2013 skc lecture richard brown

Transport and Sustainable City Growth

Sir Kenneth Cork Management Lecture

CMI City of London BranchNovember 11th 2013

Richard Brown

Agenda

• Recent travel and population growth in London• Transport's environmental impact• Transport's growth impact• Future growth forecasts• How can this be accommodated? • Conclusions

Recent Population Growth

1983 -2012 2002 - 2012London +23%(+1.6m) +12% (+0.9m)

South East +19%(+1.4m) +8% (+0.7m)

England & Wales +14%(+6m) +7% (+4m)

Source: O.N.S.

Growth in peak central London commuting

1996 – 2008Rail +111,000 +28%Tube +72,000 +22%Bus +37,000 +68%Car -73,000 -51%Cycle +13,000 +160%

Total +163,000 +16%

Source: UK Transport Statistics

The car - a mode on the decline

Growing in popularity – the Underground

Modal share of central London commuting

1996 2008Rail 40% 44%Tube 33% 35%Bus 9% 11%Car 14% 6%Cycle 2% 3%

Environmental performance

London BusLondon Underground

UK Rail

Black Cab

Average petrol car

Average hybrid car

Looks a busy road…

…but when you strip back the metal not many people are moved!

Visual proof that buses are a solution to traffic congestion

Modal performance

How has travel growth been accommodated?

• More trains: 36% (1997-2011)• Tube upgrades:

• Victoria Line = +21% capacity• Northern Line = +20%• Jubilee Line = +20%

• London Overground/Orbital• Javelin High Speed Service on HS1• More buses: +50% (1996 -2012)

Impact of Eurostar and HS1 on growth

• 3.8m French tourists in 2012– No. 1 origin country!

• 350,000 French nationals in London– France’s 6th city

• Regeneration of Kings Cross, Stratford and N. Kent• Estimated £10bn of wider economic benefits• £5.8bn cost

Forecasts for London growth to 2033

• Population: +1m (+13%)….or 50,000

people p.a.

• Jobs +600,000• Households +500,000

Source: London Plan

But other forecasts point to faster growth

• ONS forecast 16% or + 9.0 million growth in England and Wales to 2035

• If London growth continues as before this would imply +26% growth over next 20 years or + 100,000 people each year

• Other commentators, eg Lord Adonis and London Assembly Transport Committee, agree

Crossrail

• £14.8 bn cost. Completion 2018.• Adds 10% to London rail capacity, 4.5% to

total transport capacity.

Thameslink

• £6.0 bn cost. Completion 2018.

• Adds c.6.5% to London rail capacity, 3.0% to total transport capacity.

Future transport capacity increases

Additional capacity Cost Completion Date

Thameslink +3% £6.0 bn 2012-18Crossrail +4.5% £14.8bn 2018Longer trains + electrification +3-5% £12.2 bn 2019HS2 phase 1 +2% £17.2bn 2026HS2 phase 2 - £17.0bn 2032Crossrail 2 ? ? early 2030s?

• Total capacity increase of 12.5 – 14.5%

Conclusions

• Growth and transport inextricability linked

• Transport facilitates and drives growth

• Continuing investment is essential