10 key trends to watch for 2014 from GlobalTrends.com

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10 Key Trends to Watch for 2014

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10 Trends to Watch for 2014

1. From social everything to being smart socially

2. Information security: The genie is out of the bottle

3. Who needs shops anyway?

4. Redistributing the industrial revolution

5. Hubonomics: The new face of globalization

6. Sci-Fi is here: Making the impossible, possible

7. Growing pains: Transforming markets and generations

8. Panic versus disbelief: The resource gap grows, the global risks rise – but who is listening?

9. Fighting unemployability and unemployerability

10. Surviving in a bipolar world: From expecting consistency to embracing ambiguity


1. From social everything to being smart socially


Social technologies are everywhere, but these vast repositories of digital “stuff” bury the exceptional among the unimportant. It’s time to get socially smart.


Users are moving to niche networks to bring back the community feel and intelligence to social interactions.

Think: Quora, Quibb, Path, Best of All Worlds, Doximity and GovLoop. Ask: What’s next after Facebook?

http://www.quora.com/

http://quibb.com/

https://path.com/

http://www.bestofallworlds.com/

https://www.doximity.com/home_alt_2

http://www.govloop.com/


Businesses need to get smarter about extracting and delivering value from big data because…

…companies with the most advanced big data analytics capabilities are: • Twice as likely to be in the top quartile

of financial performance within their industries.

• Five times as likely to make decisions much faster than market peers.

Source: Bain & Company

http://www.bain.com/publications/articles/big_data_the_organizational_challenge.aspx


For social networks, mobile is the great

leveller.

Which apps will get users attention?

1.22 1.47 1.73 1.97 2.18 2.37 2.55

23.7% 20.4% 18.0% 13.4% 10.8% 8.9% 7.5%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Social network users (billions) % changeSource:eMarketer

http://www.emarketer.com/Article/Social-Networking-Reaches-Nearly-One-Four-Around-World/1009976


2. Information security: The genie is out of the bottle

Thought your information was

safe? Think again!


Privacy is only an illusion: Cyber-surveillance and data mining by public and private organizations is increasing – and don’t forget criminal networks and whistleblowers.

You are tracked

everywhere and by

everyone


Newly built smart cities are protected and managed by mass surveillance BUT residents could be put at risk, if

stockpiles of personal data are hacked.


Intelligence no longer belongs only to humans – deep learning might soon be here

are “playing” with technologies that will

understand the deeper meaning of users’ actions

and emotions on social networks.


3. Who needs shops anyway?

Retailers are facing a digitally driven perfect storm.

Photo: Source=[http://www.flickr.com/photos/womeos/6026330194/ Eaton Centre] * Uploaded bySkeezix1000 |Date=2011-08-09 20:44, licensed under he Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/User:Skeezix1000

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/en:Creative_Commons

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/deed.en


Connectivity, rising consumer influence, time scarcity, mobile payments, and the internet of things, are changing where, when and how we shop...

By 2017 global mobile commerce transactions will exceed US$3.2 trillion, up from US$1.5 trillion in 2013. (Source: Juniper Research, Mediabistro)

http://www.juniperresearch.com/viewpressrelease.php?pr=382

http://www.mediabistro.com/alltwitter/social-commerce_b46141


…if smart machines have not already

done the job.

Source: http://www.bornrich.com/self-cleaning-high-tech-fridge-of-the-future-in-the-works.html

http://www.bornrich.com/self-cleaning-high-tech-fridge-of-the-future-in-the-works.html


COMPANY AS A SERVICE

MOTIVATE A MARKETPLACE

Crowd created new goods

Corporation

Subscribe

Rental

Co-Own

Share goods Swap

Gift good

The Collaborative

Economy Value Chain

Redraw from Altimeter, via Web strategist.

Brand

In the emerging sharing

economy, experience

and sustainable

consumption are more important

than ownership.

