1. Reflections on Transportation FuturesYesterday, Today, Tomorrow

2. 3. The Present - How we got hereSociety A Society B Everyone lives in 4,000- Everyone lives in 2,000-square-foot houses andsquare-foot houses and hashas no free time for45 minutes available forexercise each day.exercise each day. Everyone lives in 4,000- Everyone lives in 2,000-square-foot houses andsquare-foot houses and hashas time to get togethertime to get together withwith friends one eveningfriends four evenings eacheach month. month. Everyone lives in 4,000- Everyone lives in 2,000-square-foot houses andsquare-foot houses and hashas one week of vacationfour weeks of vacation eacheach year.year.Adapted from Robert H. Frank, Falling Behind 4. 1950 Average New Home 980 square feet for 3.4 people (6) 5. NOW: 5,000-8,000 Sq. Ft. Homes For 2.6people 6. 1973 Honda Civic 1,500 pounds 7. 2010 Honda Civic 2,895 pounds 8. 9. What Is Your ImageOf The Future? 10. 'The Next American Economy' Conference, Palo Alto, California,Feb. 3, 2010 The shape of the next American economy must be export-oriented, low carbon, and innovation fueled.This is a vision where we export more and waste less, innovate in what matters, produce and deploy more of what we invent. This is the kind of productive and sustainable economy which must emerge from the rubble of this recession.Bruce Katz, Vice President and Director, Metropolitan Policy Program, Brookings Institute 11. Toward 2025 We will transform the transportation system in next 15 years, and we must, to keep us competitive and to respond to reality. Will require a whole-systems view of community forms, energy, communications, transportation. Will require Technology + Reconsidered Personal and Community Values Optimism: Well succeed if we choose the right problems and apply the right solutions. 12. The Future Trend 1: Economic volatility Trend 2: Environmental issues stay in foreground Trend 3: End of cheaper and cheaper energy Trend 4: Shifting demographics Challenge 1: Energy Transition Challenge 2: Transportation for living, not living for transportation Challenge 3: Make Philly legal Challenge 4: Breakthrough Thinking 13. Not enough people make enough money to buy what we pretended they could http://ab.typepad.com/.a/6a00e5523754908833010536c48f53970c-800wi 14. Arbor Day Planting Map 15. 16. When is Peak Oil? ImagecreditSuperAlloys.com 17. 2009 IEA World Energy Outlook 50 mbd additional output needed by 2030 18. China Tsunami of New Cars: Increased China consumption wont stop soon. 19. 27 Floridas by 2025 States where at least 20% of The population will be elderly 20. Generations 2025 5 -452w 1 -79 no 6 sown ialnlensil erMom Bolso na diti Tra 80+Post nowGeneration XMillennial now 45-60now 5-25 21. Challenge 1: Energy Transition Tesla 100% Electric 0-60 in 4 seconds 135 mpg equivalent 250 miles per charge 1 cent/mile AltairNano 22. GAO February 2007 Most studies estimate that oil production will peak sometime between now and 2040. In the United States, alternative fuels and transportation technologies face challenges that could impede their ability to mitigate the consequences of a peak and decline in oil production, unless sufficient time and effort are brought to bear. However, there is no coordinated federal strategy for reducing uncertainty about the peaks timing or mitigating its consequences. 23. Is the answer More of the Same? 24. Re-invent Energy by 2050 Increase efficiency of new appliances and buildings to achieve Zero-carbon emissions, resulting in 25% total reduction by 2050. Add 3 million 1-megawatt windmills globally, 75 times Shift 2 billion cars from current capacity. 30 mpg to 60 mpg by 2050. Add 3000 gigawatts of peak solar photovoltaic, Decrease driving for 21000 times current billion cars in halfcapacity. No net new net coal power Develop Zero-emission vehiclesplants 25. William Calvin, Global Fever 26. 17% Increase = All Electric Fleet William Calvin, Global Fever 27. Konarka Technologies, Technology Review July/August 2004 NanoSolar.com 28. Challenge 3: Transportation for Living 29. Mobile Web = Game ChangerCar Sharing + Mobile Web 30. Critical to Increase Transit & Inter-City Rail But 80% in U.S. Live in Thin Cities & Struggle to Access Transit -A major disconnect to creating a balanced U.S. mobility system 31. Missing Ingredient: The Networked Personal Vehicle Right Sized and Right Priced Personal Mobility to Access TransitBased on Dan Sturgis, Intrago 32. Challenge 3: Make Philly Legal http://www.rosschapin.com/ 33. Case Study: Mountlake Terrace Suburb of Seattle Mostly 50s & 60s development Typical 1st ring demographicsSource: Shane Hope, Mountlake Terrace 34. Changing Environment Demographics Busy lifestyles More interest in walking, bicycling, transit Support for Town Center Awareness of climate change & sustainabilitySource: Shane Hope, Mountlake Terrace 35. Mountlake Terrace Development Code 4 Years Ago Single-Household Zone Code Requirements: Min. 7200 or 8400 sf lots * Min. 20 front, rear setbacks * Min. 12 combined side setbacks * Max. 35% lot coverage 2 parking spaces per unit ADUs strongly restricted No design standards * Except for PUDs Source: Shane Hope, Mountlake Terrace 36. Mountlake TerraceDevelopment Code NowSingle-Household ZoneCode Requirements: Min. 7200 or 8400 sf lotswith exceptions Min. 15 front, rear setbacks Min. 5 side setbacks Max. 40% lot coverage Cottage housing OK ADUs OK 2 parking spaces per unit (with exceptions for cottage housing) Design standards requiredSource: Shane Hope, Mountlake Terrace 37. Mountlake Terrace Development Code 4 Years AgoMulti-Household Zone Code Requirements: Max. 8 or 16 du/acre 35 height limit Max. 25% lot coverage 2 parking spaces per unit Mixed use not allowed in most areas No design standards Source: Shane Hope, Mountlake Terrace 38. Mountlake TerraceDevelopment Code NowMulti-family HouseholdZone CodeRequirements: No max. density Max. 50 height limit in some areas Max. 45-65% lot coverage Min. 1 -2 parking spaces per unit Bicycle storage space required Mixed uses OK Design standards required Source: Shane Hope, Mountlake Terrace 39. Other Code Changes inMountlake Terrace Standards for most commercial districts overhauled: Mixed use (res/commercial)OK Design standards required More pedestrian featuresrequired More opportunities for townhomes Parking standards revised Permit process made more efficientSource: Shane Hope, Mountlake Terrace 40. Challenge 4: Breakthrough ThinkingMasdar, Abu Dabai: 50,000, Solar, Desalination, Elevated light rail, Mollor Sky Cars, Pedestrian 41. Mental Models for Futuring Stop the future Adjust and adapt Predict and prepare Create and lead 42. The future is something we do. The future is not something that just Glen Hiemstra happens to us.Futurist.com