2003 Deming Institute PowerPoint Slides

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Quality, Productivity, & Quality, Productivity, & Competitive Position SeminarCompetitive Position Seminar

byNida Backaitis & Ron Moen

Las Vegas13-16 October 2003

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DAY 1 (Monday, October 13)

8:00 a.m. Registration9:00 Welcome and Overview of Seminar

Quality and the customerDr. Deming: “How are we doing?” (Ch.1)Facilitator Presentation: Small Group Discussion

10:40 -Break-11:00 Small Group Discussion

Dr. Deming: “The Heavy Losses” (Ch.2)12:00 -Lunch-1:00 Facilitator Presentation: Small Group Discussion

Dr. Deming: “Introduction to a System” (Ch.3)2:40 -Break-3:00 Facilitator Presentation: Small Group Discussion

Dr. Deming: “Destruction of a System” (Ch.3)4:00 Working Group Session5:00 Stop

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DAY 2 (Tuesday, October 14)

8:00 a.m. Reports of Working Groups Review of Day 1, questions

9:00 -Break-Dr. Deming: “The System of Profound Knowledge” (Ch.4)Facilitator Presentation: Small Group Discussion

10:40 -Break-11:00 Dr. Deming: “The Experiment with the Red Beads” (Ch.7)

Facilitator Presentation: Small Group Discussion12:00 -Lunch-1:00 Marshall Industries

Dr. Deming: “Motivation”(Ch.4)2:40 -Break-3:00 Facilitator Presentation: Small Group Discussion

Leadership and Management of People (Ch.5-6)4:00 Working Group Session5:00 Stop

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DAY 3 (Wednesday, October 15)

8:00 a.m. Reports of Working Groups9:00 -Break-9:15 API Model for Improvement: PDSA (Ch.6)

Prediction Game10:40 -Break-11:00 Dr. Deming: “Education” (Ch.6)12:00 -Lunch-1:00 Dr. Deming: “Shewhart and Control Charts” (Ch.8)

Facilitator Presentation: Small Group Discussion2:40 -Break-3:00 Dr. Deming: “Common Causes of Accidents” (Ch.8)

Facilitator Presentation: Small Group Discussion4:00 Stop

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DAY 4 (Thursday, October 16)

8:00 a.m. Review of Day 3, questions Dr. Deming: “The Funnel Experiment” (Ch.9)9:00 -Break-9:15 Facilitator Presentation: Small Group Discussion10:40 -Break-11:00 Dr. Deming: “Some Lessons in Variation” (Ch.10)

Facilitator Presentation: Small Group Discussion12:00 -Lunch-1:00 Remarks on Service Industries

Common misunderstandings of Deming’s philosophy1:45 Memories of Dr. W. Edwards Deming2:00 Reflections of Seminar2:30 Close

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1.0 Overview of Seminar

What topics would you really be disappointed if we did not cover them

by Thursday afternoon?

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1.1 Quality and the customer

• Where do customer expectations come from?

• Will happy and loyal customers ensure business success?

• Will zero defects keep you in business?

• What is the source of innovation?

• Who in an organization is responsible for the quality of a product or service that the organization produces?

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1.1 Quality and the customer

1. Where do customer expectations come from? 1. The company: “customers never asked for TV, etc”

2. Will happy and loyal customers ensure business success? 1. No – look to the future! Duties of a leader. Carburetor example2. Example: typewriters

3. Will zero defect keep you in business?1. No. Pg. 11 & 13

4. What is the source of innovation?1. Employees of company, supplier, study customer.

5. Who is an organization is responsible for the quality of a product or service that the organization produces?

1. Top management is responsible for the system, so they have to decide.

Thierry.Brusselle

Porter and threat of new entrant applies here as well. Look at substitue product and threat of new entrant to help design new product.

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1. A person’s performance on the job is largely under his or her control

2. Weaknesses of an individual that are identified by the appraisal system can be remedied by the individual

Strongly

disagree

Disagree Agree Strongly

Agree

Strongly

disagree


Agree

1.2 Some Assumptions

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3.Everyone has a need for recognition

4.Judging people is not harmful to them

Strongly

disagree


Agree

Strongly

disagree


Agree

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5.Competition will improve performance

6.All variation (in a measure) can be explained

Strongly

disagree


Agree

Strongly

disagree


Agree

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1.3 Dr. Deming: “The Heavy Losses”

x + [yx] = 8Where: x = contribution of the individualy = contribution of the systemyx = effect of the system on his performance8 = performance of the individual

Small Group Discussion:Give some examples of jobs where

1. x = 0 (or close to 0) 2. yx = 0 (or close to 0)

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1.3 Dr. Deming: “The Heavy Losses”

Discuss the pros and cons of the present practice of “Setting numerical goals”

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Appreciation of a system

• Strong relationships with vendors and distributors– Supplier and customer working together as a

system continuously

Thierry.Brusselle

problem with working with vendor is what happened in Detroit. Too much of a relationship with vendors helped them keep competitors out. Leads to anticompetitive behavior.

