44
太陽能產業 林安(台大財金系)、崔立薇(台大經濟系)、李采寧(台大財金所)、陳昱璋(台大國企系) 2016.03.19

201604 junior研究報告 太陽能產業

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

  • ()()()()

    2016.03.19

  • Agenda

  • Summary

  • 01

  • /

    (/)

  • Poly-silicon / Wafer

    70%

    70%10%-

    ()OCI()Wacker()HemlockREC()

    Nexolon() LDK()GCL()Rene Solar() ()

    ()

    Top 5(90%up)

    -/

    Poly-Silicon

    >40%/ Wafer/Ingot

    (SharpKyoceraSuntech)

    30-60%40-70%

    Source: IEK

  • DuPontFerro+Heraeus()Toyo()Analog() ()

    ()

    -

    ()20%

    (3691)

    30-40% 2015 201539.65

    Source: 103EnergyTrend

  • PV Cell Module System

    50%20%-

    70% ()

    (PV inverter)

    First Solar() Yingli() JA Solar()Trina()

    ()() (/)()Kyocera()

    SMA()KACO()Fronius()Xantrex()

    Top 4(61%)

    ()

    Source: IEK

    PV Cell 60-70%

    10-20%5%

    Module EnergyTrend

    2070%35%

    Cell 60-70%EVA/Glass/Frame10-15%

  • ()

    803 (2015 1H) 5000 MW (2015) 9972 MW (2014)

    Source: PIDA

    50%

    16%

    13%

    8%

    7%

    6%

    23%

    17%

    15%

    8%

    7%

    5%

    5%

    4%

    3%

    3%

    10%

    1032015 EnergyTrend, Feb.2015

    23 60 14 3 2015 1H (%)

    ()

    2015Q4 : -10.16% : -2.54% : 0.71%

  • ( / W)

    90%

    15-24%

    0.32-0.38

    10-17% 0.30-0.39

    ()(Amorphous Cells)(CIGS)(CdTe)(Thin Film Silicon Solar Cells)(DSSC)

    8-13% 10-17%

    GaAsCdTe GaAs CdTe

    19-32% GaAs 10-15% CdTe

    *30%36.8%42-57%

    Source: IEK$US/Watt (2016/3/9)

  • 02

  • Source: Renewables global status report 2015

    2014 40GW

    80% 50% (FIT)70%

  • Source: Renewables global status report 2015

    :

    Green Growth Strategy New Growth Strategy 12th Five-Year Plan Green Growth Strategy the 10th Malaysia Plan

    60%

  • 03

  • 2015

    /

    0.96

    2.30-2.45

    0.93-1.06

    2.78-2.80

    4.67-6.48

  • 1978 (PURPA)

    (Avoidable Cost)

    1980 PV40%4,000

    1992 (EPA)

    2004 (PTC)

  • ()

    20056

    200620162005PV2.8/Wp32

    20057

    PV(ITC)10%30%20062007PV30%2000

    20058

    PVPV25%PV

  • PV20 (2014)City State Total Solar PV Installed (MW-DC)

    Total Solar PV Rank

    Per Capita Solar PV Installed (Watts-DC/Person) Per Capita Rank

    Los Angeles CA 170 1 44 15

    San Diego CA 149 2 110 4

    Phoenix AZ 115 3 76 9

    Indianapolis IN 107 4 127 2

    San Jose CA 105 5 110 3

    Honolulu HI 96 6 276 1

    San Antonio TX 88 7 63 10

    Denver CO 58 8 89 7

    New York NY 41 9 5 44

    New Orleans LA 36 10 94 6

    San Francisco CA 30 11 36 19

    Albuquerque NM 28 12 50 14

    Raleigh NC 27 13 62 11

    Sacramento CA 25 14 53 12

    Las Vegas NV 24 15 40 16

    Newark NJ 22 16 78 8

    Austin TX 21 17 24 23

    Portland OR 21 18 34 21

    Jacksonville FL 14 19 17 27

    Boston MA 13 20 20 24

    200.1%PV6.5%

    Environment America Research & Policy Center

  • PV (2014)

    Environment America Research & Policy Center

  • ITC20162022

    (Investment Tax CreditITC) 30%10%

    (Energy Policy Act of 2005) 2006112007 (Tax Relief and Health Care Act of 2006) (Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008)

  • 1991 FIT 1991

    Feed-in Tariff

    Feed-in Tariff (FIT)

    THE ENERGY FOX

  • 1999-2000

    1999 10

    2000 10 202010 12.5%

  • 1999-2000 () 1991

    Bechberger Reiche 10%

    2000 2009 9,800MW

    Statistisches Jahrbuch 2010

    1 2 3 5 6 8 11 18 23 32 76 186 296 439

    1074

    1980 2812

    3977 5994

    9800

    0

    2000

    4000

    6000

    8000

    10000

    12000

    1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

    MW

    p

  • 2010 2050 2010 2050 2020

    18% 2030 30% 2050 60% 2050 80%

    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.9 3.2

    4.3 5.2 3.4 3.1 3.6 3.8 4.3 4.7 4.8 4.1 4.5 5.2 6.2 6.6

    7.7 7.6 9.3 10.2 11.6

    14.2 15.1 16.3 17.0

    20.4 23.7 25.5

    0.0

    5.0

    10.0

    15.0

    20.0

    25.0

    30.0

    %

    AGEE-Stat

  • 2010 2050 2010 2050 2020

    18% 2030 30% 2050 60% 2050 80%

    AGEE-Stat

    3.8 15%

    8.7 34% 5.2 20%

    4.6 18%

    1.9 8%

    0.9 4%

    0.3 1% (2013)

  • FIT2004

    2000 FIT

    2004-2011/kWh

    (kW) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011< 30 57.40 54.53 51.80 49.21 46.75 43.01 39.14 28.7430-100 54.60 51.87 49.28 46.82 44.48 40.91 37.23 27.34100-1000 54.00 51.30 48.74 46.30 43.99 39.58 35.23 25.87> 1000 54.00 51.30 48.74 46.30 43.99 33.00 29.37 21.57

  • PV ()

  • 04

  • 17%

  • 201291.43%2013164.03%201460.15%

    23.88GW 2020150GW

    15% 20122%203018%

  • 2013 2015750201449

    65

  • 2015

    16.5%17% 30% CIGSCdTe

    12%13%13%12%

    GW1000MW

    100MW50MW50MW100

    100MW 50MW

  • 5.2GW2.5GW7.7GW

    1GW

    270228

  • 1

    2 20%

  • A+

  • FIT

    20

  • 0.5%

    491%

  • 1041.1GW0.61%

    4.5-64.6-6.4

  • 0.61%

  • 10320.4%20.6% 104P-Perc

    21.10%19.5% 10522%

  • 202520GW 35%