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  • 1. Climate Forecasting UnitSUMMERSeasonal Forecasts forGlobal Solar PV EnergyMelanie Davis, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Fabian Lienert

2. Climate Forecasting UnitFig. S1.2.1: Summer solar GHI availability from 1981-2011 (ERA-Interim)m/sStage A: Solar GHI (Global Horizontal Irradiance) Resource AssessmentSolar PV energy potential: Where is it the sunniest?Darker red regions of this map show where global solar GHI is highest in summer, and lighter yellow regionswhere it is lowest.N.b. This information is based on reanalysis* data (ERA-Interim) not direct observations.* Reanalysis information comes from an objective combination of observations and numerical models that simulate one or more aspects of the Earth system, togenerate a synthesised estimate of the state of the climate system and how it changes over time.SUMMER Solar PV Forecasts(June + July + August) 3. Climate Forecasting UnitFig. S1.2.2: Summer solar GHI inter-annual variability from 1981-2011 (ERA-Interim)m/sStage A: Solar GHI Resource AssessmentSolar PV energy volatility: Where does solar radiation vary the greatest?Darker red regions of this map show where global solar GHI varies the most from one year to the next insummer, and lighter yellow regions where it varies the least.N.b. This information is based on reanalysis* data (ERA-Interim) not direct observations.SUMMER Solar PV Forecasts(June + July + August) 4. Climate Forecasting UnitEuropeSummer solar GHI availability Summer solar GHI inter-annual variabilitym/sAreas ofinterest:N.Continent/C-N.Chile-ArgentinaborderCentralContinentS.W.Continent/C-C.E.Continent/W-N.W.ContinentPapua NewGuineaS.America Africa Asia AustraliaN.C.America/S.W.CanadaN.AmericaUK/Norway/Sweden/S.Finland/N.MainlandEuropeStage A: Solar GHI Resource AssessmentWhere is solar PV energy resource potential and variability highest?By comparing both the summer global solar GHI availability and inter-annual variability, it can be seen thatthere are several key areas (listed above) where solar GHI is both abundant and highly variable.These regions are most vulnerable to solar GHI variability over climate timescales, and are therefore ofgreatest interest for seasonal forecasting in summer.SUMMER Solar PV Forecasts(June + July + August) 5. Climate Forecasting UnitFig. S2.2.1: Summer solar GHI ensemble mean correlation(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time, once a year from 1981-2010)timeforecast+ 1.0obs. forecast- 1.0forecastexample 1forecast- 1.0example 2example 3Stage B: Solar GHI Forecast Skill Assessment1Stvalidation of the climate forecast system:The skill of a climate forecast system, to predict global solar GHI variability in summer 1 month ahead, ispartially shown in this map. Skill is assessed by comparing the mean of a summer solar GHI forecast, madeevery year since 1981, to the reanalysis observations over the same period. If they follow the same variabilityover time, the skill is positive. This is the case even if their magnitudes are different (see example 1 and 2).PerfectForecastSame asClimatologyWorsethanClima-tologySUMMER Solar PV Forecasts(June + July + August)Can the solar forecast mean tell us aboutthe solar GHI resource variabilityat a specific time?SolarGHI 6. Climate Forecasting UnitFig. S2.2.1: Summer solar GHI ensemble mean correlation(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time, once a year from 1981-2010)Stage B: Solar GHI Forecast Skill Assessment1Stvalidation of the climate forecast system:Dark red regions of the map show where the climate forecast system demonstrates the highest skill insummer seasonal forecasting, with a forecast issued 1 month in advance. White regions show where there isno available forecast skill, and blue regions where the climate forecast system performs worse than a randomprediction. A skill of 1 corresponds to a climate forecast that can perfectly represent the past observations.SUMMER Solar PV Forecasts(June + July + August)PerfectForecastSame asClimatologyWorsethanClima-tologyCan the solar forecast mean tell us aboutthe solar GHI resource variabilityat a specific time? 7. Climate Forecasting UnitFig. S2.2.2: Summer solar GHI CR probability skill score(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time, once a year from 1981-2010)timeforecast+ 1.0obs. forecast- 1.0forecastexample 1forecast- 1.0example 2example 3Stage B: Solar GHI Forecast Skill Assessment2ndvalidation of the climate forecast system:The skill of a climate forecast system, to predict global solar GHI variability in summer 1 month ahead, is fullyshown in this map. Here, skill is assessed by comparing the full distribution (not just the mean value as in theprevious map) of a summer solar GHI forecast, made every year since 1981, to the observations over thesame period. If they follow the same magnitude of variability over time, the skill is positive (example 2).PerfectForecastSame asClimatologyWorsethanClima-tologySUMMER Solar PV Forecasts(June + July + August)Can the solar forecast distribution