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1.4 Introduction to a System

A system is a network of interdependent components that work together to try to accomplish the aim of the system.

Properties of a system include:• A system must have an aim. The aim is a value judgment.• A system must be managed. It will not manage itself. If components are left alone,

they will tend to optimize themselves.• Optimization of the components does not optimize the whole (because of

interdependence).• The larger the system, the more difficult it is to manage. • A system cannot understand itself. Help must come from outside the system.• The performance of a system depends more on how its components interact than

how they act independently of each other

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Suppliers ofRaw Materials

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

Consumerresearch Consumers

Distribution

Test of processes,machines, methods,costs

Production, assembly, finishing, inspection

Receipt andtest of

Materials

Designand

Redesign

1.4 Deming’s view of Production as a System (1950)

Aim

Stage 0:Generation

of ideas

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Evolving View

• Deming (1950) - anything by this author

• Senge (1990) The Fifth Discipline and Fieldbook

• Margaret Wheatley (1992) Leadership and the New Science

• Russell Ackoff: Recreating the Corporation: A Design of Organizations for the 21st Century (1999)

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Whole consisting of two or more parts that satisfies the following five conditions:

(1). The whole has one or more defining properties or functions.

(2). Each part in the set can affect the behavior or properties of the whole.

(3). There is a subset of parts that is sufficient in one or more environments for carrying out the defining function of the whole; each of these parts is necessary but insufficient for carrying out this defining function.

(4). The way that each essential part of a system affects its behavior or properties depends on (the behavior or properties of) at least one other essential part of the system.

(5). The effect of any subset of essential parts on the system as a whole depends on the behavior of at least one other such subset.

Ackoff’s Definition of System

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=www.acasa.upenn.edu/graphic/ackoff.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.acasa.upenn.edu/advisory.htm&h=179&w=143&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dackoff%26svnum%3D10%26hl%3Den%26lr%3D%26ie%3DUTF-8%26oe%3DUTF-8

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Properties of a System (Ackoff)

System is a whole that cannot be divided into independent parts without loss of its essential properties or functions

When the performance of the parts of a system, considered separately, are improved, the performance of the whole may not be (and usually is not) improved.

U.S. Fishing Industry - New England Waters

Profitability Brings High Tech Foreign Competition

U.S. Fishing Industry Lobbies

•Low interest loans to upgrade technology

•Better enforcement of international borders

Results

• Help U.S. industry be more competitive by equipping them with better technology and by better border enforcement

• Increased yields and profitability

• Low interest loans attract additional entry into the U.S. fishing industry

• Waters become more crowded with better equipped ships

• Decreased yields and profitability

Intended Unintended

USG to the Rescue AgainSolutions:

1. $Incentives$ to EXIT the Industry2. Sink ships to create artificial reefs - fertile breeding ground for fish

Sales blitz

1.5 Sub-optimization of a System

Designand

Redesign

ConsumerresearchSuppliers of

Raw MaterialsReceipt and

test of Materials

Consumers

Distribution

Test of processes,machines, methods,

costs


A

B

C

D

E

F

G

Stage 0:Generation

of ideas

Point of View of Salesperson

Quota

Quality?

Commission Hawaii

Impact onOrganization?

Impact on theCustomer?

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MBO’s Create Local Optimization and Supplant the Aim of the Organization; Customer often

Gets Lost

• Credit dept: days outstanding• Division managers: division P&L• Marketing: Sales vs forecast• Sales: Gross profit dollars, quotas• Manufacturing: Quality• Operations: On time delivery

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Designand

Redesign



test of Materials

Consumers

Distribution


costs


A

B

C

D

E

F

G

Stage 0:Generation of ideas

Aim

Supplanted Aim Distorts Effort within the Organization

“Does anyone givea hoot about makinga profit?”

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“Does anyone give a hoot

about making a profit?”

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1.6 Deming’s view of Production as a System (1994)

Designand

Redesign



test of Materials

Consumers

Distribution


costs


A

B

C

D

E

F

G

Stage 0:Generation of ideas

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1.6 Advantages of viewing your organization as a system

The diagram directs the knowledge of the organization to the aim of the system, geared to the market

• The built-in cycle to design and redesign allows the organization to develop new products and services

• The diagram shows people what their jobs are and how they should interact with on another as part of a system

• The diagram makes it possible for managing the components as a system toward achievement of the stated aim (optimization)

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• What? Products and services, Processes and systems

• Why? To better match the present & future needs of the consumers

• Methods?– Plan for improvement

• Integrate with business planning

• Develop objectives, establish charters

– Manage improvement efforts• Provide guidance, remove obstacles

• Redirect & redeploy resources

Stage 0:

Generation of ideas

Designand

Redesign

Consumerresearch

The drivers of the system

• What? Communication and feedback between

the manufacturer and users and potential users of the product or service

• Methods?– Sampling and design of

experiments– Art of questioning and

interviewing

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Deming on Stage 0: Generation of ideas (1994)

“The 0-th stage is the foundation for the whole project. The 0-th stage is the place for ideas and brainstorming, to avoid so far as possible changes in direction and backtracking in later stages. Changes in direction cost more and more with each stage” (Chapter 6 on Management of People)

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Stage 0: Generation of Ideas Why?

