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School of something FACULTY OF OTHER
Help or Hindrance? Travel and Energy
Implications of Highly Automated Vehicles
Zia Wadud
Centre for Integrated Energy Research & Institute for Transport Studies
with Don MacKenzie (UWashington); Paul Leiby (ORNL)
Future Powertrains Conference, Solihull, Feb 2015
Objective:
To bound the potential energy impacts
Framework:
Energy Demand = Energy Efficiency
× Travel Demand
Method:
Primarily literature review, aided by
rational assumptions
Scenario building
Study description
Travel demand
Increased car travel
(travel cost reduction)
+ 5%~150%*
*Most likely not as high as 150%, as there will be other constraints
-50% 0% 50% 100% 150%
Platooning
Eco-driving
Congestion mitigation
De-emphasized performance
Improved crash avoidance
Vehicle right-sizing
Higher highway speeds
Increased features
Travel cost reduction
New user groups
Changed mobility services
Infrastructure footprint*
% changes in energy consumption due to vehicle automation
Results (USA)
UK guess
Four scenarios (not predictions!)
-100.0%
0.0%
100.0%
200.0% LDV HDV
Energy Intensity
Travel Demand
Energy Demand
Total Road Transport
Energy
-100.0%
0.0%
100.0%
200.0%
-100.0%
0.0%
100.0%
200.0%
-100.0%
0.0%
100.0%
200.0%
Have our cake & eat it too
Stuck in the middle at L2
Strong responses
Dystopian nightmare
Still large uncertainties
Beware of unintended travel & energy effects
Most travel increases from level 4 automation
Short of level 4 better from energy perspective
..Yet level 4 increases mobility for the disabled and the elderly
Conclusions
http://www.carbonated.tv/news/avis-to-buy-zipcar-as-slow-economy-boosts-carshare-business
http://mobile.nytimes.com/images/100000001261421/2012/01/04/us/hawaii-train-line-is-likely-to-rise-on-oahu.html?_r=0
http://nypost.com/2014/10/19/taxi-shortage-as-uber-lures-away-yellow-cabbies/
http://inhabitat.com/transportation-tuesday-toyotas-lightweight-1x-concept/
http://www.slideshare.net/gonzague2/bertha-sunnyvale-2013-1120-rgh
http://www.roadsafetygb.org.uk/news/3301.html
http://www.ronitbaras.com/emotional-intelligence/personal-development-c/how-to-change-habits-habit-types-and-how-they-
form/
http://superbuzzonline.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/tachometer-plus-1-more.html
http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/advancedresearch/pubs/12033/004.cfm
http://www.autolife.umd.umich.edu/Environment/E_Overview/55mph_SpeedLimit.htm
http://www.emercedesbenz.com/autos/mercedes-benz/concept-vehicles/mercedes-self-driving-cars/attachment/mercedes-
concept-11c1101_060/
https://transportevolved.com/2014/12/29/google-self-driving-prototype-pod-cars-will-begin-road-testing-next-month/
http://www.mylespaul.com/forums/backstage/201046-i-drive-like-old-woman-im-damned-proud-2.html
http://www.cloudsoftct.com/erp.html#
http://www.backpacker-girls.com/2011/06/europe-land-for-special-disabled-person.html
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2010/nov/21/mobility-aid-oft-scrutiny
http://www.automocionblog.com/post/9637/general-motors-trabaja-en-una-segunda-generacion-del-en-v-pod
Image courtesy