9 Essential Trends for the Future of Work

9 ESSENTIAL TRENDS TH

E FUTU

RE OF W

ORK

What automation, robots, software & AI mean for your job

• The Future of Employment: How Suspectible are Jobs to Computerisation? - Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne

Half of our Jobs will Disappear


Half of our Jobs will Disappear"According to our estimates around 47 percent

of total US employment is in the high risk category. We refer to these as jobs at risk – i.e. jobs we expect could be automated relatively soon, perhaps over the next decade or two.."


And those remaining jobs…

• The Future of Jobs: The Onrushing Wave - http://econ.st/L8Vv2H


•Jobs that are not easily automated may still be transformed.




•New data-processing technology could break “cognitive” jobs down into

smaller and smaller tasks.






•As well as opening the way to eventual automation this could reduce the

satisfaction from such work.






•As well as opening the way to eventual automation this could reduce the

satisfaction from such work.

•Just as the satisfaction of making things was reduced by deskilling and

interchangeable parts in the 19th century.


• Justice for Data Janitors - http://publicbooks.org/nonfiction/justice-for-data-janitors

In fact: janitor jobs are already a reality


Computers do not wield the cultural fluencies necessary to interpret this kind of material [cultural data analysis]; but people do.This is the hidden labor that enables companies like Google to develop products around AI, machine learning, and big data. The New York Times calls this

“janitor work,” labeling it the hurdle, rather than the enabling condition, of our big data futures.The second machine age doesn’t like to admit it needs help.


In fact: janitor jobs are already a reality

• The Next 10 Years Of Automation And What It Might Mean For The Job Market - http://on.tcrn.ch/l/2Yma

Espec

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"Long story short, if a large portion of your time at work involves tinkering with spreadsheets, there is likely to be software that will perform your job faster and cheaper than human labor."


Espec

ially

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analy

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"Long story short, if a large portion of your time at work involves tinkering with spreadsheets, there is likely to be software that will perform your job faster and cheaper than human labor." "Mobility is undeniably a rather difficult technical problem, and computers are more likely to manipulate data better than humans than they are to take over most manual labor jobs, at least for the time being."


• Automation to transform the job market within 20 years: Oxford professor - http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-23/automation-will-fundamentally-change-the-job-market-in-20-years/6340512

CREATIVITY


"The more creative you are, the more safe you are from automation."

CREATIVITY


"The more creative you are, the more safe you are from automation."

“We found there was a very clear, strong trend between the creative content of a job and its probability of computerisation and replacement by robots.”

CREATIVITY


• Disruptive technologies: Advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy - http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/business_technology/disruptive_technologies

It’s paramount for organizations and individuals to keep up-to-date



Business leaders should:




•Keep their organizational strategies updated in the face of continually evolving technologies





•Ensure that their organizations continue to look ahead





•Ensure that their organizations continue to look ahead •Use technologies to improve internal performance





•Ensure that their organizations continue to look ahead •Use technologies to improve internal performance•Keep their employees’ skills up-to-date





•Ensure that their organizations continue to look ahead •Use technologies to improve internal performance•Keep their employees’ skills up-to-date •Learn to balance the benefits of emerging technologies with the risk they can pose





•Ensure that their organizations continue to look ahead •Use technologies to improve internal performance•Keep their employees’ skills up-to-date •Learn to balance the benefits of emerging technologies with the risk they can pose

Disruptive technologies can change the game for businesses, creating entirely new products and services, as well as shifting pools of value between producers or from producers to consumers.


• IFTF: Will automation lead to fewer jobs in 10 years? Short answer, yes. - http://www.iftf.org/future-now/article-detail/will-automation-lead-to-fewer-jobs-in-10-years-probably-yes/

But, things might not change anytime soon…


But, things might not change anytime soon…

“The economy is bifurcating between high, high skill and low, low wage. There will likely be fewer good careers to go around unless our education system can figure out how to prep large numbers for high-skill work. Implementation of automated systems will likely spike in the recovery after our next recession, as HR professionals are tasked with managing a fattening budget and choosing between automated systems and hiring costlier human labor. The upside is that this will all happen slowly, much more slowly than fear might

dictate. Systems take a long time to change, and you can’t just plop a robot into a cubicle.”


Our societies might need to change… “ • A World Without Work - http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/07/world-without-work/395294/ • Sympathy for the Luddites - http://nyti.ms/10gJYFb

Our societies might need to change…

"Heavily tax the growing share of income going to the owners of capital, and use the money to cut checks to all adults. This idea—called a “universal basic income”—has received

bipartisan support in the past."“

• A World Without Work - http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/07/world-without-work/395294/ • Sympathy for the Luddites - http://nyti.ms/10gJYFb






If the picture I’ve drawn is at all right, the only way we could have anything resembling a middle-class society — a society in which ordinary citizens have a reasonable assurance of maintaining a decent life as long as they work hard and play by the rules — would be by having a strong social safety net, one that guarantees not just health care but a minimum income, too. And with an ever-rising share of income going to capital rather than labor, that safety net would have to be paid for to an important extent via taxes on profits and/or investment income.




• A World Without Work - http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/07/world-without-work/395294/

The End of Work?


The End of Work?

“ What does the “end of work” mean, exactly? It does not mean the imminence of total unemployment, nor is the United States remotely likely to face, say, 30 or 50 percent

unemployment within the next decade. Rather, technology could exert a slow but continual downward pressure on the value and availability of work—that is, on wages and on the share of prime-age workers with full-time jobs. Eventually, by degrees, that could create a

new normal, where the expectation that work will be a central feature of adult life dissipates for a significant portion of society.


The 9 Essential Trends of the Future of Work


• Half of our jobs might disappear



• Other jobs might change drastically




• "Janitor jobs" already serve to complement AI & robots





• Especially data scientist-like jobs are in trouble






• The more creative your job, the more safe you are







• Business leaders should keep their organizations,

employees & business models up-to-date









• Things however might not go as fast as predicted










• Society will need to undergo a lot of changes










• Society will need to undergo a lot of changes

• The future might mean the "End of Work"

Don’t miss these great Slideshares


• The Future of Jobs: The Onrushing Wave - http://econ.st/L8Vv2H • Justice for Data Janitors - http://publicbooks.org/nonfiction/justice-for-data-

janitors • The Next 10 Years Of Automation And What It Might Mean For The Job Market -

http://on.tcrn.ch/l/2Yma • Automation to transform the job market within 20 years: Oxford professor -

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-23/automation-will-fundamentally-change-the-job-market-in-20-years/6340512



• Sympathy for the Luddites - http://nyti.ms/10gJYFb • A World Without Work - http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/07/

world-without-work/395294/

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