Deming (1994): “…it is necessary to innovate, to predict the needs of the customer, give him more. He that innovates and is lucky will take the market.”

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Stage 0: Generation of ideas By What Method?

• Change Concepts• Using Technology• Critical Thinking• IDEO Brainstorming• Metaphorical Thinking• Observation of customers and users• Provocation• Prototyping• Idealized Design

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WORKING GROUP SESSIONStage 0: Generation of ideas

• Using the method of observation at a Las Vegas hotel, generate some new ideas for design or redesign of:– A) Hotel registration– B) Gambling at a casino – C) Service at a restaurant– D) All of the above

• Report out at 8 am tomorrow

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2.1 A System of Profound Knowledge

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A System of Profound Knowledge

• Is– A contribution to the emerging paradigm in the

sciences and in business– Deming, Senge, Argyris, Ackoff, Schein,

Wheatley, Capra …………….

• Is NOT– SPC, Quality Circles, self-managed teams, re-

engineering, TQM, ISO 9000

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W. Edwards Deming

• 1900-1993

• Humble beginnings

• 1960 - Second Order of the Sacred Treasure - Emperor Hirohito

• Deming Prize

• 1980 - “If Japan Can, Why Can’t We?”

• 1986 - Science and Technology Hall of Fame

• 1987 - National Medal of Technology - Reagan

• 1988 - National Academy of Sciences - Distinguished Career in Science

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What Was Deming Aiming for?

The aim of this book is a transformation of the style of American management . . . Not a job of reconstruction, nor is it revision. It requires a whole new structure, from foundation upward.

Mutation might be the word, except that mutation implies unordered spontaneity. Transformation must take place with directed effort.

Out of the Crisis (1982, 1986)

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The New Economics

• This book is for people who are living under the tyranny of the prevailing style of management . . . (which has) led us into decline.

• Most people imagine that the present style of management has always existed, and is a fixture. Actually, it is a modern invention - a prison created by the way in which people interact.

• The Route to transformation is what I call Profound Knowledge.

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The New Economics• The aim of this book is to start the reader

on the road to knowledge, and to create a yearning for more knowledge . . .

• 97% of the gains have not yet been realized

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Deming’s View of his Legacy

When asked how he would like to be remembered, Deming replied:

“I probably won’t even be remembered . . . Well, maybe . . . As someone who spent his life trying to keep America from committing suicide.”

Reaching Limits of Progress with Current Way of Thinking

The present system limits performance and has put us into decline

Transformation makes possible new levels of performance

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Reaching Limits of Current System

• Learn faster - prepare for a future that cannot be predicted

• Be more sensitive to environmental change and respond faster

• Encourage innovation

• Access employees’ intelligence and commitment

• Increasingly demanding customers

• From - Cheaper better faster

• To - Free, perfect, now

• To - Anything, anywhere, anytime

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Deming’s Organization

• People are able to learn and are willing to contribute that learning

• Organization is able to benefit from that learning

• Organization can respond and adapt quickly to changes in the environment

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Paradoxical Proverbs - Waitley

• You must learn from your past mistakes, but not learn on your past successes

• You must stick to your convictions, but be ready to abandon your assumptions

• You must continue to gain expertise, but avoid thinking like an expert

• You must act self-employed, but be a team player

Dennis Waitley, Empires of the Mind: Lessons to Lead and Succeed in a Knowledge-Based World

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Deming: Progress by Reconceptualizing World View

• The way we see the world determines how we manage

• If we expand our understanding of the world, we can change the way we manage, and change the course of our nation - jump into a new age

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Deming Worked on the Individual

• “What do you do?”

• Attempt to uncover world view

• Aim: begin reflection in the individual; first step in opening up thought process; get to level of assumptions

• “Need we proceed in ignorance?”

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“We have a lot to learn”

• What passes for knowledge cannot be looked at outside of the context of assumptions and value systems that generated it

• Knowledge develops within a system of beliefs, values, assumptions

• “We have a lot to do. Let’s do some thinking.”

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Organization

• Includes the set of assumptions under which the organization operates as well as the systems, work processes, and management practices built on those assumptions

Aspects of Organization

Culture, paradigms, assumptions, beliefs, values

Systems• people• work• management

Behaviors, methods,practices

Economicsocial

politicalenvironment

What is this concept called “wet?”

