OMER ALSAYED OMER| PMP, MBA, B. SC. (CIVIL ENGINEERING)OMERALSAYED@YAHOO.COM – KHARTOUM – SUDAN +249123494587

Course Description

Type brief course summary Location

Lectures: Mon-Wed-Fri at 00:00 am

Labs: Tues-Thurs at 00:00 am

Prerequisites:

Credits:

risk management

planning, identification, analysis, responses,

monitoring and control

on a project.

by conducting

Defining Planning Executing Delivering

Chances of risks occurring

• defining HOW to conduct risk management activities for a project.

11.1 Plan Risk Management

• DETERMINING which risks may affect the project and documenting their characteristics.

11.2 Identify Risks

• PRIORITIZING risks for further analysis or action (assessing and combining probability and impact).

11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis

• NUMERICALLYanalyzing the effect of identified risks on overall project objectives.

11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis

• developing OPTIONSand actions to enhance opportunities and to reduce threats to project objectives.

11.5 Plan Risk Responses

• IMPLEMENTINGresponse plans, tracking identified risks, monitoring residual risks, identifying new risks, and evaluating risk process effectiveness

11.6 Control Risks

Risk appetite,

•the degree of uncertainty an entity is willing to take on in anticipation of a reward.

Risk tolerance

•the degree, amount, or volume of risk that an organization will withstand.

Risk threshold

•the level of uncertainty or impact at which a stakeholder may have a specific interest.

Below >> acceptable … Above >> not tolerate.

Inpu

ts Project management planProject charterStakeholder registerEnterprise environmental factorsOrganizational process assets

Tool

s &

Tech

niqu

es Analytical techniquesExpert judgmentMeetings O

utpu

ts Risk management plan

Project Management Plan

• all approved subsidiary management plans and baselines• provides baseline or current state of risk-affected areas

including scope, schedule, and cost.

Project Charter • high-level risks, high-level project descriptions, and high-level requirements.

Stakeholder Register

• contains all details related to the project’s stakeholders, provides an overview of their roles.

Enterprise Environmental

Factors• risk attitudes, thresholds, and tolerances

Organizational Process Assets

• Risk categories, concepts and terms, Risk statement formats, Standard templates, Roles and responsibilities, Authority levels for decision making, and Lessons learned.

understand and define the overall risk management context of the project.

stakeholder risk attitudes

the strategic risk

exposure.

Risk management

context

stakeholder risk profile analysis performed to grade and qualify: the project stakeholder risk appetite and tolerance.

Depending on these assessments, the project team can allocate appropriate resources and focus on the risk management activities

strategic risk scoring sheets

provide a high-level assessment of the risk exposurebased on the overall project context.

define High-level plans -RISK ACTIVITIES.

develop Risk management COST and

SCHEDULE activities

review Risk CONTINGENCY reserve

approaches.

Assign Risk management RESPONSIBILITIES.

General organizational templates for risk

CATEGORIES,

the PROBABILITY and IMPACT matrix will be

tailored to the specific project.

project manager

team members

stakeholders

others, as needed

Methodology. Defines the approaches, tools, and data

Roles and responsibilities. lead, support, and risk management team members for each type of

activity in the risk management plan, and clarifies their responsibilities.

Budgeting. Estimates funds needed for inclusion in the cost baseline and establishes

protocols for application of contingency and management reserves.

Timing. when and how often the risk management processes will be performed schedule contingency reserves protocols establishes risk management activities.

grouping potential causes of risk.

Several approaches can be used, (structure based on project objectives by category. A risk breakdown structure (RBS)

RBS BCSP

Technical

Unproven Technology

Quality of Technology

Performance Risks

Complex Technology

Project Management

Schedule Planning

Project Disciplines

Resource Planning

Organizational

Project Schedules

Unrealistic Objectives

Funding

External

Weather

Labor Issues

Catastrophic Risk

Cost Estimates

BUDGETING

For quality and credibility requires that different levels of risk probability and impact be defined that are specific to the project context.

