The Perfect Storm

Human Capital Challenges & Opportunities

in the 21st Century

EDWIN MOURIÑO-RUIZ, PH.D.

Today & Tomorrow’s Workplace will be Different

Global/USDemographic

Changes

Leader-EmployeeChanges

OrganizationalChanges

Technological Changes

WorkplaceChanges

EducationalChanges

Challenges

EvolvingOrganizations

3

Technology Timeline & Impact

Radio

TV

Internet

Ipod

13

4

5.4

40 Yrs 30 Yrs 20 Yrs 10 Yrs

38

Pace of technological change accelerate with each new generation of discoveries and applications

1. $38 billion annual revenue generated by 2015 in Smartphone & Tablet apps. 2. Tablets will overtake desktop sales by 20153. More people in U.S. browse the Web from an iPad vs Desktop

9B

50M

100M

4

“When I wrote The World is Flat,

• Facebook didn’t exist (or at least for most Americans),

• Twitter was a sound,

• The Cloud was in the sky,

• 4G was a parking space,

• LinkedIn was a prison,

• Applications is what you sent to college,

• and for most people Skype was a typo”.

Thomas Friedman, on Meet the Press, Sept., 4th, 2011

That all happened in just the last seven years. And what it's done is taken the world from connected to hyperconnected. And that's created a huge opportunity and a huge challenge.

https://www.linkedin.com/today/post/article/20140704000621-19686690-understanding-the-internet-of-everything?trk=tod-posts-recentPosts-

ptlt

Technology’s Impact in the 21st Century:A New Business Perspective & Paradigm Shift – We’re not in Kansas Anymore

6

Technology increasingly dominates both the Economy and Society

Hollywood’s IT Implications New & Evolving Technology in the 21st Century

Future Workforce - Supply is Finite STEM Issues

Source-Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future, Cmte on Prospering in the Global Economy of the 21 st Century, Norm Augustine, et alThe Talent Hunters: The US, China, and India in the battle over skills and jobs. Edward E. Gordon, 2012

U.S. ranked 26th out of 34 countries in math

38% of Ph.D. in science in US are foreign born

80% graduate from H.S. and we’re 16th in college education in the world

U.S. has highest rate of entrance into college – lowest rate to complete

By 2018, U.S. will need 22 million college educated and will be 3 million short

Earning a living in the 21st Century will require more education not less

New Media Zombies – lack basic academic, interpersonal, and critical thinking skills

http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=sir+ken+robinson+changing+education+paradigms&FORM=VIRE1#view=detail&mid=3339F149DE25F841D21C3339F149DE25F841D21C

8

The day Einstein feared… Media Zombies???

Having dinner out with your friends.

Out on a date.

Driving around with friends.

At the beach with friends.

"It has become appallingly obvious that our technology has exceeded our humanity.” Albert Einstein

Skills for the future

Critical Thinking and Problem Solving

Collaboration Initiative Interpersonal

Skills

9

In 2000, A Fairly “Young” World …

04/11/2023 9Source: U.S. Census Bureau Percent of Population Age 60+ Under 5% 5% to 12.4% 12.5% to 20% Above 20%

10

. . . Rapidly Aging by 2025

04/11/2023Source: U.S. Census Bureau Percent of Population Age 60+ 2025Under 5% 5% to 12.4% 12.5% to 20% Above 20%

The Future Demographic Map

11

Potential population in working age group (2020)

Note: Potential surplus is calculated keeping the ratio of working population (age group 15-59) to total population constantSource: U.S. Census Bureau; BCG Analysis – Presentation by Tassu Shervani, Ph.D.

Spain

UK

France

Italy

Mexico

Brazil

US

Germany

Ireland

Russia

Japan

China

Australia

Egypt Malaysia

Indonesia

Philippines 5Mn

India

Labor Shortages and Avenues of Supply

2.1 is Replacement Rate No.

Spain 1.1

Germany 1.4

China 1.4

U.S. 2.0

India 2.8

Mexico 2.8

Japan 1.3

12

Common Denominator???

Alfonso Ribeiro Pablo Picasso Vicente Fox Roberto Clemente Jessica Elba Ricardo Montalban Raquel Welch

Cameron Diaz Cesar Romero Rita Hayworth Emilio Estevez Carolina Herrera Julio Iglesias Sammy Davis Jr.

Zoe Saldana Martin Sheen Anthony Quinn Lynda Carter Frankie Muñiz Walt Disney Oscar de la Renta

Jose Ferrer Bruno Mars William Levy Sofia Vergara Shakira Pablo Casal Sammy Sosa

Habla Español?

