MEGATRENDS

By Anders Lindgren

Discover the tidal waves of changethat break all other trends

MIGHTY

The trends that break all other trendsMEGATRENDS are strong global forces affecting everything and all life on our planet. By viewing the world from a distance and over several centuries, there are 3 revolutionary turning points and 8 global forces of change that stand out and break all other trends. By understanding these deep founded grass root trends and the forces that have shaped the society we have today, it is also easier to predict the future. Especially if we understand how the different forces interact. Our population boom, rapid urbanization, consumption patterns, manufacturing methods and technology craze are all inextricably linked. Anders Lindgren, Futurist,

PR-veteran, Digital Pioneer and Services Marketer

In the same manner as ocean waves can amplify one another, the 8 megatrends are gaining in magnitude and influence, as they interact with one another.Together, they are producing the greatest changes the world has ever seen. Opposing forces and counter cyclical trends will surely arise. They tend to balance things out and are as natural as life itself. They too, are easier to spot when we have a good grasp of the waves of change shaping our past, present and future lives.

Population boom

Global connectedness

Wealthinequality

Technologyrush

Rapidurbanization

Ferocious consumption

Digitaltransformation

Environmentaldegradation

Eight mighty MEGATRENDS stand out

1

2

3

45

6

7

8

1

2

3

Three revolutionary TURNING POINTS

The Agricultural Revolution (16th and 17th Century)

The Industrial Revolution (18th Century)

The Digital Revolution (20th and 21st Century)

stand out

8000 BC

AD 1

6000 BC

4000 BC2000 BC

1700

10 000 BC

1

The first TURNING POINThappened in the 17th century

According to anthropologist it is the most significant change in our way of thinking and living

Two minor things ignited aMONUMENTAL CHANGE

We understood the vital importance of personal HYGIENE

It vastly improved our living conditions

We improved our NUTRITION by cultivating food crops

Historians call it theDawn of Civilization

The AGRICULTURAL REVOLUTION started

Life on EarthEXPLODED!

In both good ways and bad ways

Population boom

Let’s look at the 1st megatrend

300 millions

We have grown from 1 billion people to

8000 BC

AD 1

6000 BC

4000 BC2000 BC

1700

1800

The Agricultural revolution

1 billion

5 millions

in just 200 years

2000

7billions

YEAR 2016

9billions

YEAR 20507 BILLION

The strongest growthwill be seen in AFRICA

It’s population will double by 2050

while Europe’s is expected to shrink.

2

Shortly after the population boom started in 18th century

A 2nd revolution happened

The steam enginegave it power

The industrial revolution came with full speed

1950 20001850 19001800YEAR

2

It fuelled rapid economic progress

Growth in world Domestic Product

Source: Angus Maddison

30

25

20

15

10

5

TRIL

LIO

N D

OLL

ARS

0

1950 20001850 19001800YEAR

2

FACTORIES shoot up like mushrooms

Masses of WORKERS came searching for jobs

Rapid urbanization

That brings us to the 2nd megatrend

In 1800, only 3% of the world’s population lived in cities.

Today it’s

By 2030,two-thirds of the world’s population WILL RESIDE IN CITIES

Source: United Nations Population Division

Explosive growth of

MEGACITIES

1970 Today 2030

30 today and counting: The number of megacities with > 10 million people is expected to grow to over 40 by 2030.

Every year, 70 million people join the URBAN POPULATION

Through a combination of migration and childbirth

The cities are struggling

TO KEEP UP

With growing need for houses, transport, food, water, sanitation, care and education

Air pollution is nowthe deadliest form

and the fourth leading risk factor for premature deaths worldwide

SOURCE: The Cost of Air Pollution 2016, the World Bank

OF POLLUTION…

Managing urban areas has become one of the most important development challenges of the 21st century.”

