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CABOT’S 22 ND ANNUAL INVESTMENT CONFERENCE & LUNCHEON Friday, September 23, 2011

2011 Cabot Investor Conference - 2011 Year in Review

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Page 1: 2011 Cabot Investor Conference - 2011 Year in Review

CABOT’S 22ND ANNUAL INVESTMENT CONFERENCE & LUNCHEON

Friday, September 23, 2011

Page 2: 2011 Cabot Investor Conference - 2011 Year in Review

CABOT’S YEAR IN REVIEWPresented by: Dennis Wassung, CFA, Portfolio Manager

Page 3: 2011 Cabot Investor Conference - 2011 Year in Review

2011 BY ASSET CLASS

2011 thru 9/22/11

GOLD

BONDS

REITS

NASDAQ

COM

MODIT

IES

S&P 5

00

MID

CAPS

FOREI

GN DEV

ELOPED

SMALL

CAPS

EMER

GING M

ARKETS

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Page 4: 2011 Cabot Investor Conference - 2011 Year in Review

2011 BY COUNTRY: TOP & BOTTOM 5

2011 thru 9/22/11

THAILAND

SOUTH AFRICA

UNITED STATES

TURKEY

SOUTH KOREA

ARGENTINA

CZECH REPUBLIC

FRANCE

HUNGARY

EGYPT

-40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%

Page 5: 2011 Cabot Investor Conference - 2011 Year in Review

2011 BY SECTOR

2011 thru 9/22/11

UTILI

TIES

CONSUM

ER S

TAPLE

S

HEALT

H CARE

INFO

RMATI

ON T

ECH

CONSUM

ER D

ISCR

TELE

COM

SVC.

ENER

GY

INDUSTR

IALS

MATE

RIALS

FINANCIA

LS-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Page 6: 2011 Cabot Investor Conference - 2011 Year in Review

12/3

1/20

10

1/11

/201

1

1/22

/201

1

2/2/

2011

2/13

/201

1

2/24

/201

1

3/7/

2011

3/18

/201

1

3/29

/201

1

4/9/

2011

4/20

/201

1

5/1/

2011

5/12

/201

1

5/23

/201

1

6/3/

2011

6/14

/201

1

6/25

/201

1

7/6/

2011

7/17

/201

1

7/28

/201

1

8/8/

2011

8/19

/201

1

8/30

/201

1

9/10

/201

1

9/21

/201

1-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

S&P 500

2011 Market EventsDebt

Ceiling Debacle

S&P Downgrad

es U.S.

Weak Economic Data

2011 thru 9/22/11

Page 7: 2011 Cabot Investor Conference - 2011 Year in Review

12/3

1/20

10

1/11

/201

1

1/22

/201

1

2/2/

2011

2/13

/201

1

2/24

/201

1

3/7/

2011

3/18

/201

1

3/29

/201

1

4/9/

2011

4/20

/201

1

5/1/

2011

5/12

/201

1

5/23

/201

1

6/3/

2011

6/14

/201

1

6/25

/201

1

7/6/

2011

7/17

/201

1

7/28

/201

1

8/8/

2011

8/19

/201

1

8/30

/201

1

9/10

/201

1

9/21

/201

1-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

S&P 500

2011 Market EventsDebt

Ceiling Debacle

S&P Downgrad

es U.S.

Weak Economic Data

2011 thru 9/22/11

?What’s Next?

Page 8: 2011 Cabot Investor Conference - 2011 Year in Review

10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD

12/3

1/20

07

3/31

/200

8

7/1/

2008

10/1

/200

8

1/1/

2009

4/1/

2009

7/1/

2009

10/1

/200

9

1/1/

2010

4/1/

2010

7/1/

2010

10/1

/201

0

1/1/

2011

4/1/

2011

7/1/

2011

0%

0.5%

1%

1.5%

2%

2.5%

3%

3.5%

4%

4.5%

Yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury

The 10-Year Treasury yield is now near 60-year

lows!