People build

PROVIDE A PLATFORM

http://www.web-strategist.com/blog/2013/06/19/the-many-forms-of-transaction-in-the-collaborative-economy/


The future of shops…

Source: Burberry, Regent Street flagship store, London, UK

Experiential spaces offering personalized service, e.g. Burberry

Integrated online and offline value propositions

Pop-up stores for immediacy and surprise

This image is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license. Author: Gilda from London, UK

92% of shoppers have more confidence in

information sought online versus anything from a

salesclerk or other source. (Source: Mediabistro)

http://www.flickr.com/photos/79823494@N00

http://www.mediabistro.com/alltwitter/files/2013/07/social-currency.jpg


4. Redistributing the industrial revolution

Complex, global value chains are being redistributed by new

technologies, labor market shifts and connectivity.


Small-scale manufacturing, including 3D is

moving production closer to markets

and enabling mass customization – while the maker movement goes

mainstream.

Photo: Author Kyle Pearce (www.diygenius.com) via Flickr; licensed for reuse under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 license.

http://www.diygenius.com/


Rising labor costs in developing markets, high unemployment in developed markets, global access to online talent and knowledge, plus advances in robotics mean reshoring of

production to developed markets will increase.

7.6%

5.5%

6.2% 6.0%

2.9%

3.8%

7.2%

5.8% 5.9% 5.8%

2.9%

3.7%

5.8% 5.9% 5.4%

6.0%

3.0%

3.7%

Africa Asia Latin America Middle East North America Europe

2012 Average Increases 2013 Average Increases 2014 Average Increases

Global Average Salary Increases 2012-2014

Source: Aon

http://ir.aon.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=105697&p=irol-newsArticle&id=1862496


5. Hubonomics: The new face of globalization

As production and consumption become more distributed, hubs will characterize

the next wave of “globalization.”


Hubs will specialize to support the needs of growing regional trade, emerging city states, online communities of choice, and the next

generation of flexible workers and entrepreneurs.


Underpinning these hubs will be global knowledge networks and new business and governance models based on hubonomics™,

that leverage global assets and hub strengths to deliver local value.

The Asia-Pacific Water Forum’s KnowledgeHubs are centers of excellence committed to improving water security in the Asia-Pacific region by promoting knowledge sharing and championing feasible solutions.

The World Bank’s South-South Knowledge Exchange connects countries to share knowledge to promote development, for example exporting India’s dairy “revolution” to help feed children in East Africa.

http://wbi.worldbank.org/sske/

http://wbi.worldbank.org/sske/


6. Sci-Fi is here: Making the impossible possible

Scientific breakthroughs could change our lives,

work, bodies and intelligence.


THINK

• Mind control and artificial intelligence • Shape-shifting materials • Self-organizing nanobots • Cyborgs and enhanced humans • Space exploration • High-speed, intelligent transportation

Advanced technology is redefining our world


Thought control has already been tried on many levels…

• A HMS research team controlled a rat's tail.

• At UW one researcher sent a brain signal via the internet to control the hand motions of a fellow researcher.

• RAC’s “attention-powered car” is controlled by brainwaves.

• Ford, BMW, Fiat, Daimler, Volvo and Volkswagen are testing systems that take control of the e.g. steering wheel when risks are detected.

(Source: PSFK, BBC).

http://hms.harvard.edu/

http://www.washington.edu/


Soon shape-shifting materials and self-organizing nanobots will repair what’s broken. Technology is moving off the desktop and on to our body

while Iron Man-style suits will give troops “superhuman strength.”

Think: 4D printing, swarmbots or M-blocks, Hyperloop, wearable technology Ask: How can my company tap into this extraordinary world of new technologies?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-21614176

http://www.kurzweilai.net/mit-inventor-unleashes-hundreds-of-self-assembling-cube-swarmbots



http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-57610495-1/is-a-hyperloop-prototype-really-possible-by-2015/


7. Growing pains: Transforming markets and generations


The golden years of extreme growth are over but the emerging markets growth engine is far from

dead…

HOWEVER,

the growing pains of these markets demand significant shifts in governance, financial systems, education and economic policies to get them back on an upward

track.


The “I WANT MORE” generation with lots of disposable income to spend will most likely be the generation of

transformers that has the power to restore growth in emerging

markets.