– JOHN WILMOTH, Director of UN DESA’s Population Division

trying to keep our cities livable for everyone

We face TOUGH CHOICES…

Quai Branly Museum. Photo courtesyhttp://www.verticalgardenpatrickblanc.com/

At the same timeopportunities for SMART solutions abound

Obviously, there is stillplenty of space inRURAL AREAS

Only 3% of Earth’s landmass is urbanized

SOURCE: GRUMP

Many urban people long back to the

In everything from interior to personal development and housing we can see groups of people seeking back to their natural heritage and RURAL LIFE

SOURCE: Jean Viardand Bertrand Hervieu

COUNTRYSIDE

SMARTER TRANSPORTand new digital advances

makes rural development more feasible than ever

Ferocious consumption

Now, let’s look at the 3rd megatrend

World production of goods and serviceshas grown 240-fold

1500

$ 250BILLIONS* 2016

$ 60,000BILLIONS

* In today’s dollars, World economy (GDP) is a monetary measure of the market value of all final goods and services produced. Source: Angus Maddison and the World Bank

For the privilegedindustrialized countries THE WORLD IS AWASH in material goods

…have ABUNDANT

choices… live longer

… travelgreater

distances

… lovetechnology

WE … playmore

… eat more

The median size of today’s supermarket in the USare 46,000 square feet (6 x FOOTBALL FIELDS)

Source: Food Marketing Instititute

choice of groceries

ABUNDANT

1908 2016

ABUNDANTchoice of cars

Average number of channels per US home

1960

6

2014

189

ABUNDANTchoice of TV channels

Source: Nielsen

We have become the greatest consumers

in the history of life on earth

IN SHORT:

People in EMERGING

Also want a richer material life and are swiftly adopting the western consumer culture

like Brazil, China and India and Russia…

economies

India and Chinawill be the new

In 2020 the size of the middle class in Asia Pacific is expected to overtake Europe and America combined

Source: World Bank

BIG SPENDERS

There is a

PARADOXthat puzzles experts

The race for richesdoesn’t seem to MAKE US HAPPIER

The overwhelming abundance of

Often causes choice overload

CHOICE

The gettingand spending

Seem to eat away the time to nourish family ties

CULTURE

A good feeling in the body

and peace of mind!

People are made happy by one thing and one thing only

SOME CLAIM:

The debategoes on…

One thing is for

SURE:

Consumerism drives business growth

Technology rush

That leads us to the 4th megatrend

Time to reach 150 million users, years

Phone TV Cell phone

iPod Facebook Internet Google Earth

89

38

147 5 4 2

Source: The Magazine Imaging Notes. See also Ray Kurzweil's book The Singularity is Near and The Economist

Adoption of new technologies is

ACCELERATING

Number of patent filings in leading economies

800,000

600,000

400,000

0

200,000

Patents has grown to DIZZYING HEIGHTS

Source: WIPO,

China

USA

Japan

EU

There’s been a rush of new

TECHNOLOGIES

AGRI-tech

ROBOTICS-tech

ENERGY-tech

BIO-tech

NANO-tech

COMMUNICATION-tech

Two innovations has

We invented the TRANSISTOR to help us use and send electronic signals

It vastly improved our communication

We invented WRITING and the PRINTING PRESS

than anything elseMEANT MORE

Writing and printing has allowed us toCONQUER THE WORLD

It's pure magic how we have used the written language to teach each other things, invent things and create great wonders.

Writing is possible the most important single invention of the last few thousand years.”

– JARED M. DIAMOND, professor, University of California, author of the Pulitzer book Guns, Germs, and Steel.

The transistor and INTEGRATED CIRCUIT

The rate of progressdefies the

The first transistor invented in 1947 could be held in your hand

Today the worlds tiniest transistor is the size of a single molecule

IMAGINATION

Something else is

TRANSFORMINGour society…

Our explorationof the DIGITAL UNIVERSE

Digital transformation

That brings us to the 5th megatrend

3

In the 20th and 21st Century

It all started with the 3rd

revolutionary turning point

THE DIGITAL REVOLUION

Welcome to the INFORMATION AGE

All of a sudden, almost every aspect of life around the world is being recorded and stored in some information format. That's a real change in our human ecology.”

– PETER LYMAN, (1940 – 2007)professor emeritus at UC Berkeley

Size of circles indicate actual and expected amount of digitally stored information in the world.