12/31/07 thru 9/16/11

Page 9: 2011 Cabot Investor Conference - 2011 Year in Review

A YEAR AGO…STOCKS VS. BONDS

2010 thru 9/16/10

12/3

1/20

09

1/11

/201

0

1/22

/201

0

2/2/

2010

2/13

/201

0

2/24

/201

0

3/7/

2010

3/18

/201

0

3/29

/201

0

4/9/

2010

4/20

/201

0

5/1/

2010

5/12

/201

0

5/23

/201

0

6/3/

2010

6/14

/201

0

6/25

/201

0

7/6/

2010

7/17

/201

0

7/28

/201

0

8/8/

2010

8/19

/201

0

8/30

/201

0

9/10

/201

0-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Stocks Bonds

Page 10: 2011 Cabot Investor Conference - 2011 Year in Review

FULL YEAR 2010STOCKS VS. BONDS

2010

12/3

1/20

09

1/14

/201

0

1/28

/201

0

2/11

/201

0

2/25

/201

0

3/11

/201

0

3/25

/201

0

4/8/

2010

4/22

/201

0

5/6/

2010

5/20

/201

0

6/3/

2010

6/17

/201

0

7/1/

2010

7/15

/201

0

7/29

/201

0

8/12

/201

0

8/26

/201

0

9/9/

2010

9/23

/201

0

10/7

/201

0

10/2

1/20

10

11/4

/201

0

11/1

8/20

10

12/2

/201

0

12/1

6/20

10

12/3

0/20

10-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Stocks Bonds

Page 11: 2011 Cabot Investor Conference - 2011 Year in Review

EXTENDED TO TODAY…STOCKS VS. BONDS

12/31/09 thru 9/17/11

12/3

1/20

09

3/3/

2010

5/3/

2010

7/3/

2010

9/3/

2010

11/3

/201

0

1/3/

2011

3/3/

2011

5/3/

2011

7/3/

2011

9/3/

2011

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Stocks Bonds

Page 12: 2011 Cabot Investor Conference - 2011 Year in Review

EQUITY MARKETS HAVE LONG-TERM VALUE:Dividend Yield Is Higher Than 10-Year Treasury

Yield

1998-Current

7/3/

1998

1/3/

1999

7/3/

1999

1/3/

2000

7/3/

2000

1/3/

2001

7/3/

2001

1/3/

2002

7/3/

2002

1/3/

2003

7/3/

2003

1/3/

2004

7/3/

2004

1/3/

2005

7/3/

2005

1/3/

2006

7/3/

2006

1/3/

2007

7/3/

2007

1/3/

2008

7/3/

2008

1/3/

2009

7/3/

2009

1/3/

2010

7/3/

2010

1/3/

2011

7/3/

2011

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

S&P 500 Dividend Yield 10-Year Treasury Yield

Page 13: 2011 Cabot Investor Conference - 2011 Year in Review

EQUITY MARKETS HAVE LONG-TERM VALUE:Stocks Are “Cheap”

1976-Current

Page 14: 2011 Cabot Investor Conference - 2011 Year in Review

EQUITY MARKETS HAVE LONG-TERM VALUE:10-Year Rolling Returns Favor Stocks

Dec-

10

Dec-

15

Dec-

20

Dec-

25

Dec-

30

Dec-

35

Dec-

40

Dec-

45

Dec-

50

Dec-

55

Dec-

60

Dec-

65

Dec-

70

Dec-

75

Dec-

80

Dec-

85

Dec-

90

Dec-

95

Dec-

00

Dec-

05

Dec-

10

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Rolling 10-Year Annualized Total Return of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (1910 - Present)

Page 15: 2011 Cabot Investor Conference - 2011 Year in Review

ONE OF THE CLASSIC“STOCK MARKET RULES”

“The time to buy is when there is blood in the streets…

…even if the blood is your own.”

–Baron Rothschild, 18th Century