Smart machines -esitys Tampereella 02/2016

Smart machinesThe smart machine era will be the most disruptive in the history of IT.Gartner (8th Oct 2014)

05.02.2016

Tulevaisuus on täällä!

ED-209, Robocop, 1987

Gartner ja Smart Machines● Gartner on listannut älykkäät koneet (Smart Machines)

10 tulevaisuuden strategisten teknologioiden joukkoon useana vuotena peräkkäin

www.smartmachines.fi

Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014● Web-Scale IT● Smart Machines● 3D Printing● The Era of Personal Cloud● Software-Defined Anything● Mobile Device Diversity and Management● Mobile Apps and Applications● The Internet of Everything● Hybrid Cloud & IT as a Service Broker● Cloud/Client Architecture

Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2015● Computing Everywhere● The Internet of Things● 3D Printing● Advanced, Pervasive and Invisible Analytics● Context-Rich Systems● Smart Machines● Cloud/Client Computing● Software-Defined Applications and Infrastructure● Web-Scale IT● Risk-Based Security and Self-Protection

Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2016● The Device Mesh● Ambient User Experience● 3D Printing Materials● Information of Everything● Advanced Machine Learning● Autonomous Agents and Things● Adaptive Security Architecture● Advanced System Architecture● Mesh App and Service Architecture● Internet of Things Platforms

Smart Machines kirjoituksiaKirjoituksia aiheesta “Smart Machines”:● How Smart, Connected Products Are Transforming Competition

Harvard Business Review, Nov 2014

● Hype Cycle of Smart Machines releasedGartner, Jul 2014

● McKinsey writes about Smart MachinesMcKinsey Quarterly, Sep 2014

● Economist writes about Smart Machines“The Age of Smart Machines”, May 2014

● Cool Vendors of Smart MachinesGartner, Apr 2015

Klassikkokirja 1

The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies

Brynjolfsson, McAfee

Uusi klassikkokirja?

Rise Of The Robots: Technology and the threat of a jobless future (May 2015)

M. Ford

Määritelmiä: Smart Machines“Smart machines include robots, self-driving cars and other cognitive computing systems that are able to make decisions and solve problems without human intervention.”Techtarget.com

“[Smart Machines are]...contextually aware, intelligent personal assistants, smart advisors (such as IBM Watson), advanced global industrial systems and public availability of early examples of autonomous vehicles”Gartner

“...a smart machine is an intelligent device that uses machine-to-machine (M2M) technology. Smart machines include robots, self-driving cars and other cognitive computing systems that are able to make decisions and solve problems without human intervention.”Techtarget.com

Viitekehys: Smart Machines1. Observe

learn by observing2. Tests

test the real world3. Autonomous

behave autonomously4. Probabilistic

making decision based on probabilities5. Predicts

predict the future based on models and calculations6. Purpose

narrow in purpose, each machine has its own purpose and there are different machines for different purposes7. Understands

appear to understand concepts, relationships, causalities8. Human reaction

“I didn’t know a machine could do that!”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4kfdkCFQ2gwww.smartmachines.fi

Gartner tried to answer the question in July 2014

Viitekehys jatkuu● Smart Machines are technologies that:

○ Deal with high levels of complexity and uncertainty

○ Decision making based on probabilistics

○ Understanding of task-specific contexts

○ Multitude of uses

○ Some gauge person’s feelings by examining facial movements etc.

http://gartnernews.com/smart-machine-disruption-will-dominate-this-decade/www.smartmachines.fi

Mikä tekee koneista älykkäitä?

http://www.slideshare.net/GarimaNanda/seminar-smart-machinewww.smartmachines.fi

Intelligentcapable to operate autonomously

Secureavoid and correct processing errors

Managedlearn and anticipate future events

Connectedinteract with other machines and

systems

Smart Machines ja 3 D:tä

http://gartnernews.com/three-emerging-trends-drive-digital-business/www.smartmachines.fi

Gartner puhuu myös käsitteestä “Smart Things”

Uudet teknologiat ovat mahdollistajia

● Älykkäiden koneiden idea ei ole uusi, mutta nyt niiden aika on koittanut

→ Täydellinen myrskyteknologioiden ja käsitteiden kypsyysaste on riittävä

Innovaatiot ovat avain● Tärkeimmät innovaatiot ovat niin sanottuja

yhdisteleviä innovaatioita(combinatory innovations*)

● Luova tuho on niiden kohtalo, jotka eivät ole kykeneviä muutokseen

● Muutosvauhti voi olla yllättävän nopea

* The Second Machine Age, Brynjolfsson & McAfeewww.smartmachines.fi

Muutoksen vaiheet1. Ihmettely

○ “These machines are amazing!”2. Innovaatiot, vaihe 1

○ “Changing the way business is done within existing industries” 3. Innovaatiot, vaihe 2

○ “Creating new industries”4. Innovaatiot, vaihe 3

○ “Destruction of old industries / business models”5. Ekosysteemien aika (The Age of Ecosystems)

○ “High-technologization of industries, ecosystem-level competition”

