Acting on the Future: Practical Foresight

Implementation in Canada

John M SchmidtCANSYNTH

July 27, 2015

WorldFuture 2015Global Issues

Most governments operate using institutions designed for an era gone by.

Increasing collisions with “unforeseeable events” and opportunities lost.

In chaotic circumstances, small actions can powerfully influence ultimate outcomes.

We cannot rely indefinitely on crisis management, no matter how adroit. We need to get ahead of events.

Anticipatory Governance:

Need to institutionalize three basic management systems:

(1) a system for integrating foresight into policy development and execution;

(2) a networked system;(3) a feedback system.

Requirements:

Governments and their agencies need a foresight function to help them:

• understand and challenge their own assumptions;• anticipate plausible futures, including the expected

and unexpected outcomes of current decisions;• observe key indicators;• offset negative drivers or ameliorate their effects;

Governments and their agencies need a foresight function to help them:• be sensitive to weak signals and the emergence of

disruptive wild cards, as well as to more established “trends”;

• pre-decide contingent strategies;• respond quickly and adapt to change processes and

events;• fulfill their mandates and meet their goals.

Not an easy sell, even if broad agreement on need.

Near-term emergencies always trump longer-term challenges.The question is how to achieve strategic coherence. Government systems are outmoded for today’s kind of problems, which are “complex” rather than just “complicated.”

Anticipatory Governance:

Outcomes:• Intended• Unintended

Plausible

Predictable

Foresight

Intelligence

• Emerging trends• Scenarios/what-ifs• Weak signals• Outliers, Black swans• Resiliency factors• Drivers & Signposts

• Current/Operational• Tactical forecast• Strategic forecast• Current trends• Statistical predictions• Monitoring/Warning

Planning& Policy

DecisionsActions

HorizonNear Far

Range of interest

Requirements& Tasking

Feedback

Feedback

Feed

back

Feedback

A Complete and Interactive System

• intelligence directed at supporting action (or counter-action)

• foresight directed at supporting preparedness and resiliency

• collaboration and mutual support between the two

A Complete and Interactive System:

Government agency executives are often:

• uncertain how to effectively develop and implement a foresight capacity;

• hesitant without having a clear idea of the likely cost-benefit consequences.

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External Foresight SMEs External Foresight SMEs

CentralForesightAgency

• Some United Nations agencies• European Union, OECD, NATO• Other bilateral and multilateral international

bodies• Some national governments• Some specific government agencies

Public Sector Foresight Implementation:

Dreyer & Stang (2013)

CountryForesight

program(s) implemented

Well resourced& widely used

Multiple departments Central agency Arms-length

research agency

Canada X X X X

France X X X X

Netherlands X X X X

Singapore X X X X

UK X X X X

Finland X X X X

Sweden X X X X Germany X X X

U.S. X X X

Japan X X X X

South Korea X X X

Australia X X

China X ? X? ? ?

Norway X X

Brazil X Switzerland X

Italy X

South Africa X

Russia X

India

Indonesia

Mexico

Government implementation of foresight

• Centralised – foresight responsibility vested in one or a few central, whole-of government agencies or external authorities

• Decentralized – foresight responsibility vested in line departments and agencies

• Distributed – both central agency and line agency responsibilities, non-hierarchical and networked

Implementation Approaches:

Singapore Government Foresight Ecosystem

Singapore Centre for Strategic Futures

• Foresight program formally established in 1994• Science & innovation investment framework report of

2004– All departments to do horizon scanning and be linked– Office of S&T Horizon Scanning Centre– Chief Scientific Adviser to provide strategic context

• In 2009, the foresight program was determined to be effective and broadened beyond S&T policy to the full public policy agenda

United Kingdom

United Kingdom

• More recently, has become badly coordinated• Central oversight now absent• Interdepartmental analyst-level networks poorly

coordinated and maintained• Horizon scanning performance inconsistent and not

generally systematic• Foresight networks not centrally managed• Civil service siloing affected foresight activities and

outcomes

• As of 2012, few departments and agencies had foresight functions

• Now, at least fifty use foresight in some form• Some are well-established, programmatic units• Others are rapidly developing foresight capabilities• In some, though, foresight activities have declined• There is still no central foresight agency with whole-

of-government foresight responsibility

United States

United States

Federal Foresight Community of Interest• Informal, but well-established network• Sharing foresight methods, best practices and results• Community document repository (on Max.gov)• Peer analysis, expertise and resources• Fostering cross-agency research and collaboration• Partnering with non-government organizations• Demonstrating the value of foresight in government• Promoting connectivity and leadership engagement

• growing interest in foresight• scanning most developed; scenario use increasing• some department head committees supportive • Policy Horizons Canada the central foresight agency• most departments in Environmental Scanning Practice

Group• few groups with mandate to do foresight, but changing• nine government departments identified as doing

foresight

Canada in 2012

What has changed?

… not much.

Canada Now

Policy Horizons Canada (Horizons):• evolved in 2011• provides foresight to help the federal public

service anticipate emerging policy challenges and opportunities in a rapidly changing and complex world

• works with others, inside and outside the federal family

Canada Now

Policy Horizons Canada (Horizons):• reports to a Committee of Deputy Ministers.

