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???Page ??? (???)05/05/2008, 18:50:37Page / You only get one life

What to do with it?

See a pattern?

1975: I lost the microcomputer revolution

1985 (-1): I lost the GUI revolution

1995: I lost the web revolution

2005: I lost the Web 2.0 revolution

~2015: the semantic revolution

And we will be one of the drivers

But what are you proposing?

They say that lightning never strikes the same place twice but with Joosts founders it could well become three in a row in terms of phenomenal startups.

TechCrunch

http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/06/15/embedded-joost-will-change-the-market/

2001

In 2002, the Kazaa Web site and logo was sold to Sharman Networks Ltd., which is incorporated on the island of Vanatu near Australia.

2003

2006: Joost

1.000.000 beta users

215 Channels

9208 Programs

Niklas Zennstrm & Janus Friis

Lightning doesnt strike twice

Theyre thinking different!

In the web, running under TCP-IP, data has a physical address.

But to their fasttrack peer-to-peer technology, DATA has no physical address!

I invite you to think different.

But these technologies are hard.

Aren't these guys geniuses?

Is it possible to succeed in Brazil?

The major cost is Diet Coke & Pizza

Can we beat our competitors?

Will our systems pass the do not suck test?

The VCs are arriving

Draper Fisher Jurvetson Enters Brazilian Market

As part of the agreement the two new partners will also launch a $100 million fund, DFJ FIR Brazil Fund II, targeting offshore investors wanting to invest in Brazilian companies in high-growth industries.

DivX, Skype, Mobile 365, and Baidu

But, its not going to be an easy ride

Web 1.0 Crashed

And Web2.0 will, most likely

Excessive euphoria:

-- Geni.com = US$100.000.000,00?

-- Ning.com = US$250.000.000,00?

-- Facebook.com = US$15.000.000.000,00?

Facebook.com = US$15.000.000.000,00?

They could get 20 million kits of Beautiful new look of nose, more than one for each Australian (they go for a mere US$7.50).

"Hey my friend! You have a wide nose. Incidentally, I had a wide nose before, but thanks to 'CoCo Beautiful New Look of Nose', my gargantuan proboscis is a thing of the past. Check it out!"

"Awesome! I can watch this convenient mirror and see my nose slimming down even as I drive my car. Oops, sorry about your kid, lolz!"

"Just a few more months of this torture, and I'll I have a Cleopatra Nose like that big-haired famous lady on TV!"

Gosh, I really hope I get my new nose before I suffer further brain damage from the oxygen starvation caused by my self-induced sleep apnea."

US$15.000.000.000,00

15.000 million-dollar houses?

1 building ~ 30 apartments

500 buildings

1 block ~ 20 buildings

25 blocks

Vieira Souto e Delfim Moreira, inteiras?

Is that the value for these ads?

All variations on these themes have been done

A 3rd reason Web2.0 will most likely crash

3. An economic downturn is coming

-- The Credit Crunch has taken a writedown of 15Billion from Citigroup; ~10Billion from UBS, and so on

-- Meanwhile

Inflation is coming to the US

If inflation comes, money disappears

Google, Yahoo, Microsoft, etc. will lose market value.

which means they will be less able to acquire others.

and the VCs will become risk-averse and most likely turn to green energy.

By 2015, a new revolution will be coming

How can we can prepare for it?

Study and sacrifice

Where do I start?

Success, study, and sacrifice
A little of Paul Graham

Success, study, and sacrifice

How to avoid attention-deficit disorder?

-- Find time. Quiet time!

-- Set your compiler/paper to load automatically when your computer boots

-- Subordinate your life to it

Steve Jobs once said that the success or failure of a startup depends on the first ten employees.

Being small is not, in itself, what makes startups kick butt, but rather that small groups can be select: small in the sense of an all-star team.

Economically, you can think of a startup as a way to compress your whole working life into a few years.

Instead of working at a low intensity for forty years, you work as hard as you possibly can for four.

a conservation law at work

if you want to make a million dollars, you have to endure a million dollars' worth of pain.

For example, one way to make a million dollars would be to work for the Post Office your whole life, and save every penny of your salary. Imagine the stress of working for the Post Office for fifty years.

Imagine the stress of working for the Post Office for fifty years.

In a startup you compress all this stress into four, five years. You do tend to get a certain bulk discount if you buy the economy-size pain, but you can't evade the fundamental conservation law.

If starting a startup were easy, everyone would do it.

At Viaweb I considered myself lucky if I got to hack a quarter of the time. And the things I had to do the other three quarters of the time ranged from tedious to terrifying.

I have a benchmark for this: I once had to leave a board meeting to have some cavities filled. I remember sitting back in the dentist's chair, waiting for the drill, and feeling like I was on vacation.

Success, study, and sacrifice

If you ever feel youre on vacation on the dentist chair, that means youre putting some sacrifice.

2007

Papers in Artificial Intelligence, Minds and Machines, Proceedings of the Cognitive Science Society, Proceedings of EuroCogSci, Cognitive Science, Commentary in Behavioral and Brain Sciences;

Papers rejected, which need more work;

And many new ideas coming from this course

A plan for 2008

Execution

A new course

Autoprogramming

Interchangeable thinkable stuff

Harrys learning algorithms

Integration

A plan for 2008

Nicholas Thesis: Jarbas & Christian

Project for Christians co.

Project for Jarbass work

Plan for 2008

Autoprogramming

Paper for computer science journal

Paper for cognitive science journal

Paper for philosophy/neuroscience journal

Measuring intuition

Psychology or decision making Journal

Brums work

Psychology Journal

Execution is about beautiful design

E=MC2

Good design is beautiful

Simple: When youre forced to be simple, there is no ornament, only the real problem

Timeless: it has no mistakes, and will not be improved with time

Suggestive: It naturally suggests possibilities unforeseen

Good design is beautiful

Hard: All the people that have done great work have worked incredibly hard.

Looks easy: it looks as if everyone could have done it.

Good design is beautiful

Uses symmetry: repetition and recursion

Redesign: the first version is for throwing away

Daring: You have the acquired ability to see ugliness, and your design will seem daring to others.

You only get one life

You only get one life

We are NOT saying that you will get rich.

We are saying that SOMEONE will get rich.

Very much so.

And you can choose to witness it, or to participate.