures
The Connect domain encompasses the technologies and practices used to connect people, places, and things.
Connect
Examples of Changes Found within Connect
• Upward trend in individuals using mobile devices to access information and communicate
• Prevalence of internet‐based social network services
• Emerging community fault lines over proposed mass transit plans
Things like:• Information technology• Transportation and
mobility• Urban design• Language• Media
Create is concerned with the technology and processes through which we produce goods and services.
Create
Examples of Changes Found within Create
• Rising popularity of the DIY ethos
• Extrapolating the uses for advanced 3D printing
• The push for “localization” and local sourcing emerging across several sectors
Things like:• Manufacturing• Biotechnology• Nanotechnology• Efficiency• Work force• Rule making
Consume is about the ways in which we acquire and use the goods and services we create.
Consume
Examples of Changes Found within Consume
• Business models based on the “sharing economy” premise
• Community efforts to reduce household water use
• Trends in the amount of disposable income controlled by youth
Things like:• Modes of exchange• Retail practices• Consumer preferences• Marketing• Patterns of consumption
The domain of Destroy is about the ways in which we destroy value and the reasons for doing so.
Destroy
Examples of Changes Found within Destroy
• The falling trend of formally declared wars between established states
• Potential hazard of engineered nanoparticles on human health and the broader biological landscape
• “Cyber‐bullying” and the changing social dynamics for American youth
Things like:• Violence and killing• Damage• Refuse• Inefficiencies• Attempts to undermine
rules and norms
APPLICATIONSUsing the Verge lens to explore and interpret the world
ScanningThe Verge framework is used as an alternative to the classic STEEP categories for research.
To Organize a Scanning EffortUsed in its original application the Verge domains are used to organize an environmental scanning research effort, using the domains as research areas, within which researchers hunt for weak signals.
To Categorize Scanning HitsSimilarly, the Verge domains can be used to “bucket” the results of scanning and research, regardless of the organization of the research effort.
Verge domains used to organize an environmental scanning effort
ForecastingVerge is often used in various ways during forecasting exercises. Two methods include emerging issues analysis and interaction analysis.
Trend and Emerging Issues AnalysisOften related to a scanning effort, the Verge framework has been used to direct efforts to identify and forecast potential emerging issues.
Interaction AnalysisVerge interaction analysis involves forecasting the impact of changes in one domain as they cascade across other domains. This method can be used to generate entire scenarios.
RelateConnectCo
nsum
eDestroy
Basic heuristic for Verge interaction analysis, incorporating a version of layered analysis
AnalysisUsing the Verge domains to structure the exploration of implications of trends, emerging issues, scenarios, and other forecasts.
Implications WheelsPractitioners often use a version of the Futures Wheel to explore the implications of an emerging issue or scenario (rather than using it to build parts of a scenario or forecast).
Critique ForecastsInteraction analysis can also be used to reconsider an existing scenario or forecast by exploring logical cross‐domain impacts that might alter the basic forecast trajectory.
Demand for 3D design courses
FedEx printing platform
DIY/Makers edged out of market
Consumer/ maker digital divide
Lots of new waste
Shopping at FedEx not Wal‐Mart
ICT more important than ever
People sell digital designs
Cheap to order more
stuff
Define
Relate
Connect
CreateConsum
e
Destroy
A factory in every
community
3D printing at FedEx Kinkos
Seen as critical for econ dev
Basic implications wheel framed by the Verge domains
The general practice framework can often be used in conjunction with other established futures methods and concepts. Below, using Verge with a simple layered analysis of change in society.
Combining Frameworks
Surface Layer
Systems Layer
Worldview Layer
Define Relate Connect Create Consume Destroy
By combining the general practice framework with a framework like layered analysis (which identifies the different rates of change that occur at different “layers” of society), we add additional structure that improves our analysis of the many, subtle interrelationships both driving and responding to change.
Combining Frameworks
First Horizon Second Horizon Third Horizon
Define
Relate
Connect
Create
Consume
Destroy
Combining Verge with the Three Horizons2.
2 Andrew Curry and Anthony Hodgson. “Seeing in Multiple Horizons: Connecting Futures to Strategy.” Journal of Futures Studies. August 2008.
EXAMPLE: GOVERNANCEApplying the framework to the futures of governance
First Horizon Second Horizon Third Horizon
Define Newtonian physics, popular sovereignty
Systems, complexity science, networks
?
Relate Representative government Online social networks machinarchy
Connect Mass media Internet, social media, mobile devices
Internet of things
Create F2F deliberation, bureaucratic administration; voting
Crowdsourcing, civic hacking, co‐production
Machines, algorithms, automation
Consume Go to government, use what is provided
Websites, mobile apps Ambient persistent governance
Destroy Political marginalization (lack of suffrage)
Party polarization, special interest groups, voter apathy
Democracy, human agency, rampant sabotage
SampleCombining Verge with the Three Horizons to explore the futures of governance.
managers3 entrepreneurs visionaries
3 Categories from Bill Sharpe, via Wendy Schultz, PhD