04/07/23 54

Newtonian/Cartesian/Machine View of World

• Developing since 17th century– Galileo, Newton, Descartes, Bacon, Darwin

• Many gifts– Man on the moon, food supply, atomic energy,

life span, medicine, mass production, management system

• Some unintended effects– Acid rain, ozone hole, nuclear bombs,

starvation in spite of improved agriculture, deforestation, drop out rate, crime

Facets of Machine-View of World

• Galileo (1564-1642)– Science should be restricted to what could be

measured or quantified or put into mathematical terms - should not rely on logic alone

• Descartes (1596-1650)– Separation between mind and matter– Analysis: anything can be understood by

reducing it to its constituent parts– Material Universe is a perfect machine, governed

by exact mathematical laws– Scientific knowledge should be used to render

ourselves masters and possessors of nature

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=hep.ucsb.edu/people/hnn/galileo.jpg&imgrefurl=http://hep.ucsb.edu/people/hnn/physicists.html&h=340&w=280&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dgalileo%26svnum%3D10%26hl%3Den%26lr%3D%26ie%3DUTF-8%26oe%3DUTF-8%26sa%3DN

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=www.phil.canterbury.ac.nz/graphics/descartes.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.phil.canterbury.ac.nz/cogs_prog/cogs.html&h=226&w=194&prev=/images%3Fq%3Ddescartes%26svnum%3D10%26hl%3Den%26lr%3D%26ie%3DUTF-8%26oe%3DUTF-8%26sa%3DN

Facets of Machine View of World

• Newton (1643-1727)– General laws of motion govern objects in the

universe; events can be understood without reference to the environment

– Picture of the world as a perfect machine (Descartes)

• running according to Newtonian laws of motion• Completely deterministic• Future can be predicted with absolute certainty• All that happens has definite cause and effect

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=members.surfeu.ch/b.sprenger/images/newton.jpg&imgrefurl=http://members.surfeu.ch/b.sprenger/aufklaerung.htm&h=255&w=250&prev=/images%3Fq%3Disaac%2Bnewton%26svnum%3D10%26hl%3Den%26lr%3D%26ie%3DUTF-8%26oe%3DUTF-8

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These ideas applied to Organizations

• Organizations are machines that serve the owner’s purpose

• Machines are more reliable than people as sources of energy to do work; people assigned tasks that cannot be mechanized

• People are poor substitutes for machines• Managers’ job is to ensure results; enforce

rigorous rules • Any results that deviate from the expected are to

be punished• MBO - manage complex organizations by

breaking them into parts

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Systems View

• World is evolving and dynamic• Whole cannot be understood in terms of

its parts• Systemic properties destroyed when

system is broken up into isolated elements

• Structure arises from interaction of parts• Interrelatedness of body and mind;

physical, biological, psychological, social, cultural.

A System of Profound Knowledge

Appreciation for a System• Interdependence, dynamism• Non-linear cause and effect

Knowledge of Variation• World is not deterministic• Variation is to be expected• Prediction - analytic studies• Measurement is not objective

Theory of Knowledge• Theories are not true or untrue; they are useful or not• Theory and experience are needed to learn

Knowledge of psychology• Interaction between people• Motivation• Change

System of profound knowledge Ch4the system of PK provides a new map of theory by which to understand

and optimize the organization that we work in and thus to make a

contribution to the whole country. – W.E. Deming, The New Economics

• Elements of the system of profound knowledge– Appreciation for a

system– Knowledge about

variation– Theory of knowledge– Psychology

Appreciation for a system

Theory of knowledge

Knowledge about variation

psychology

benchmarking

Thierry.Brusselle

we observe theory of knowlege by comparing theory with what we observe. We only learn throught the connection of the observation. Poss solution: Articulate theory before benchmarking

Thierry.Brusselle

consider operational definition

2.2 The Red Bead Experiment

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=www.redbead.com/images/dsc0160.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.redbead.com/red_bead_game_ordering_information.html&h=377&w=375&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dred%2Bbead%2Bexperiment%26svnum%3D10%26hl%3Den%26lr%3D%26ie%3DUTF-8%26oe%3DUTF-8%26sa%3DN

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2.3 Lessons from the red bead experiment

1. What information do you need to set the price of white beads?

2. How could the “White Bead Factory” have stayed in business? How do you know?

3. What is the difference between mechanical and random sampling?

4. What is meant by "the results will not change if we follow the same procedure?"

5. What was the impact of the manager? 6. What were the manager’s theories about

performance improvement?

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2.5 Leadership and Management of People

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Job of a Leader

1

2

Leaders work to improve the systems that they manage,not just analyze and dissect the results of the past

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Ranking vs. Improvement

1 2

1

Ranking

Focus on individual results within the

system

Improvement

Focus on cause system to improve

performance

Does ranking help improve performance?

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Deming on ranking . . .

In place of judgment of people, ranking them, putting them into slots (outstanding, excellent, on down to unsatisfactory), the aim should be to help people optimize the system so that everybody will gain

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What may happen when people are asked to reach a goal that is outside

the current system?