13

Hispanic Perspectives and Implications

Facts

44.7 mil

$1 Trillion impact on orgs

US Workforce 25%

Average Age27 compared to 401-1 & 1-8

Education58% H.S.12% Bachelors10% Masters1% Doctorates

In 2017 Latinos will be the majority of entrants the U.S. workforce.

14

Changing WorkforceFour Generations At

Work Veterans (5% workforce, Age 61+)

Dignity – respect and mine for knowledge, Mentor

Boomers (45% workforce, Ages 43--61)

Passion – meaningful work

X’ers (40% workforce, Ages 30-42)

Careers – keep them challenged and learning

Y’ers (10% workforce, Ages <29)

Opportunity – exercise intellectual curiosity and work in teams

14

Source: “Love “Em or Lose “Em” – 26 Strategies that WorkPresented by Human Resource Institute (HRI), 2005Different Communication modes being used

2020 Group

15

Mature workers Essential for OrganizationsNet-Generation, Gen Y, Millennials

• Baby Boomers• Next 20 yrs. 80% of workforce

growth over 50

• Over 70% to continue wkng after retirement

• Avg. Life Expectancy: 1900– 47 2011– 80

• Increasingly more are “Working for a Purpose”

• AARP Best Employer List

• Two experienced for one inexperienced

• 8 Net Gen Norms• Freedom

• Customize and Personalize

• New Scrutinizers

• Corporate Integrity & Openness

• Entertainment & Play @ work

• Collaboration & Relationship Gen

• Speed

• InnovatorsAs the population ages, organizations of the future will no longer be able to rely just on the younger workers.

Aka-Social Cyborg

16

Leadership Development: A Critical InvestmentLeadership Development: A Critical Investment

79% of CEOs believe ability to develop leaders is one of the most important factors for competitive advantage Center for Creative Leadership, 2005

In spite of:

65,000 books on leadership

Billions spent on leadership development

The present situation is that…

Majority of people trust a stranger more than their boss (HBR, Jun 2009)

65% of people prefer a better boss over a raise

79% of CEOs believe ability to develop leaders is one of the most important factors for competitive advantage Center for Creative Leadership, 2005

In spite of:

65,000 books on leadership

Billions spent on leadership development

The present situation is that…

Majority of people trust a stranger more than their boss (HBR, Jun 2009)

65% of people prefer a better boss over a raise

• Lacked respect / support• Lacked leadership skills• Not recognized for my

contribution• Displayed favoritism• Poor employee relations• Incompetent• Limited training opportunities

• Lacked respect / support• Lacked leadership skills• Not recognized for my

contribution• Displayed favoritism• Poor employee relations• Incompetent• Limited training opportunities

51% Supervisor

17

The State of Managing Organizational Change

1. 90% of all companies fail to execute strategy successfully - Balanced Scorecard Collaborative

2. 60% to 70% of technology insertions are ineffective – SEI

3. $75 billion spent annually on failed IT projects and poor management is the culprit - Gartner, Inc.

4. Eight of the 10 largest mergers over the last 10 years failed, destroying $789 billion in shareholder wealth - Fast Company

Why businesses need to always adapt and change

• Only 70 of the Fortune 500 that appeared in 1955 still exist

• Nearly 2000 companies have come and gone since then

• Corporate life expectancy was 75 years and now its less then 15 and declining

• Former Organizations (Extinction Event)• Kodak

• Borders Books

• Circuit City

• Eastern Airlines

• Blockbuster

• Montgomery Wards

• Enron

• Woolworths

• Pan Am

• Arthur Andersen

• New Organizations (Code Halos*)• Pandora

• Amazon

• Netflix

• Microsoft

• Apple

• Google

• Bing

• Facebook

• Starbucks

• BestBuy

• Zappos

*Code Halos Connect Companies, Customers, Devices, Employees and Partners-critical to gaining new business value. SMAC - Social, Mobile, Analytic technology, Cloud Computing

GOODBYE TO 20 T H CENTURY JOBS

1. Top down hierarchies

2. Competing for market share

3. Silo/function-based work

4. Organization-centric

5. Command & Control

6. Hierarchy

7. Work-life balance

8. 30 years in one career

HELLO TO 21S T CENTURY WORK

1. Nimble orgs, transparent communications

2. Creating new markets

3. Project-based work

4. People-centric

5. Trust-based

6. Networks & Relationships

7. Life-work

8. 10+ Careers by 40

“The future starts today, not tomorrow.” John Paul II

Organizational Contradictions & Learning Opportunities

• Innovation and Creativity

• Engaged workforce

• Effective leaders

• Successful Change

• Collaboration and critical thinkers

• Bureaucratic and outdated practices

• Downsizing and ranking

• “Peter Principle” practices

• Flawed and ineffective practices

• Outdated educational framework

“The only sustainable competitive advantage is an organization's ability to learn faster than the competition.” ― Peter M. Senge

21

So What…

“The Significant Problems We Have Cannot Be Solved at the Same Level of Thinking with Which We Created Them.”

