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The End of Oil
www.nikolasbadminton.com
Let’s start with some stats…
285m vehicles
Source: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/trade14a-eng.htm + http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-ihs-automotive-average-age-car-20140609-story.html
11.4 years old
Source: http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-ihs-automotive-average-age-car-20140609-story.html
<1%Source: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/trade14a-eng.htm + http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-ihs-automotive-average-age-car-20140609-story.html
And, let’s see how things will change.
http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-ev-oil-crisis/
http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-ev-oil-crisis/
“25% of the cars on the road by 2040 will be EV, displacing 13 million barrels per day of crude oil but using 2,700TWh of electricity.”
Bloomberg New Energy FinanceSource: https://ecowatch.com/2016/03/09/electric-car-revolution-bloomberg/ and http://about.bnef.com/press-releases/electric-vehicles-to-be-35-of-global-new-car-sales-by-2040/
Everyone’s selling EVs
400,000http://www.theverge.com/2016/4/21/11477034/tesla-model-3-preorders-400000-elon-musk
That’s not 2020
That is today!
500K vehicles per year by 2020
“There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.”
Steve Ballmer (Interviewed during his tenure as Microsoft’s CEO in 2007)
The Future
Will our children drive?
Source: Fuels Institute “Driver Demographics”, Federal Highway Administration
“I have 14 years to work on my daughter and to induce within her a love affair with the automobile. I can only hope that when she is 16 she will still “want” to drive herself – otherwise, I will have considered myself a car-enthusiast failure of a father.”
John Eichberger , fulsinstitute.org
Source: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-drive/adventure/red-line/peter-cheney-drives-down-memory-lane-to-a-time-when-cars-were-special/article26796212/
Autonomous Vehicles
2000 deaths per year
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-commentary/how-autonomous-vehicles-will-transform-economies/article28931855/
Lausanne, Switzerland Trikala, Greece Zhengzhou, China Wageningen, Netherlands
Drones
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/sep/25/german-dhl-launches-first-commercial-drone-delivery-service
http://fortune.com/2016/04/06/dispatch-carry-delivery-robot/
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/sep/25/german-dhl-launches-first-commercial-drone-delivery-service
Hyperloop
Hyperloop
What’s Happening?
http://www.citynews.ca/2016/04/28/ontario-budgets-20-million-for-500-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-in-2017/
“We are not dependent solely on oil for our energy needs. Gold, phosphate, uranium, and many other valuable minerals are found beneath our land. But our real wealth lies in the ambition of our people and the potential of our younger generation. They are our nation’s pride and the architects of our future. “
Muhammad Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud Chairman of the Council of Economic and
Development Affairs
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/apr/18/netherlands-parliament-electric-car-petrol-diesel-ban-by-2025
http://qz.com/524877/toyota-has-an-ambitious-plan-to-almost-stop-selling-gasoline-cars-by-2050/
https://cleantechnica.com/2016/04/27/austria-may-ban-sales-new-gas-diesel-cars-2020/
Canada in 2030 & 2050
2030:All public transport, co-op schemes, and taxis will use electric vehicles and will have a greater level of adoption.
2030:Solar power plus electric vehicles will be the desired option for personal transport.
2030:Haulage will be hybridized (at minimum), or use biofuels.
2030:No more traditional gasoline cars will roll off of production lines.
$429bn
$605bn
$513bn
$282bn
2040:Haulage will be 100% biofuels + electric.
2050:86% of the people in the developed world will live in cities (United Nations)
http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/Publications/Files/WUP2014-Highlights.pdf
2050:No-one will use combustion engine anything.
The End of Oil
www.nikolasbadminton.com