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1© 2008 Alan Quayle
Why Operators Need DevelopersAlan Quayle
Business and Service Developmentwww.alanquayle.com/blog
2© 2008 Alan Quayle
Mobile Application Revenue could reach $6B by 2013, 2008 is was $118M (US), $240M (Global)
Broader Mobile Data Revenue breakdown by type of service, 2008-2014
Source: Pyramid Research Mobile Data Forecasts, Q1 2009
$6B Mobile application revenue is part of broader $46B mobile data revenue opportunity by 2013
3© 2008 Alan Quayle
Re-engineering the Web
’90-’05Development of the
basic platform.
Focus on infrastructure, capacity expansion and mass
market connectivity.
<100kbps
’00-’10Focus on user
experience, open programmable systems,
connecting people.
Partner with media companies, social networking, advertising based models, IP
control and QoS.
<10Mbps
’10-’20Web becomes intelligent, understand / anticipates users needs – rise of the
‘trusted agent.’
Fundamental shift in business model, dumb or smart pipe? Question mark of operators’
role as ‘trusted agent.’
<100Mbps
Web 1.0
Web 2.0
Web 3.0
Era Date Characteristic Access Operator Implications
Can Operators become the Trusted Agent?
4© 2008 Alan Quayle
Power of Devices drives Peer to Peer
Assumptions ShatteredFaster CPUs, 3D graphics
Massive storageHigh definition displays
Media centricSmartphone penetration >50%
Always OnlineMultiple PDP context
Multiple accessApplication driven
Web-centric
Intelligently ConnectedPush as well as pull
Pervasive P2PSmart UIs
Context aware
Intelligence is now also at the edge
5© 2008 Alan Quayle
Customer’s Perceptions are Changing
OtherVoice
Utility
Productivity
PIM
MultimediaBrowsing
Games
Messaging
Source: Nokia Smartphone 360 SurveyTime allocated to different applications
Applications are no longer ‘web’ or
‘telecom’ services –they’re just apps.
User doesn’t care if message delivered by SMS, MMS, IM
or email.
Subscribers are no longer ‘voice subscribers,’
they’re Internet subscribers – voice
is just an app.Access to
multimedia is no longer constrained
by the network
Mobile broadband starts to substitute fixed broadband
Voice makes up an increasingly small percentage of a smartphone’s usage, critical to embed such capabilities into other apps/processes
6© 2008 Alan Quayle
Web-based Service Providers are Innovating Faster in Service Providers Core Business
And customers now expect this rate of innovation from their service providers
7© 2008 Alan Quayle
Which means that…..
Operators must act now or become a dumb pipe
•Broadband is the growth engine for telecom.•Increasing access capacity increases web-service capabilities
•Broadband is an enablers for all services•Market boundaries diminish as customers expectations change.•Move from vertically to horizontally integrated
•Growth of Web 2.0 community services•“Freemium” models•‘Boiling Frog’expansion into voice
•Web 2.0 start to cannibalize telco’s services•Voice, messaging, IPTV•Multi-play becomes multi-access
Fixed and mobile Broadband is an enabler
Services independent of the network
Rapid usage growth and innovation
8© 2008 Alan Quayle
Why Operators are Deploying SDPs
Access & Distribution
Intelligent Connectivity Applications ContentWholesale
Brokering
Utility access where differentiation is price and network quality.
Bit Pipe
Content and Service Provider
Smart PipeOpen access, controlled and monetized QoS, Billing, Data Mining, Capability Wholesale, Ad Broker
There will be no clear cut between the different scenarios, multiple business models and revenue modules will co-exist.
9© 2008 Alan Quayle
Re-Launch
An Operator’s Product Development Process
Opportunity Identified
18-30 months
Market Research
Find Budget
New product development processLaunch
12-18 months
12© 2008 Alan Quayle
High StreetStores
SubsidizedPhones
NetworkControl
EcosystemControl
CustomerRelationship
Brand
BillingRelationship
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