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Describes a new approach for rapidly developing policies and strategies to keep pace with a fast-changing world.
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A Fast-Changing World Needs Agile Policies
Albert Simard Defence R&D CanadaPresented toINFONEX Strategic Policy Development Ottawa, ON Nov 27-28, 2013
2
Outline
New Reality
Probing
Sense-Making
Adapting
M. C. Escher (1957)
3
New Reality
Accelerating changeComplex worldAgile framework
Reality
Traditional Policy Time Scale
Old Policy Policy Change New Policy
5-7 years 2-3 years 5-7 years
4
Reality
5
Traditional Policy Change Create UrgencyEstablish CoalitionDevelop PlanProvide IncentivesEmpower ActionEarly SuccessMaintain MomentumInstitutionalize
Kotter (2002)
Adapting
Like great ships, government agencies are slow to change direction
Technology Adoption
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Reality
Time to Reach 50 Million UsersMillion Users
50
40
30
20
10
0
7
0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 2250 Days
Reality
21st Century Challenges
KnowledgeEconomy
DiverseWorkforce
InformationSociety
SustainableDevelopment
FiniteResources
InternationalPartnerships
GlobalizationAccelerating Change
Life-LongLearning
ComplexTechnologies
CitizenEngagement
Safety & Security
US National Science Foundation (2001) 8
Reality
Responding to Change
Agile
Traditional
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Reality
Agile Approach to Policy
Adapt (rapid)
Probe (continuous)
Sense-Making
(pro-active)
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Reality
Modular Approach
Detect Pattern
Environmental Change Life Cycle
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Data & Knowledge
None
Start Finish
Full
Time
Origin
Detection
Early
Middle
Late
Too Late
Adaptation Window
Adaptation Decision Framework Importance of pattern: low (1), medium (2), high (3)
Existing knowledge: inadequate (1), partial (2), adequate (3)
Available data: inadequate (1), partial (2), adequate (3)
Resource implications: high (1), medium (2), low (3)
Risks of inaction: low (1), medium (2), high (3)
Likely impact: minimal (1), moderate (2), significant (3)
6-11points - DEFER; 12-17 points - MAYBE; 18-24 points - ACT
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No hard answers; judgement and experience are necessary
Traditional Policy Development Cycle
(Australian Policy Handbook)
Issue Identification
Environmental Scan
Strategy Development
Consultation
Coordination
Decision
Implementation
Evaluation
Organization
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Reality
Agile Policy Framework
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Probing
AdaptingSense- MakingSense- Making
Reality
(What’s happening?)
(What does it mean?)(What do we do?)
15
Outline
New Reality
Probing
Sense-Making
Adapting
M. C. Escher (1957)
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Probing (Evaluation, Emerging Trends) Passive (monitoring, social networks)
Active (intelligence, soliciting)
Internal (documents, expertise)
Probing
Environmental MonitoringCyberspace
MediaPublished Literature
Conferences Experience
Individuals
Ad hoc
Communities of practice
Practitioners
AccessAttend
Participate
SolicitReceive
Discover
Review
Monitor
search filter scan
Research
Analysis
Office apps.
Validation
Document
Store Repository
ExpertiseCorroborate
Share Incentives
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(DRDC Knowledge Services, 2012)
Probing
Monitoring Cyberspace
Anticipate emerging issue
Anticipate stakeholder actions
Discover new stakeholders
Discover potential partners
Learn from others
Learn about new technology
Monitor institutional changes
Monitor public opinion
Find useful information
Detect new risks
Only way to keep up with accelerating changeOnly way to keep up with accelerating change
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Social Networks
Probing
Monitoring must be focussed
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Intelligence SourcesPublic DomainGovernment DocumentsAnnual reportsAnalyst reportsPublic databasesSpeechesBroadcast media Print mediaTrade associationsWorld-Wide Web
Non-Public Domain
Change of statusHuman intelligenceTrade showsAsk employeesAsk clientsObservationAerial survey
Probing
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Source DiversityIncreased visibility, awareness, or influenceSeen as active and competent playerFeedback on user needs and applicationsLeverage the value of organizational resourcesIncrease partnership and business opportunitiesOrganizational business or mandateInfluencing attitudes, opinions, or behavior Advocating a position, agenda, or policy Intervening in stakeholder or social activity
Passive
Active
Probing
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Soliciting Inputs
Client interviewsConsultationsExpert opinionStakeholder surveysUser feedbackWorkshopsColloquia
Probing
Internal Inputs
Environmental Monitoring
Produce Intelligence
Acquire Content
Mobilize Knowledge
Operations
Corporate Reporting
Experience
Futures Analysis
Individual Learning
Create Knowledge
CaptureOffice apps. Repository
Publish
Sense-Making
Share incentives
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(DRDC Knowledge Services, 2012)
Probing
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Sharing Attributes
Incentives and motivation
Trust and safety
Organizational culture
Content security
Individual privacy
Different expertise
Control and hoarding
Large distances
Different languages
Probing
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Outline
New Reality
Probing
Sense-Making
Adapting
M. C. Escher (1957)
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Sense-Making
AnalysisSynthesisInterpretationValidation
Sense-Making
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Analysis Spectrum
mathematics, logic, proof
science, engineering, technology
statistics, data, facts, measurement
collaboration, validation, management
expertise, experience, judgement
opinion, perception, bias
belief, emotion, values
Quantitative (irrefutable)
Qualitative (no evidence)
Sense-Making
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Analysis Principles• Resources are required: time, effort, expertise, funding,
capacity, technology, data, knowledge • Complexity is inherent: strategic analysis is non-linear,
involves feedback, iterations, delays, and uncertainty• Methods are known: techniques are well-understood;
extensive literature for most disciplines• Management perspectives: understanding, trust,
confidence, liabilities, risk, externalities
Analysis combines science & computers; skill & technique, judgement & experience; insight & intuition.