• People tend to do what makes sense to them:– Improve the process so that the goal is

achievable– Distort the process to achieve the goal– Fudge the numbers

goal

UCL

LCL

People material methods

equipment environment

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Another look at Ranking and RatingDo they help achieve the aim?

• Shift focus away from aim and from serving the customer– Is the job to get a good rating?– What about the customer?

• Demotivating• In a world of limited time, is this the best way to

spend it?

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Job of a Leader

A

B

•Identify and remove obstacles to the organization working as a system, serving the customer, and making a profit

•Continuously enhance the conditions that would permit people to learn and be willing and able to contribute their knowledge and energy to the organization

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Deming on People

• “Precious gems”

• Dignity, self-esteem: bedrock of creativity and joy in work

• People have intrinsic motivation

• People like to learn

• Right to “Joy in learning, joy in work”

• Sources of creativity

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“We have been destroying our people, from toddlers on though

university, and on the job”

Forces of Destruction Diagram, p122

Forces of destructions (p.122)

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These forces cause humiliation, fear, self-defense, competition for gold star., high grade, high rating on the job. They lead anyone to play to win, not for fun.

They crush out joy in learning, joy on the job, innovation. Extrinsic motivation (complete resignation

to external pressure) gradually replaces intrinsic motivation, self-esteem, dignity. One is born

with intrinsic motivation, self esteem, dignity, cooperation, curiosity, joy in learning. These attributes are high at the beginning of life, but are gradually crushed by the forces of destruction.

04/07/23 74

Human Relationships• Must be informed; understand aim and how

they fit in• Cooperation, participation, trust; organization

needs everyone’s mind and heart• Leadership through knowledge and influence

throughout organization; formal power may be needed occasionally but should be used sparingly

• Education and development of people crucial to organization’s ability to learn and adapt

04/07/23 75

What kind of work is suited to human beings?

• Humans must have a chance to take pride in their work– Must know the context of the work they

do and agree the contribution they make is worthwhile

– Must have a chance to be creative, have some discretion, choice (Edelman)

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WORKING GROUP SESSION

A. Review the 14 points of Dr. Deming in Chapter 2 of“Out of the Crisis.”

1. What are your 14 points are for today’s world? Why?2. Which of your 14 points will still be around in 2020? Why? (What will work look like in 2020?)

B. Review the deadly diseases of Dr. Deming inChapter 3 of “Out of the Crisis.”

1. What are your deadly diseases for today’s world? Why?2. Which of your deadly diseases will still be around in 2020? Why?

04/07/23 77

Working Group Session 2 (October 16, 2002)

Which of your deadly diseases will still be around in 2020? Why?1. Lack of constancy of purpose

2. Emphasis on short-term profits

3. Annual performance review

4. Mobility of management

5. Running a company on visible figures alone

• Failure to honor people

• Erosion of Ethics

• Lack of spirituality

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3.1 PDSA and Responsibility

What are we trying toaccomplish?

How will we know that achange is an improvement?

What change can we make thatwill result in improvement?

Model for Improvement

Act Plan

Study Do

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Fundamental Questions for Improvement

• What are we trying to accomplish?

• How will we know that a change is an improvement?

• What changes can we make that will result in an improvement?

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The PDSA Cycle for Learning and Improvement

Act

• What changes are to be made?

• Next cycle?

Plan• Objective• Questions and predictions (why)• Plan to carry out the cycle (who, what, where, when)• Plan for data collection

Study• Complete the analysis of the data

•Compare data to predictions

•Summarize what was learned

Do• Carry out the plan• Document problems and unexpected observations• Begin analysis of the data

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Use the PDSA Cycle for :

• Developing a change

• Testing a change

• Implementing a change

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Sequential Building of knowledge Include a Wide Range of Conditions in the Sequence of

TestsBreakthroughResults

Theories, hunches,& best practices Learning and im

provement

A P

S D

Evidence & Data

A P

S D

A P

S D

A PS D

Develop a change

Test a change

Test new conditions

Implement a change

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What are we trying to accomplish?Create a “revolutionary product” by using a new

technology

How will we know that a change is an improvement?Application of this new technology is given by

solving a number sequence

What changes can we make that will result in an improvement?

Don’t know the number sequence!

3.1 Exercise

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Prediction Game:Application of the PDSA Cycle

• Teams start with $50,000• Purpose of the game is to predict the

number sequence• Teams have three options for their plan:

1. Develop a change (gather more information)

2. Test a change

3. Implement a change

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Prediction Game

You are bankrupt if your losses exceed $50,000!