Defined Conditions for Impact Scales of a Risk on Major Project Objectives (Examples are shown for negative impacts only)

Relative or numerical scales are shownProjectObjective

Very low /0.05 Low /0.10 Moderate /0.20 High /0.40 Very high /0.80

Cost Insignificant cost increase

< 10% cost increase

10% - 20% cost increase

20% - 40% cost increase

>40% cost increase

Time Insignificant time increase

< 5% time increase

5% - 10% time increase

10% - 20% time increase

>20% time increase

Scope Scope decrease

barely noticeable

Minor areas ofscope affected

Major areas ofscope affected

Scope reduction

unacceptable to

sponsor

Project end item

is effectivelyuseless

Quality Quality degradationbarely noticeable

Only very demandingapplicationsare affected

Quality reductionrequires sponsorapproval

Quality reductionunacceptable tosponsor

Project end itemis effectivelyuseless

Probability and impact matrix. a grid for mapping the probability of each risk occurrence and its impact on

project objectives if that risk occurs.

Revised stakeholders’ tolerances. Stakeholders’ tolerances, as they apply to the specific project, may be

revised in the Plan Risk Management process.

Reporting formats. how the outcomes of the risk management process will be documented,

analyzed, and communicated(content/format of the risk register - reports).

Tracking. how risk activities will be recorded for the benefit of the current project and

how risk management processes will be audited.

Sample of RMP

Ex.

Make a sample of RMP for your project

Inpu

ts Risk management planCost management planSchedule management planQuality management planHuman resource management planScope baselineActivity cost estimatesActivity duration estimatesStakeholder registerProject documentsProcurement documentsEnterprise environmental factorsOrganizational process assets

Tool

s &

Tech

niqu

es

Documentation reviewsInformation gathering techniquesChecklist analysisAssumptions analysisDiagramming techniquesSWOT analysisExpert judgment

Out

puts Risk register

• assignments of roles and responsibilities, provision for risk management activities in the budget and schedule, and categories of risk

11.2.1.1 Risk Management Plan

• provides processes and controls that can be used to help identify risks across the project.

11.2.1.2 Cost Management Plan

• provides insight to project time/schedule objectives and expectations which may be impacted by risks (known and unknown).

11.2.1.3 Schedule Management Plan

• provides a baseline of quality measures and metrics for use in identifying risks.

11.2.1.4 Quality Management Plan

11.2.1.5 Human Resource Management

Plan

•how project human resources should be defined, staffed, managed, and released. ,roles and responsibilities,

•project organization charts, and the staffing management plan.

•how project human resources should be defined, staffed, managed, and released. ,roles and responsibilities,

•project organization charts, and the staffing management plan.

11.2.1.6 Scope Baseline

•Uncertainty in project assumptions.•The WBS (potential risks at both the micro and macro levels).•Risks can be identified and tracked at summary, control account,

and/or work package levels.

•Uncertainty in project assumptions.•The WBS (potential risks at both the micro and macro levels).•Risks can be identified and tracked at summary, control account,

and/or work package levels.

11.2.1.7 Activity Cost Estimates

•provide a quantitative assessment of the likely cost to complete scheduled activities (D + r).

•result in projections indicating sufficient or insufficient to complete the activity

•provide a quantitative assessment of the likely cost to complete scheduled activities (D + r).

•result in projections indicating sufficient or insufficient to complete the activity

11.2.1.8 Activity Duration Estimates

•useful in identifying risks related to the time allowances for the activities or project as a whole, again with the width of the range of such estimates indicating the relative degree(s) of risk.

•useful in identifying risks related to the time allowances for the activities or project as a whole, again with the width of the range of such estimates indicating the relative degree(s) of risk.

11.2.1.9 Stakeholder Register

•Information about the stakeholders is useful for soliciting inputs to identify risks, as this will ensure that key stakeholders, especially the stakeholder, sponsor, and customer are interviewed or otherwise participate during the Identify Risks process.

•Information about the stakeholders is useful for soliciting inputs to identify risks, as this will ensure that key stakeholders, especially the stakeholder, sponsor, and customer are interviewed or otherwise participate during the Identify Risks process.