DID YOU KNOW?We live in an exploding digital universe. By the start of 2013, there were almost as many bits of data in our digital universe as there are known stars in the physical universe (4.4 zb). By 2020, the amount is expected to be 10x.

Source: The EMC Digital Universe study

2013

2020

0,1 ZB 44 ZB4,4 ZB

2005

By one calculation, we’ve created more information in the last 10 years than in all of human history before that.”

– DANIEL LEVITIN, McGill University psychology professor, author of The Organized Mind: Thinking Straight in the Age of Information Overload.

Never have people had so much INFORMATION & CONTENT

to choose from

It has radically changed how buyers READ AND SHOP

1. We have become digital animals2. We try to avoid content overload3. We want things to be easy4. Everything should happen quickly5. We seek help and guidance6. We want to be seen and heard7. We trust word of mouth

We are adaptingHOW WE PROCESS INFORMATION in 7 ways

The advances in digital communications

ONLINE USAGE HAS SOAREDis directly linked to the fact that

LOG OFF

It’s about turning off, shutting down and logging out from the digital world

mini-boom

Be alert to the IT’S CALLED DIGITAL DETOX! On the new digital free resorts, people are forced to ditch their smart devices as they check in

Businesses have greatOPPORTUNITIES

To streamline their business and delivery model

The smart ones utilizedigital technologies

To create a seamless buying process fit for our digital age

DON’T BE FOOLED!

There are many dangers lurking in the shadows of the digital jungle

Today’s world is more interconnected than ever before. Yet, for all its advantages, increased connectivity brings increased risk of theft, fraud, and abuse. As people become more reliant on modern technology, we also become more vulnerable to cyberattacks.”

– U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY

Global connectedness

That brings us to the 6th megatrend

Global trade hasEXPLODED

Source: Manfred Steger, Globalization: A Very Short Introduction, Oxford 2013

2010

$ 15,000BILLIONS

1947

$ 57BILLIONS*

There’s been a surge in internationalCAPITAL FLOWS

Nothing flowsmore freely thanINFORMATION

Through internetwe have instantworld wide reach

In just 4 years time, between 20 and 30 billion things will be connected to the internet. In 1992 it was 1 million

Source: Gartner, McKinsey

of the world’s population is connected to internet today. In 1995 it was 1%.

Source: Internet Live Stats

40%

25 billion

When trade and information flows..

CULTURE FLOWS

Labor also findmore ways to crossBORDERS

It means that things

SPREADfaster than ever

The good

STUFF

Rise of democratizationNumber of nations scoring 8 or more on Polity IV scale, a measure of democracy

Source: The Polity IV project.

20

100

80

60

40

But also the really

BAD STUFF

The market is more

VOLATILE

The ups and downs in American stock market

Source: Robert Schller, professor of economics at Yale University

800

1600

400

0

2000

1200

(S&P Index adjusted for inflation)

People are more

VULNERABLE

The networked world isn't just a little bigger, a little faster, and a little more complex. It is qualitatively different.”

– JAMES CLEICK, author, reporter, and essayist

Everyone & everything is inextricably

LINKED

We are especiallylinked to thisBLUE BALL

Environmental degradation

It leads us to the 7th megatrend

As a species,we have much to bePROUD OF

… builtwonders

of the world

… landedon the moon

We have

… almost put a stop

to wars

… close toeliminated

child mortality

… tamedwild beasts

In fact, we have overrun the planet

We have wonthe evolutionaryARMS RACE

Our colonization of the planet has been a disaster for plants and wildlife

The bad news is that weDESTROY NATUREin the process

Historical records makes Homo sapiens look like an ecological serial killer.”

– YUVAL NOAH HARARI,professor of history, Hebrew University of Jerusalem and author of the international bestseller Sapiens, A Brief History of Humankind.