tell usabout the magnitude of the solar GHIresource variability and its uncertainty atspecific time?SolarGHI 8. Climate Forecasting UnitFig. S2.2.2: Summer solar GHI CR probability skill score(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time, once a year from 1981-2010)Stage B: Solar GHI Forecast Skill Assessment2ndvalidation of the climate forecast system:Dark red regions of the map show where the climate forecast system demonstrates the highest skill insummer seasonal forecasting, with a forecast issued 1 month in advance. White regions show where there isno available forecast skill, and blue regions where the climate forecast system performs worse than a randomprediction. A skill of 1 corresponds to a climate forecast that can perfectly represent the past observations.PerfectForecastSame asClimatologyWorsethanClima-tologySUMMER Solar PV Forecasts(June + July + August)Can the solar forecast distribution tell usabout the magnitude of the solar GHIresource variability and its uncertainty atspecific time? 9. Climate Forecasting UnitEuropeAreas ofinterest:N.Brasil?/E.Brasil/N.Chile/N.ArgentinaC-C.E.Indone-sia/W.China/UAE/S.E.SaudiArabiaC.W.Australia/Pacific IslesS.America AfricaAsiaAustraliaS.E.Canada/CaribbeanIslesN.AmericaSpain/Portugal/Medite-rranean/S.E.Europe/W.Great Britain/S.Norway/S.Sweden/N.Finland?Summer solar GHI magnitude, and itsuncertainty forecast skillSummer solar GHI variability forecast skillSolar GHI variabilityforecast skill onlySolar GHI magnitude and its uncertainty forecast skillS-S.Africa/N.Mozambi-que/EthiopiaStage B: Solar GHI Forecast Skill Assessment Where is solar GHI forecast skill highest?By comparing both the summer global solar GHI forecast skill assessments, it can be seen that there areseveral key areas (listed above) where solar GHI forecasts are skilful in assessing its variability, magnitudeand uncertainty These regions show the greatest potential for the use of operational summer wind forecasts,and are therefore of greatest interest to seasonal solar GHI forecasting in summer.SUMMER Solar PV Forecasts(June + July + August) 10. Climate Forecasting UnitStage B: Solar GHI Forecast Skill AssessmentMagnitude and uncertainty forecast skillVariability forecast skillm/sm/sm/sSPRING Wind ForecastsThese four maps compare the seasonal summer solar GHI global forecast skill maps (bottom) alongside thesummer global solar GHI availability and inter-annual variability map (top). It can be seen that there areseveral key areas (highlighted above) where the forecast skill is high in both its variability, magnitude anduncertainty, and the solar GHI is both abundant and highly variable. These regions demonstrate wheresummer seasonal solar GHI forecasts have the greatest value and potential for operational use.Areas ofInterest:(Forecast skill)Areas ofInterest:(Resources)Solar GHI resource inter-annual variabilitySolar GHI resource availabilityStage A: Solar GHI Resource AssessmentVariability forecast skillWhere is solar GHI forecast skill highest?Where is solar resource potential + volatility highestSUMMER Solar PV Forecasts(June + July + August)EuropeN.Brasil?/E.Brasil/N.Chile/N.ArgentinaC-C.E.Indone-sia/W.China/UAE/S.E.SaudiArabiaC.W.Australia/Pacific IslesS.America Africa Asia AustraliaS.E.Canada/CaribbeanIslesN.AmericaSpain/Portugal/Medite-rranean/S.E.Europe/W.Great Britain/S.Norway/S.Sweden/N.Finland?S-S.Africa/N.Mozambi-que/EthiopiaEuropeN.Continent/C-N.Chile-ArgentinaborderCentralContinentS.W.Continent/C-C.E.Continent/W-N.W.ContinentPapua NewGuineaS.America Africa Asia AustraliaN.C.America/S.W.CanadaN.AmericaUK/Norway/Sweden/S.Finland/N.MainlandEurope 11. Climate Forecasting Unit%Areas of Interest Identified:(Resources and Forecast Skill)S.AmericaN.Brasil?/E.Brasil/C-N.Chile-ArgentinaborderS.AmericaFig. S3.2.1: Probabilistic forecast of (future) summer 2011, solar GHI most likely tercile(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time)Stage C: Operational Solar GHI ForecastThis operational solar forecast shows the probability of global solar GHI to be higher (red), lower (blue) ornormal (white) over the forthcoming summer season, compared to their mean value over the past 30 years.As the forecast season is summer 2011, this is an example of solar GHI forecast information that could havebeen available for use within a decision making process in May 2011.SUMMER Solar PV Forecasts(June + July + August)EuropeW.Great Britain/S.Norway/S.SwedenAfricaEthiopia W.ChinaAsia 12. Climate Forecasting Unit%Areas of Interest Identified:(Resources and Forecast Skill)Stage C: Operational Solar GHI ForecastThe key areas of highest interest are shown, identified in the stages A and B of the forecast methodology.These regions demonstrate where summer seasonal solar GHI forecasts have the greatest value andpotential for operational use. The areas that are blanked out either have lower forecast skill in summer (StageB) and/or lower solar GHI availability and inter-annual variability (Stage A).Fig. S3.2.1: Probabilistic forecast of (future)

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