11.2.1.10 Project Documents

•Project charter, Project schedule, Schedule network diagrams, Issue log, Quality checklist, and Other information proven to be valuable in identifying risks.

•Project charter, Project schedule, Schedule network diagrams, Issue log, Quality checklist, and Other information proven to be valuable in identifying risks.

11.2.1.11 Procurement Documents

•The complexity and the level of detail of the procurement documents should be consistent with the value of, and risks associated with, planned procurement.

•The complexity and the level of detail of the procurement documents should be consistent with the value of, and risks associated with, planned procurement.

11.2.1.12 Enterprise Environmental Factors

•Published information, including commercial databases, Academic studies, Published checklists, Benchmarking, Industry studies, and Risk attitudes.

•Published information, including commercial databases, Academic studies, Published checklists, Benchmarking, Industry studies, and Risk attitudes.

11.2.1.13 Organizational Process

Assets

•Project files, including actual data, Organizational and project process controls, Risk statement formats or templates, and Lessons learned.

•Project files, including actual data, Organizational and project process controls, Risk statement formats or templates, and Lessons learned.

11.2.2.1 Documentation Reviews A structured review of the project documentation may be performed,

including plans, assumptions, previous

project files, agreements, and other information. The quality of the plans, as well as consistency between those

plans and the project requirements and assumptions, may be indicators of risk in the project.

11.2.2.2 Information Gathering Techniques Brainstorming. Delphi technique.

P-352

Integration•Inadequate planning;•poor resource allocation; •poor integration management;•lack of post-project review

Scope•Poor definition of scope or work packages;

•incomplete definition of quality requirements

•inadequate scope control

Time•Errors in estimating time or resource availability;

•poor allocation and management of float;

•early release of competitive products

Cost•Estimating errors;•inadequate productivity, cost, •change, or contingency control;•poor maintenance, security, purchasing, etc.

Quality•Poor attitude toward quality; •substandard design/materials/workmanship;

•inadequate quality assurance program

Human Resources•Poor conflict management;•poor project organization•Poor definition of responsibilities; •absence of leadership

Communications•Carelessness in planning•Carelessness in communicating;•lack of consultation with key stakeholders

Risk register

Our project risk register

Risk ID Risk Statement Probability

Impact

Scope Quality Schedule Cost Score Response

100 Materials Price change 0.7 - 0.7 - 0.50

110 Labor wages change 0.5 - 0.5 - 0.25

120

Soil bearing capacity assumption not match

0.2 - 0.5 - 0.30

130 Manpower not easily available 0.5 + 0.5 + 0.25

140 Engineers available 0.8 + 0.5 + 0.40

150 On-time funding 0.7 + 0.5 + 0.35

Probability & Impact assessmentProbability & Impact matrix

Risk data sheet

c

مفاجاة الموسم وآل !! المواسم

Course Objectives

Course Objectives Results/OutcomeExpected Skills Developed

Objective 1 Result 1 Skills Developed

Objective 2 Result 2 Skills Developed

Objective 3 Result 3 Skills Developed

Objective 4 Result 4 Skills Developed

Required Materials

•Books•Articles•Web•Other

Reading

•Supplies•Equipment•Other project materials

Project

•Software and hardwareTechnology/Tools

Instructional Methods

Briefly describe instructional methods Lectures

Demonstrations

Class discussion/Virtual discussions

Individual/group projects

Labs

Schedule

Week Topic Assignment/Project Objective

Week 1 Topic 1 Brief description Objective

Week 2 Topic 2 Brief description Objective

Week 3 Topic 3 Brief description Objective

Week 4 Topic 4 Brief description Objective

Week 5 Topic 5 Brief description Objective

Assessment Criteria

Weekly assignments

Projects

Quizzes

Final Exam

10

30

20

40

Percent of Grade

Weekly assignments ProjectsQuizzes Final exam

Resources

Web & Software Tools

Class web site

Collaboration tools

Mobile/Other apps

Social Media

Twitter

Facebook

Other

Labs, Study Groups

Labs

Study groups

Instructor Contact Information

Email Office phone

Office hours

Instructor web page

Opportunity Threat

Questions?