26 34

12

30 38

64

2010 2025***

Emerging marketsDeveloped markets

World consumption, US$ trillion

***Estimate based on 2010 private-consumption share of GDP per country and GDP estimates for 2010 and 2025; assumes private consumption’s share o GDP will remain constant. Source: McKinsey

http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/strategy/winning_the_30_trillion_decathlon_going_for_gold_in_emerging_markets


8. Panic versus denial: The resource gap grows, the global risks rise –

but who is listening?


The complex nexus of food, water, energy and climate change presents huge environmental and societal challenges – heating up the battle to access new

resources, from the Arctic to fracking.

EXPECT

More debate and calls for responsible capitalism.


Explosive population and consumption growth will exacerbate water security challenges in Asia, leading

to potential geopolitical tensions and conflicts.

Source: Princeton

http://www.princeton.edu/~ina/infographics/water.html


Food security is a growing issue. In 2050 the world’s population could demand TWICE as many resources

as the planet can supply.

How can we get more food on the table?

Food hubs like…?

Cropmobster connects producers of edible but unsold

food with those needing it.

More vertical farming? Lab grown food?

http://www.cropmobster.com/impact-food-waste-food-saved-hunger-relief-926/


9. Fighting unemployability and unemployerability

Fighting unemployability is critical while also

fostering talent for the future.


Companies are desperate for talented workers – yet unemployment rates remains high

Unemployed people in the U.S.: 7.3% Unfilled jobs in the U.S.: 3 million Unfilled manufacturing jobs in the U.S.: 200,000+ Caterpillar

attempted to hire 26 employees in the U.S. but nobody

applied!

It is time to rethink how to prepare talent for the future.

Ask: How your organization can move from

unemployability to helping to develop the skills of the

future?

http://www.caterpillar.com/


Governments, NGOs, businesses and other private institutions must rethink their role in

developing future talent.

Financial institution Barclays is working with UNICEF to help reduce youth unemployment through the Building Young Futures programme.

Computer maker Lenovo is partnering with leading Chinese universities to identify top talent that may have gone abroad to study.

The Indian government has launched the National Skill Development Corporation to fund training centers and liaise with industry.


Employers must also focus on organizational unemployerability – not being able to attract and retain

desired talent – as new generations demand exciting and meaningful work where they can make an impact.


Skills making workers and leaders successful today will not stay the same forever. New skills are required.

Want to stay on top of the game? • Social intelligence • Agile thinking • Leadership skills • Cross-cultural skills • Innovative, entrepreneurial mindset • Human-machine collaboration


10. Surviving in a polarizing world: The contradictions of leadership


The US is still a leading superpower but is struggling with a very dysfunctional

political system

… while a melting pot of cultures makes it difficult for the Eurozone to solve

economic, political and security issues.


Companies of all shapes and sizes are playing a bigger role

in solving societal issues.

EXPECT

More companies to combine profit with purpose and

responsibility.

Companies such as Unilever, Tata, Royal DSM, Marks & Spencer and Toronto-Dominion Bank are already leading the way demonstrating it is an approach

making good business sense.

http://www.unilever.com/

http://www.tata.com/

http://www.dsm.com/corporate/home.html

http://corporate.marksandspencer.com/

http://www.td.com/about-tdbfg/our-business/index.jsp




The contradictions of leadership and life are increasing faster than our ability to reconcile the

often polarized perspectives and values each embodies.

Surviving in this world will demand stronger, responsible leadership comfortable with and

capable of embracing ambiguity and uncertainty, as opposed to expecting consistency and predictability.


How will these trends impact your organization?

Are you ready?


This presentation is adapted from the GT Briefing 10 Key Trends to Watch in 2014 and The Global Trends Report 2013: Towards a Distributed Future by Tracey Keys and Thomas Malnight. Electronic copies of the briefing and The Global Trends Report 2013 are available on www.globaltrends.com, and printed copies of The Global Trends Report 2013 can be found on Amazon.com and Amazon’s European sites. Don’t forget to register at www.globaltrends.com now to make sure you don’t miss our next monthly briefing (they are free)! About the Authors

Tracey Keys is Director of Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. Thomas Malnight is a professor of strategy and general management at the International Institute for Management Development (IMD), in Lausanne, Switzerland.

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