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Prediction GameOptions: Cost Gain1. Develop a change $1,000

(gather more information)

2. Test a change $2,000(predict the next number) If prediction is correct $6,000If prediction is off by 1 ($3,000)If prediction is off by > 1 ($6,000)

3. Implement a change $5,000(predict all numbers)If prediction is correct $40,000If prediction is wrong ($40,000)

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1, 2Options: Cost Gain1. Develop a change $1,000




04/07/23 89

1, 2, 3Options: Cost Gain1. Develop a change $1,000




04/07/23 90

1, 2, 3, 6Options: Cost Gain1. Develop a change $1,000




04/07/23 91

1, 2, 3, 6, 7Options: Cost Gain1. Develop a change $1,000




04/07/23 92

1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8Options: Cost Gain1. Develop a change $1,000




04/07/23 93

1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 21Options: Cost Gain1. Develop a change $1,000




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1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 21, 22, 23, 66, 67, 68, …Options: Cost Gain1. Develop a change $1,000




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Prediction Game:Application of the PDSA Cycle

• Planning requires prediction• Prediction requires a theory• A single observation may require us to

modify our theory• Multiple PDSA cycles can accelerate

the learning process• Choice of plan depends on our “degree

of belief” about the change

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Act


• Next cycle?

Plan• Objective•Improve the process

• Questions and predictions (why)•Cycle time improvement from 20 min avg queue waits for 150 people through 15 queues.

• Plan to carry out the cycle (who, what, where, when, how?)

•Manual simulation (use mockups)• Plan for data collection

•Use pre-registration via other means•Identify sample number (7) (due to the nature of the existing system)

Study

• Complete the analysis of the data•Compare data to predictions•Summarize what was learned

Do

• Carry out the plan•Populate representative databases

• Document problems and unexpected observations

•Insert card correctly, dbase could be wrong, machine failure possibility

• Begin analysis of the data •Take stop watches and measure time of 7th person. Divide by 7, multiply by 150.

04/07/23

The PDSA Cycle for Learning and Improvement

Act


• Next cycle?

Plan• Objective• Questions and predictions (why)• Plan to carry out the cycle (who, what, where, when)• Plan for data collection

Study• Complete the analysis of the data

•Compare data to predictions

•Summarize what was learned

Do• Carry out the plan• Document problems and unexpected observations• Begin analysis of the data

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Education

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Peter Senge Video (learning organizations) http://www.fieldbook.com/FDF/FDF.html

http://www.josseybass.com/WileyCDA/Section/id-101959.html• The 5th Discipline (give me a lever long enough and I

can move the world)– Leg of stool:

• aspiration– Policy decision vs. the system– S Africa: a person exists in relationships– Zulu greeting: I see you– You can be sure that fish in a fishbowl don’t talk about water.– “our prevailing system of management…”– School and work are the same institution– Kids learn that:

• “school is about performing for approval!” • Also learned by mistake• Student/teacher relationship is similar to employee/boss relationship• Video games: bad guy is sometimes called the boss.

http://www.fieldbook.com/FDF/FDF.html

http://www.josseybass.com/WileyCDA/Section/id-101959.html

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Peter Senge Video (cont.)

– No standardized measures for cost control at Toyota, Ford spent most of its time measuring components to check on the system

– “Zero to landfill” program (only 3% to landfill). This has saved major cash to the company.

– The “machine” isn’t self controlled/maintained. School is totally patterned after an assembly line. Ex: why K-12? Where did the idea of stupidity come from? Are you stupid because you can’t keep up with the pace?

– “No one really understood that you really understood but when you understood, you understood!”

– Everything is speeded up– Nature doesn’t quantify, nature’s model of intelligence is awareness of

where things stand. – Measuring is SECONDARY to learning. – We’ve almost convinced the species that what’s most REAL is

MEASURABLE.– Love, inspiration, and persistence can’t be measured – we can create

measures for them but that’s meaningless.

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Peter Senge Video (cont.)

– “thought shape reality” physicist said. – People in malls aren’t smiling much but most people in huts do. Tribal organizing

has been around for a while. – “we have to go upstream!” Deming

• Focus on reinventing the process of education or there is no hope.• Learning Organization

– He still hadn’t seen one. Some companies and schools had gone down the wrong paths to be learning organization

– Deep rhythm that transforms institutions• Team and communities• Team is a group of people who get together to get s/t done• Communities aren’t abstract, they’re real (he talks about Visa International) as the

largest market cap company that isn’t actually a system. – Talks about a program that no instructor – kids actually worked well together and

they actually tested well– Kids actually arguing about work! – Teacher wanting control is bad. ASK ABOUT LEADERSHIP– Parents, political apparatus, and the kids are all part of the community!

• What meetings to the kids attend? Etc. Aktay is producer.

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America 2000 Assignment (p. 45)

• P. 16 Whatever their approach, all new American schools will be expected to produce extraordinary…

• What questions would you now ask to the people setting these goals?– What is the Aim?– What is the benchmark that will rate:

• Learning• extraordinary

– What is the gap between current and benchmark– What resource are required to close/address the gap– How do you know when you’ve succeeded– Who will it be sustained– When do expect result?

• What suggestions might you make in terms of methods?– Apply PDSA! S: study existing system?– What will the pilot group consist of?– How widespread is the pilot group?– What is the methodology of the pilot group?

