A presentation by

Dr Cindy Frewen Wuellner, FAIA, @urbanverse Frewen Architects and University of Houston Futures Studies For University of Kansas Introduction to Architecture 02011

urban futures

language

space

timehttp://twitter.com/urbanverse http://urbanverse.posterous.com

Dr Cindy Frewen Wuellner, FAIA

@urbanverse

3

public projects

housing & schools

master planning

language futures

architecture cities

my path

wearables

movables

buildingscities

language

wearables

movables

buildingscities

Urban Futures Perspective

I. Thinking About the Future?

II. Big Urban Futures

III.Architecture, Language + You

I. How do you ….

Think about the future?

The best way to predict the future is to invent it.

Alan Kay (modeled Macintosh & Windows)

Continuous Discontinuous

Given Trends

Urbanization Aging

Events Sept 11

Hurr Katrina

Chosen Incremental

Education Integration

Transformation New leadership Internet/www

4 Types of Change

The Real Problem of Change

S-Curve

S-Curve

Peter Bishop, 2003

Herbert Spencer – Technology & Progress

Galtung & Inayatullah, 1997

Industrial Society

Future Society,altruistic

Militant Society

Barbarism

Oswald Spengler – Growth and Decline

Birth

Pre-culture

Late Culture

Mass civilization

Death

Time

IDEA

Galtung & Inayatullah, 1997

Birth

Pre-Culture

Late culture

Mass culture

Death

IDEA

TIME

Riane Eisler – Domination/Partnership

Galtung & Inayatullah, 1997

Every day futures…

How to apply futures thinking

Applied Futures WorkForecasting

• Describing the future

• With systems, cycles, trends, scenarios

Planning• Visions = Preferred

Futures

• Influencing, strategies

3 Types of Futures ThinkingFutures Forces Thinking TechniquesProbable Constants Definite Historical Trends

Extrapolation

Plausible Discontinuities Imaginative ScenariosSurprises

Preferable Choices Visionary VisioningImages Planning

From Peter Bishop, 2003

Futures MethodsScanning Research, STEEP Forecasting Systems, Trends, Scenarios Visioning Preferred Vision, GoalsPlanning Mission, StrategyActing Initiatives, Results

Immediate Environment

STEEP Environmental Scan

STEEP Environmental Scan

Social Political

EnvironmentalTechnologicalEconomic

You

CausesCauses

Metaphors, Myths, ImagesMetaphors, Myths, Images

Problem Problem

Discourse Analysis

WorldviewWorldview

Litany, Descriptions

Systems Analysis

Causal Layered Analysis

Continuous

Years

Generations

Decades

Time Scale of Change

Inayatullah, 2004

II. Big Urban Futures

What do you think might happen?

Cities and people

3 Billion More People

Population Forecasts for Selected Countries 2010 - 2100

You

Nigeria

U.S.

India

China

US Population to 2050

320m

410m

550m

You

Population Over Age 60 2005 - 2045

You

You @60

Megacities 1959 – 2000 - 2015

You

Urbanization 1950 – 2007 - 2030 You

Urban – Rural 1950 - 2030

You

Planet resources

Limits to growth

World Oil Production 2002- 2012

You

Areas with High Water Stress

You

Areas with Degraded and Very Degraded Soil

Africa’s High Risk Areas for Climate Change

What happens? Prices are going up…

Food

EnergyWater

What kind of cities??

Choices or business as usual?

How much land do we need to live like…..

ParisParis

London

S.F.

N.Y.

Singapore Houston

US home size doubled in 50 years

2000: 2,200sf1970: 1,500sf1950: 1,000sf

III. Architecture, Language + You

What kinds of cities will you make?

Ways to think about urban futures … 1.Language2.Social3.Co-creating4.Steady state 5.diplomacy

1. Architecture and language

The city as language

44

Utopia

Gaia

High Tech

Mythic Cities

Fortress

45

metaphoric cities

gardenmachinebirdfamily

Omega Center for Sustainable Living

Rhinebeck NYBNIM Architects

Living Cities

Seed CathedralShanghai World Expo

UK PavilionThomas Heatherwick, architect

Beauty with meaning

Oakland CA Existing Street

People first

Oakland CA w/ infill, trees, transit, bike lanes

From Dead Zones To Lovable

2. The Social City

IRL, virtual, and you

A

The Conversation Prism Brian Solis + JESS

Entry Points

Mobile Phone Users 2000 - 2010

From 1 billion to 5 billion users in a decade

Social networks; peer to peer

Representations of reality; maps

Second Life

Digita

l Add

ed to

Real W

orldNew

Fant

asy W

orlds

Metaverse Roadmap modified

Layar – on android cell phone

New York Phantom City Tour

Phantomcity.org

Heads Up display wearable lenses

Vernor Vinge Rainbows End

Heads Up Display

Times Square NYC Networked Omniscient Exhibit

You’ll know the social city far differently.

3. Co-Creating the City

Hacking the City

The Underbelly Project

Abandoned Subway

New York City

Guerrilla art underground

Women, Morro de Providencia

Rio de Janeiro, JR Artist

Guerilla arthillside

Guerilla gardening

D

Germany electrical box bench

DIY Cities

Sydney Opera HouseJorn Utzon Architect

Making cities, not just looking

4. Steady State Cities

How do we measure progress?

Baltimore,

CitiStats

Data-driven choices

Most Livable Vienna, Austria - Mercer

Greenest Cities

Portland Oregon

Well-being

Mapping Walk Scores . . . . Seattle

Walkability

Affecting Where We LiveZillow

5. Urban Diplomacy

Coming together

Resolving wicked problemsLos Angeles …..17 million people, 200 municipalities, 5 counties, 5 watersheds share geography, water, air, nature, transportation, public resources, economy, culture and identity.

Who Owns the Water?

Who Owns the Skyline?

Who Owns the Sidewalk?

Who Decides Transportation Options?

Copenhagen Bike Highway Sharing the city, not just consuming.

How do we live together, diversity in harmony?

Urban Futures

What futures will you make?

What stories will your city tell future gens?

Dr Cindy Frewen Wuellner, FAIA, @urbanverse Frewen Architects and University of Houston Futures Studies http://twitter.com/urbanverse http://urbanverse.posterous.com

Thank you!