-- Albert Einstein

“Tomorrow’s Companies will

need to have the brains of a

Business School Graduate and

the heart of a Social Worker”

Thomas Friedman“The World is Flat”

22

FUTURE Considerations, Implications, & Recommendations for Organizations

Foresee how your organization is ready (or not)

Unexpected should be expected

Trust and Transparency is fundamental

Underestimate these changes at your own risk

Reinvent, Retool, and Reskill

Engaging your workforce is imperative

23

Changes in the 21st Century

Global/USDemographic Changes

Leader-EmployeeChanges

OrganizationalChanges

Technological Changes

WorkplaceChanges

EducationalChanges

Challenges

Today & Tomorrow’s Workplace will be DifferentToday & Tomorrow’s Workplace will be Different

Have a great Conference & FutureThank you!

The mind is everythingWhat you think-you become

Buddha

Edwin Mouriño-Ruiz, Ph.D.

DREDWINM@GMAIL.COMWWW.LINKEDIN.COM/IN/EDWINMOURINO/

Questions?

25

Back Up

26

Resources to Consider and Review

The Evolution of an Organization – Organizational Change Implications

http://www.kotterinternational.com/

28

Skills & Professions for the FutureSkills for the future

1. Critical Thinking and Problem Solving

2. Collaboration

3. Adaptability

4. Initiative

5. Oral & Written Communications

6. Accessing & Analyzing Information

7. Curiosity & Imagination

Best Job Opportunities1. Biomedical Engineer

2. Diagnostic Medical Sonographer

3. Market Research Analysts & Marketing Specialist

4. Physical Therapists

5. Dental Hygienist

6. Audiologists

7. Medical Scientist

8. Veterinarian

9. Occupational Therapist

10.Optometristhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NS2PqTTxFFc&feature=related Dr Tony Wagner

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-best-paying-jobs-of-the-future.html?page=all

29

“The U.S. is not creating more and more high-pay, low-skilled jobs. It’s creating more high-pay($), high-skilled jobs.

No one said that earning a living in the 21st century is going to require less education. It’s going to require more.”

Ed Gordon (author of Future Jobs), The Futurist, November-December 2013

30

Net-Generation, Gen Y, MillennialsShifting Paradigms

• Changing Everything• Work collaboratively

• Consumers > Prosumers

• Education – challenging Pedagogy and teacher centered

• Family-changing relationships

• Citizen change

• Global touch

• 8 Net Gen Norms• Freedom

• Customize and Personalize

• New Scrutinizers

• Corporate Integrity & Openness

• Entertainment & Play @ work

• Collaboration & Relationship Generation

• Speed

• Innovators

Communications mode is different from other generations

Social Networking

Aka-Social Cyborg

31

Mature workers are Essential Talent for Organizations of the Future

• Next 20 years 80% of workforce growth will be over the age of 50

• Over 70% expect to continue working after retirement

• Times are changing

• 1900 – avg. life expectancy – 47

• 2011 – avg. life expectancy – 80

• Increasingly more are “Working for a Purpose”

• AARP Best Employer List

• Employee development

• Health benefits

• Age of the workforce

• Alternative work arrangements and time off

• Retirement benefits and pensions

• For every two experienced workers leaving the workforce, only one (relatively inexperienced) worker joins it.

As the population ages, organizations of the future will no longer be able to rely just on the younger workers.

32

Impact of Change on Productivity

Effective transition affects the depth and breadth of the productivity gapEffective transition affects the depth and breadth of the productivity gap

Productivity

4.8 hours

Social “stuff”

1.5 hours

Personal“stuff”

1.7 hours

In 8Hours

Productivity

1.2 Hours

Speculation Gossip

3.2 hours

“ME” Issues

1.8 hours

What /How

1.8 hours

In 8

Hours

Pre Transition During Transition

32

Source – Pritchett & Associates

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2zqTYgcpfg

X

X

X

CURRENT STATE

NEWSTATE

SENSEOF STABILITY

SENSEOF CONSTANCY

INTELLECTUALACCEPTANCE

•CONCEPTUALLY•IMPLICATIONS UNCLEAR

DECISION•LET’S MOVE AHEAD•IDENTIFY WHAT STEPS/ ACTIONS NEED TO BE TAKEN

Commitment•IT “CLICKS”•INTEGRATION•IMPLEMENTATION•RESULTS

IMPATIENCEUNCERTAINTY

LEARNINGMISTAKES

THESTRUGGLE

T r a n s i t i o n

X

CHANGE Announced

TIME

X

What May Change in as a ResultPeople/Behavior

Organizational cultureProcess – ModelCommunication

SystemsStructure

33

Why do businesses need to Change?