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4.0 Exercise

Using the lens of profound knowledge,

how do we see:

• The red bead experiment

• The practice of benchmarking

• The practice of rating and ranking employees

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The first step is the transformation of the individual . . .

Once an individual understands new knowledge, he will apply it in every interaction with people. He will perceive new meaning to his life, to events, to numbers, to interactions between people.

W. Edwards Deming

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Appendix: Changing Our Minds

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Nida’s (post profound knowledge)

• FAA experience as a consultant

• Swart’s book on facilitation by creating different types of interaction between human beings (ref. D’s prism idea)

• Looked at patterns of humans in terms of interaction

CurrentState

PossibleState

Changing from . . . To . . .

Two primary modes of thought have been distinguished

ProcessThinking

Reflective

Thinking

Using what we already know to be true, to make sense of

and understand the world, so that we may take action that is

appropriate and consistent with what we already know

Suspending what we already know to be true and using

openness and curiosity regarding the world to explore,

learn and gain new insights, ideas and experiences

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Faced with the choice between changing one’s mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everybody gets busy on the proof.

- John Kenneth Galbraith

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Process Thinking Reflective Thinking

Rigid reality

Deliberate processing of data

Bound by memory

Automatic, conditioned and habitual

Controlled and self-confirming

Past and future focus

Functional for known variables

Dynamic reality

Open exploration of data

Accesses memory + wisdom

Reflective, unconditioned and intuitive

Uncontrolled and new

Present focus - “in the moment”

Functional for unknown variable

Process and Reflective Thinking can be compared

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The Thinking Path is based on the premise that Thought is at the base of human experience and

that Thought leads to Feelings, Behaviors and

ultimately Results

Thinking

Internal

External

Feelings

Behaviors

Results

GUNN PARTNERS An Exult Company

© 2002

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Results

Feelings

Behaviors

Thinking• Activation of one’s neurons and cells• Transformation of raw data into information• Generation of beliefs, assumptions, etc.• Includes knowledge and skills

• Actions that are taken in response to Thinking and Feelings

• Outward verbal, physical and emotional expressions and manifestations of the combination of our Thinking and Feelings

• Physiological reactions to Thinking• Physical manifestations that are

experienced within one’s body

• The observable and often measurable consequences of one’s Behaviors

• The ultimate outcome of one’s Thinking, Feelings and Behaviors

The domains of the Thinking Path can be defined in the following manner


© 2002

Rein forcers

• The people, places and things in the external environment that support and sustain the Thinking Path

• The internal states of the individual that support and sustain the Thinking Path

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The Current/Possible States Log

• If I do not speak, there is a strong chance that what I wanted to say will be said

• I will get a chance to share my thoughts• Everyone cares about what

others have to say

• Conversations are driven to their logical end one by one

• No interruptions + use of 3-second rule• Reflective listening is employed• Statements begin with liaisons

• Team meetings accomplish their objectives as conversations are effective and well managed

• Team members enjoy working with each other

Thinking

Feelings

Behaviors

Results

Current State Possible State

• Team meetings often do not accomplish their objectives due to lack of structure in the conversations that drag on

• Team members are frustrated with and cynical about working with each other

• Piling on issues during a conversation• Frequent interruptions• Listening not actively practiced• Most statements begin with ‘no’ or ‘but’

• Anxious to speak and get a word in• Uncomfortable letting the same

individuals always speak• Angry that no one will listen

• If I do not jump in, no one will listen to me• Every one thinks their point of view is best

an must defend their opinion to succeed• No one cares about what others think

• Curious about the conversation• Honoring what others are saying• Assured that voice will be heard


© 2002

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Thinking

Feelings

Behaviors

Results

Current State Possible State


© 2002

Current/Possible States Table

Sharing and Structuring

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Observable DataAnd Experience

I select data

I add meaning

I make assumptions

I Draw Conclusions

I adopt beliefs

I Do or Do Not Take ActionThe Ladder of

Inference

ReflexiveLoop

Available data

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C#1

C#2

C#3

E#1, short

E#2, short

E#3, short

E#1, long

E#2, long

E#3, long

C#4

C#6

C#5

We can begin with the same data available, but our theoriesand assumptions guide us to select a subset that fits them.

Available data

Beliefs

Selectdata

Interpretdata

Drawconclusions

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Available data

Beliefs

Selectdata

Interpretdata

Drawconclusions

When testing inferences, stay LOW on the ladder . . .

Usual levelof debate

Suggested levelof conversation

04/07/23 118

“What are wedisagreeing on?”

“What is yourthinking on this

matter?”

“Is my interpretation‘x’ of what you said,what you meant?”

“What are thefacts behind what

we are talkingabout?”

“Can you runme through your

reasoning?”

“What are theassumptions behind

what you’re saying?”“How did youinterpret the

event?”

“What areyour beliefs

on the matter?”