All the expertsgive us the sameMESSAGE

United Nations (IPCC), World Resources Institute,NASA, IUCN and WWF

The scale of damageto the natural ecosystemsthat are vital to our livesIS ALARMING

Over the past 50 years, humans have changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively than in any comparable period of time in human history, largely to meet rapidly growing demands for food, fresh water, timber, fiber and fuel. This has resulted in a substantial and largely irreversible loss in the diversity of life on Earth.”

– World Resource Institute,Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

IN SHORT:

and the terror ofthe ecosystem

THE MASTER OF THE PLANET

We have become

It’s time to remember a factthat’s so obvious IT’S EASY TO FORGET

are all products of this living

ECOSYSTEM

The water you drink

The air you breathe

The fuel you use

The food you eat

The timber in your house

The fibers in your clothes…

So, let’s stopdestroyingNATURE

Earth’s natural resources are the very foundation of our lives

Wealth inequality

That brings us to the 8th megatrend

First, the good news:Total global wealth just

US and Europa are the main drivers, but also emerging markets like Asia Pacific and China

HIT A NEW RECORD

New York City is ranked as the second richest city in the world after Tokyo

In China and India, millions have risen out of poverty to join the working MIDDLE CLASS

The bad news:The rich and poor gap

is not only chronic,IT KEEPS WIDENING

The top 1% wealthiest people now own 50% of all household wealth in the world

THE RICHEST of the rich are

getting richer

SOURCE: Credit Suisse and Oxfam

2 billion people live on less than $3 a day

Source: World Bank

TOO LITTLE

Still, far too manyare living with far

71% of the world’spopulation remain

Living on $10 or less per day

Source: Pew Research CentereLOW INCOME OR POOR

The problemwith these kind of

They are just numbers and hardly touch us

STATISTICS1%

Hopefullythis touchesYOUR HEART

And motives you to care and act

Extreme unequalsocieties break with theDEMOCRATIC IDEAL

They are neither stable nor sustainable in the long run

Abraham Lincoln’s legendary definition of democracy: “Democracy is the government of the people, by the people, for the people.”

The world’s leading economists ties it alltogether for us

Growing income inequality is the biggest risk the world may face within the next 10 years. It has already squeezed the middle class in both developed and emerging economies.”

– World Economic Forum,The Global Risks Report 2014

The top 1 per cent have the best houses,the best educations, the best doctors, andthe best lifestyles, but there is one thing that money doesn't seem to have bought: and understanding that their fate is bound up with how the other 99 per cent live. Throughout history, this is something that the top 1 per cent eventually do learn. Too late.”

– Joseph E. Stiglitz,winner of the nobel price in economics

What about the FUTURE?

How can we make it bright for all?

Maybe the cluelies in the scientificDISCOVERIES?

By two of the greatest scientists of all time

The transformation starts in our mindTo transform our future, we must understand and learn from the past. Looking back on the 12,000 year history of humankind, there has really been minor changes in our way of thinking that has ignited monumental changes.We understood the importance of having a language, cultivating food crops, keeping clean, utilizing technology and working together.These five small changes in our mindset started the greatest revolutions the world has ever seen. Perhaps another small change in our way of thinking will be enough to make life on earth better for everyone including animals and plants.It might be, that the discoveries made by today’s physicists hold the key to the greatest transformation of all time.

“The universe, including us, is made up of energy, not matter, and we are all connected”, the scientist say. What if they are right? Perhaps we only need to change our worldview, to discover that the essential character of life, is so much more than our physical bodies and the material world we see around us?Maybe we simply need to open our hearts and minds, to tune into the invisible and universal energy that connects us all?It could be, that when we start to get a sense of this underlying energy, we will naturally begin to honor ourselves and all other humans and life forms with the dignity they deserve. All the best wishes for a bright future.Regards,

© 2016 Anders Lindgren.

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Don’t miss the full reportGET INSIGHT into the trends that break all other trendsMegatrends are strong global forces affecting everything and all life on our planet. By viewing the world from a distance and over several centuries, there are 8 global forces of change that stand out. They are:

1. Population boom2. Rapid urbanization3. Ferocious consumption4. Technology rush5. Digital transformation6. Global connectedness7. Environmental degradation8. Wealth inequality

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