34“An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential”. Ray Kurzweil - futurist

Of the 500 companies that appeared on the first Fortune 500 list in 1955, less than 70 hold a place on the list today. Nearly 2,000 companies have appeared on the list since its inception - most are now long gone.  However, companies like P&G, Johnson & Johnson and GE have had more than a century of sustained success by holding tight to core values and continuing to innovate. And some of the most powerful companies on todays list—businesses like Intel, Microsoft, Apple, Dell, and Google—grew from nothing upon entirely new technologies.

Drivers of Transformational Change

35Passion moves mountains. Creating a “passionate enterprise” is a modern leadership imperative. Tom Peters

Fifty years ago, “milking the cash cow” could go on for many decades. What’s different today is that globalization and the shift in power in the marketplace from buyer to seller is dramatically shortening the life expectancy of firms that are merely milking their cash cows. Half a century ago, the life expectancy of a firm in the Fortune 500 was around 75 years. Now it’s less than 15 years and declining even further.

Implementing & Institutionalizing Change

+ Skills + Incentive + Resources + Action Plan =

Where

Vision + + Incentive + Resources + Action Plan =

How ?

Vision + Skills + + Resources + Action Plan =

WIIFM ?

Vision + Skills + Incentive + + Action Plan =

With What ?

Leadership Commitment & Support

Vision + Skills + Incentive + Resources + Action Plan = Change!

+

False Starts

Frustration

Gradual Change

Anxiety

Confusion

Vision + Skills + Incentive + Resources + =

Game Plan ?

Did You Know… ?Did You Know… ?

Source: Leigh Branham, “The 7 Hidden Reasons Employees Leave”, 2005 Source: Leigh Branham, “The 7 Hidden Reasons Employees Leave”, 2005

12% of Employees leave for more $ money

88% of Employees leave for other reasons

89% of Managers believe employees leave for more $ money

11% of Managers believe employees leave for other reasons

80% of Managers believe employees just happy to have a job53% of employees feel this way

Many Workers Could Jump Ship USA Today, Aug 2009

• Replacement costs• 150% of employees salary

38

Why They LeaveWhy They Leave

• Lacked respect / support

• Job duties boring / no challenge

• Lacked leadership skills

• Not recognized for my contribution

• Displayed favoritism• Poor employee

relations• Incompetent• Lacked technical skills• Limited training

opportunities

• Lacked respect / support

• Job duties boring / no challenge

• Lacked leadership skills

• Not recognized for my contribution

• Displayed favoritism• Poor employee

relations• Incompetent• Lacked technical skills• Limited training

opportunities

• Discrimination• Harassment• Benefits• Coworkers’ attitudes

Source: Leigh Branham, “The 7 Hidden Reasons Employees Leave”, 2005

40

Considerations and Recommendations

Learning Organization

Engage Internally & Externally

Anticipate & Adapt

Decide on Priorities

Environmentalist

Relationships of Respect & Recognition

41

Four Generations At Work Veterans (5% workforce, Age 61+)

Dignity – respect and mine for knowledge, Mentor

Link – help them leave their legacy

Boomers (45% workforce, Ages 43--61)

Passion – meaningful work

Reward – notice and thank them for their dedication and commitment

X’ers (40% workforce, Ages 30-42)

Careers – keep them challenged and learning

Information – keep them in the loop, provide flexibility, work/life balance

Y’ers (10% workforce, Ages <29)

Opportunity – exercise intellectual curiosity and work in teams

Goals - help create multiple career options and a sense of security

41

Changing PopulationChanging

Population

Source: “Love “Em or Lose “Em” – 26 Strategies that WorkPresented by Human Resource Institute (HRI), 2005Different Communication modes being used2020 Group

ExternalEnvironment

OrganizationalDepartmental

Success

SatisfactionRetentionProductivityLoyaltyTrustCommitmentCustomer Loyalty

Organizational Benefits

Organizational/DepartmentalEnvironment/Culture

Co-locatedEmployees

ExternalEnvironment

ExternalEnvironment

ExternalEnvironment

Employee

Leader

LMX Virtual/Co-located Model

Leader-Employee RelationshipsVirtualEmployees

EmployeeSatisfaction

CustomerLoyalty

BottomLine Impact

LeaderBehavior

Source: Edwin Mouriño, Ph.D., Barry University, 2005

43

The Future of

Technology, Work, and our Lives???

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