In the Reflective Thinking, we can ask others certain questions

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“What beliefs amI holding on to?”

“What could Istand to learn?”

“What else couldbe possible here?”

“Do I know whatthe facts are?”

“What am Ifeeling

right now?”

“What thoughtsare driving

these feelings?”“What causedthese thoughts

to occur?”

“What assumptions

am I making?”

In the Reflective Thinking, we can ask OURSELVES Questions

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Argyris: Unilateral Control Model

• Most people act with these core values and assumptions (theories in use)– Achieve my goal through unilateral control– Win, don’t lose– Minimize expressing negative feelings– Act rationally– I understand the situation; those who see it differently do

not– I am right; those who disagree are wrong– I have pre motives; those who disagree have

questionable motives– My feelings are justified

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• Which lead to the following strategies:

– Advocate my position• “I am my position” -- Senge

– Keep my reasoning private• We tend not to ask others about their reasoning

– Don’t ask others about their reasoning– Ease in – Save face

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• Which lead to the following consequences:

– Misunderstanding, conflict, and defensiveness– Mistrust– Self-fulfilling, self-sealing processes– Limited learning– Reduced effectiveness– Reduced quality of worklife

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Argyris and Schwarz: Proposed New Values and Assumptions

• I have some information; others have other information

• Each of us may see things that others do not• Differences are opportunities for learning• People are trying to act with integrity, given

their situation• Valid information• Fee and informed choice• Internal commitment• Compassion

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Proposed New Strategies1. Test assumptions and inferences

2. Share all relevant information

3. Use specific examples and agree on what important words mean

4. Explain your reasoning and intent

5. Focus on interests, not positions

6. Combine advocacy and inquiry

7. Jointly design next steps and ways to test disagreements

8. Discuss undiscussable issues

9. Use a decision-making rule that generates the level of commitment neededExcerpted from Roger Schwarz, The Skilled Facilitator

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Argyris and Schwarz: Potential New Outcomes

• Increased understanding, reduced conflict and defensiveness

• Increased trust• Fewer self-fulfilling, self-sealing

processes• Increased learning• Increased effectiveness• Increased quality of worklife• Possibility for change

04/07/23 126

Shewhart and control charts (Ch.8)

• Common causes and special causes• Two mistakes

– Minimize net economic loss of the two kinds of mistake was Shewhart’s objective

• Stable and unstable systems• Capability Vs. stability

– Meeting specifications (bead experiment: no more than 5 was spec)

– The bead experiment was a stable system but not a capable system

• Shewhart control chart– Plotted over time, a measure– Run chart with control limits

• Shewhart set his control limits based on economic loss• GM used to just draw lines around variations

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Why distinguish between common and special cause variation

• Different management approaches

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Common cause variation

• Variation is due to process/system design

• Produced by interaction of inherent variables in process

• Causes affect everyone working in process and all outcomes of process

• Process having only common causes affecting the outcome is called stable– Performance is predictable

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S control charts action on a signal of a special causes:

• Immediately try to understand when special cause occurred

• Study what was different when special cause occurred

• Identify ways to prevent or use it

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The funnel (ch. 9)See page 190

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Service comp

• Non-visibility

• No inventory

• More flexibility in delivering quality

• Challenge is to do work right 100%

• Manuf brags about 2% yet airline never brags about crashing 2% of time. Service can’t advertise its defects

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Extrinsic Motivation

• Report on 1st day of class to parent– Report cards

• “doesn’t get along well with others”• “unsatisfactory”

• Kids ask a lot of questions when they’re young. We lose that curiosity as we get older

• This stays with us when we work as we focus on performance reviews

• Boeing: closest thing to a learning organization, Bellos, in Canoga Park.

• Lots a companies are adopting this model but they’re keeping it quiet so as to avoid subversion.

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Dr. Orsini

• Improvement– Product/service

• customer

– Process• Employees

• Innovation– Product/service– Process

04/07/23 134

RFP

• Paper example– White #37– 20% moisture– Etc.

• 3 bids– A, B, C co submit bids– Lowest price gets it

• This does NOT guarantee quality or benefit in the long term

• Company needs to work with supplier to understand the manufacturing and development for the long term.

• Incentive is to service company well in the long term.

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Manufacturer, assembly production and steel supplier

• Car company wants manufacturer and dist to share ideas on production cost savings– Manufacturer asks why car co wants 30+ diff types of

steel for the door• Maker explains safety standards

– Manufacturer explains that producing diff types of steel costs more because they cant use economies of scales. Solution was to buy thicker steel to meet standards and help cut cost my large margins.

– Production team asks why edge of door is at existing angle because lesser angle helps production team fit door in better so as to ease with the install of the door and help reduce the amount of leaks in the car

• Maker explains

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Deming’s 14 points

• Metaphor– Long strand of spaghetti on a plate– Twirl fork and find out that you have the whole

thing– That’s the 14 points – or nothing.

Business

2003 Deming Institute PowerPoint Slides