Sense-Making
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Two Approaches
Analysis: Using deduction to differentiate and study data, information, or knowledge to deduce deeper or more precise meaning or understanding. (Scientific approach)
Synthesis: Using induction to integrate and study many processes as a whole to infer higher-level meaning or understanding. (Systems approach)
People tend to be good at analysis or synthesis; few are good at both.
Sense-Making
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Analysis Is a Human Activity Collect information from people and organizations.
Organize data based on individual perspectives.
Classify issues based on human understanding.
Select analytical methods using expert knowledge.
Interpret results through cognitive reasoning.
Validate results through dialogue and collaboration.
Sense-Making
Experience and judgement are essential
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Community of Practice
Government, department
Sector, branch, division
Policy analysts, regulators
Finance, purchasing
Scientists, lawyers
Information technologists
People with common expertise, skill, or profession (position, work, colleagues)
People with common expertise, skill, or profession (position, work, colleagues)
Sense-Making
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Communities Validate Knowledge
Knowledge exists in the minds of people. Experience is as important as formal knowledge.Knowledge is tacit as well as explicit. Transferring tacit knowledge is more effective through human interaction.Knowledge is social as well as individual. Today’s knowledge is the result of centuries of collective research.Knowledge is changing at an accelerating rate. It takes a community of people to keep up with new concepts, practices, and technology.
Sense-Making
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Communities Emphasize Collaboration
Dialogue, conversations in groups Sharing, exchanges among peersCandor, freedom of expressionTrust, safety, honestyTransparency, opennessAgreed rules of conductDiversity, flexibility, outliersEquality, meritocracy of ideasCollective, not individual benefit
Sense-Making
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Harvesting Community Outputs Service Center: repository for community outputs; interface with communities, minimize duplication, inform communities
Leader: transfer community outputs; Identify emerging trends, prioritize issues
Sponsor: endorse community outputs; bridge between the community and the organization, provide support, minimize organizational barriers
Champion: ensure adoption of community outputs; communicate purpose, promote the community
Sense-Making
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Outline
New Reality
Probing
Sense-Making
Adapting
M. C. Escher (1957)
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AdaptingStructure (planning, integrating, interaction)
Approve (decision, authorizing)
Implement (steps, incentives, sustaining)
Adapting
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Planning ChangeCreate visionDetermine objectives Establish milestonesSchedule work
Integrate changesSocial Interaction
Document results Recommend action
Adapting
Integrating ChangeValidated
Inputs
People Governance Processes Technology
Content, Services
Integrated Change
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Adapting
Social Interaction Framework
GoalsCompatible Conflicting
Interests
Mutual
AutonomousCompetitiondefence or victory aggressive approach no trust secretive, hostile
Collaborationjoint or peer production partnership approach high trust diverse, synergistic
Negotiationmutual agreement adversarial approach nominal trust structured, formal
Sharingleverage knowledge passive approach moderate trust benign, supportive
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Adapting
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Decision Maker PerspectivesAccountable for actionsSituational pressureBroader view than analysisDepth of understanding Involvement in planningConfidence in resultsRisk tolerancePrevious experienceBelief systemEmotions
Adapting
DRDC Environmental Management System
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“Continual” Improvement
Environmental Policy
Planning
Implementation
Checking
Management Review
Annual Report
Event response
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Main MessagesTraditional policy approaches are too slow in a rapidly-changing world.
Continuous probing monitors effectiveness and detects emerging patterns.
Sense-making interprets and validates patterns and trends.
Agile policies are essential to keeping pace with a dynamic world.
http://cradpdf.drdc-rddc.gc.ca/PDFS/unc121/p536618_A1b.pdf
Knowledge Services: A Synthesis of Best Practices