(department heads)• 16 professional and 10 administrative staff• produces one or two major and contributing

reports per year

Canada Now

October, 2012Driving Policy on a Shifting Terrain: Understanding the Changing Policy Environment

Amid 21st-Century ComplexityInnovation Labs: Bridging Think Tanks and Do TanksThe Emerging Neurotechnologies: Recent Developments and Policy ImplicationsThe Next Economy: Transformation and Resilience in Times of Rapid Change

December, 2012Transforming Off-line Commitment to Online Engagement: Year one in Creating a

Community of Practice on a Social Media PlatformObserving the Big Blue Marble: A Policy LeverManufacturing Goes Digital with 3D Printing

June, 2013Viral Change in OrganizationsThe Future is HistoryBenefits and Challenges of ICTs for CitizensSharing Ideas with VisualsTechnology: Governing the Ungovernable?

August, 2013Agricultural and Natural Manufacturing TechnologyBuilding Familiarity with Federal Foresight Approaches and Tools in the YukonNeurotechnology and Cognitive TechnologiesNanotechnology and Materials ScienceThe Rise of the Otherwise-abledHealth TechnologyDigital and Communication TechnologyEnergy Technology

September, 2013A Day in the Life of a Policy Designer

October, 2013Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoins and BeyondAgile Policy on Complex Terrains – Nudge or Nuzzle?

November, 2013When Energy Technology Goes on Steroids: The Nano-Energy Interface

February, 2014Urbanizing Asia and Green Urban GrowthFragmentation and Resurgence of Islamic Terrorist Groups in AsiaE-commerce in Asia: Growth of the Online MarketplaceRobots as a Social Solution or a Social Disruption in AsiaClimate Change and the Risk of Displacement in AsiaShifting Composition of the Asia Pacific Security ArchitectureFinancial ArchitectureThe Silver Lining: Opportunities in Aging AsiaCross Border Air Pollution in AsiaBrain Drain to Brain Gain: Reverse Migration to Asia

Canada

Departments and agencies• Approximately 215 officially listed• 10 to 15 known to have active foresight programs• No foresight network in place• Information gaps likely• CALWC, in cooperation with Horizons and the

Conference Board of Canada, recently conducted an inventory exercise

Canada

Foresight Inventory• Existence and formality of foresight function• Unit size and proportion of foresight work• Location in the organization• Links to wider structure and governance processes• Maturity• Participation and acceptance• Training • Products, success stories and lessons learned

Canada

Foresight Inventory• Well over 100 questionnaires sent out to people in

key positions in departments and agencies most likely to have foresight activities

• Horizons and ten departments and agencies provided completed questionnaires

• Not all agencies with previously known foresight functions replied, but some new ones did

Canada

Foresight Inventory Results• Four types:

1. Formal foresight function/unit2. Foresight as non-primary responsibility of

other staff3. Foresight projects/activities done4. No identified foresight activity

Canada

Foresight Inventory Results

Successes?

Lessons Learned?

Canada

No network!• CBoC FuSION brings people from across the

government together for foresight training and exercises, but is generally limited to that

• No shared place/mechanism to develop, exchange and store knowledge and results

• Agency foresight efforts can sprout, wither and disappear without outside awareness or support

Canada

Conclusion:Canada is a long way from having a sound foresight regime. While it has an established central foresight agency, its focus is almost entirely on whole-of-government issues. Agency-based implementations are few, mostly still quite tentative and generally isolated from one another, especially without a network to support effective collaboration.

Thinking about the Future, Guidelines for Strategic Foresight, Andy Hines and Peter Bishop, Eds., http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Future-Guidelines-Strategic-Foresight/dp/097893170X

Anticipatory Governance – Practical Upgrades, Leon Fuerth and Evan Faber, http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&sqi=2&ved=0CCkQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wilsoncenter.org%2Fsites%2Fdefault%2Ffiles%2FAnticipatory_Governance_Practical_Upgrades.pdf&ei=qkR5UqzwNLOMyAHd0IGYCA&usg=AFQjCNE3uMEeJPjcKN-TqHEiy2VzvQRf_w

"Co-Creating Foresight Culture in Government", Greg Van Alstyne, https://www.dropbox.com/s/ec4lenpkpxqribc/VanAlstyne%2CG_2013_CoCreatingForesightCultureinGovt_sLab-OCADU.pdf

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Foresight for Government, David M. Walker, http://www.wfs.org/futurist/foresight-for-government

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Practicing Strategic Foresight in Government – the cases of Finland, Singapore and the European Union (monograph), Tuomo Kuosa, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, 2011, http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/monographs/Monograph19.pdf

MetaScan 2: Building Resilience in the Transition to a Digital Economy and a Networked Society, Policy Horizons Canada, http://www.horizons.gc.ca/eng/content/ building-resilience-transition-digital-economy-and-networked-society

MetaScan 3: Emerging technologies, Policy Horizons Canada, http://www.horizons.gc.ca/eng/content/metascan-3-emerging-technologies-0

Intelligence, Strategic Warning and Foresight: Completing the Package for Decision-Makers, John M. Schmidt, IALEIA Journal of Intelligence Analysis, 22-2, April 2015 Special Edition: Intelligence Canaries: Applications in Strategic Early Warning – Towards a New Intelligence Analysis Paradigm, http://www.ialeia.org/images/Journal/ JIA%2022-2%20Abstracts.pdf

Policy, Planning, Intelligence and Foresight in Government Organizations, John M. Schmidt, Foresight (Emerald), 17-5, August 2015 (in print)

Discussion

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