Teknologia ja ajoitus● Smart Machines ilmiönä rakentuu suurelta osin olemassa

olevien teknologioiden ja innovaatioiden varaan

○ Cloud computing○ Big data○ Internet of Everything○ Robotics

Tutut käsitteet taustallaCloud computing

● IaaS● PaaS● SaaS

Big Data

● Volume● Variety● Velocity

multiple other V’s

Internet of Everything

● People● Things● Places● Information

Robotics

● Industrial● Service● Consumer

Smart Machines yhdistelee 2000-luvun tuttuja ilmiöitä

Cloud Computing is the brainpowering Smart Machines

Pilvipalvelut

Hypestä normiksi

Pilvipalveluiden rooli● Pilvipalvelut ovat älykkäiden koneiden mahdollistaja

“Imagine a robot that finds an object that it's never seen or used before—say, a plastic cup. The robot could simply send an image of the cup to the cloud and receive back the object’s name, a 3-D model, and instructions on how to use it”J. Kuffner, Google

IEEE: Jan 2011, http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/robotics-software/cloud-roboticswww.smartmachines.fi

Division of execution

Onboard execution

➢ Simple, repetitive tasks

➢ Motorics

➢ Tasks related to events that always demand immediate response

Cloud execution

➢ Complex tasks

➢ Machine learning

➢ Tasks that demand compute- or memory-intensive analytics

Quote: Ken Goldberg,Berkeley University

“Robot learning is going to be greatly accelerated. Putting it a little simply, one robot can spend 10,000 hours learning something, or 10,000 robots can spend one hour learning the same thing.”

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/10/25/the-robot-in-the-cloud-a-conversation-with-ken-goldbergwww.smartmachines.fi

Koneoppiminen ja Youtube● Robots learning to cook by watching Youtube

www.smartmachines.fi http://arxiv.org/pdf/1112.6209v5.pdf

Researchers have come up with a new way to teach robots how to use tools simply by watching videos on YouTube.

Robot Learning Manipulation Action Plans by ‘Watching’ Unconstrained Videos from the World Wide Web

Image Credit: Erik Charlton/Flickr

Advanced Analytics provides wisdom to Smart Machines

Mitä tarkoittaa big data?

http://aws.amazon.com/kinesis/www.smartmachines.fi

Datan ulottuvuudet

Big datan rooli● Esimerkki pilvipalveluista“Amazon Kinesis is a fully managed service for real-time processing of streaming data at massive scale. Amazon Kinesis can collect and process hundreds of terabytes of data per hour from hundreds of thousands of sources, allowing you to easily write applications that process information in real-time, from sources such as web site click-streams, marketing and financial information, manufacturing instrumentation and social media, and operational logs and metering data.” An Inside Look at Google BigQuery

Big datan rooli● Edistynyt analytiikka auttaa mallintamaan ilmiötä ja

ennustamaan tulevaa“Machine learning–mining historical data with computer systems to predict future trends or behavior–touches more and more lives every day. Search engines, online recommendations, ad targeting, virtual assistants, demand forecasting, fraud detection, spam filters–machine learning powers all these modern services. But these uses barely scratch the surface of what's possible.”Microsoft Azure Machine Learning

http://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/services/machine-learning/www.smartmachines.fi

Esimerkki: IBM Watson● IBM Watson on saatavilla palveluna (alk. 09/2014)

“In the future a cleaning robot in the hospital corridor connected to Medical Watson might be able to give you more precise diagnosis and prognosis than the doctor who you are waiting to see.”

IBM Watson ja älykäs lelu“CogniToy works by pressing a button on its belly and asking it questions. The toy connects via Wi-Fi to the Watson servers, looks up the answer, and responds.”Tech.co

Robotics makes digitalization visible in production, services, transportation and all other areas of life

Teollisuusrobottien myyntitilasto

Worldrobotics.org: http://www.worldrobotics.org/uploads/tx_zeifr/June_04__2014_PI_IFR_World_Robot_Market.pdf

Record high sales of industrial robots in 2013

“Turning to the projections for the period of 2013 to 2016, sales forecast which were provided by companies worldwide indicate an increase to about 94,800 units with an estimated value of US$ 17.1 billion.

Thereof, about 28,000 robots for defense applications are expected to be sold in the period of 2013 to 2016. They are followed by milking robots with about 24,500 units. However, this is probably a rather conservative estimate. These two service robot groups make up 55% of the total forecast of service robots at the current time.”

Palvelurobotit

Worldrobotics.org: http://www.ifr.org/service-robots/statistics/

Kotitalousrobotit

Worldrobotics.org: http://www.ifr.org/service-robots/statistics/www.smartmachines.fi

...vacuum and floor cleaning, lawn-mowing robots, and entertainment and leisure robots, including toy robots, hobby systems, education and research.

Droonit

https://www.sensefly.com/drones/ebee.html

No piloting skills requiredThe eBee takes off, flies and lands autonomously.

The artificial intelligence incorporated in the senseFly autopilot continuously analyzes data from the Inertial Measurement Unit and the onboard GPS and takes care of all aspects of the flight mission.

Droonit

https://atmelcorporation.wordpress.com/2014/10/08/gartner-smart-machine-disruption-will-dominate-this-decade/www.smartmachines.fi

Työpaikkoja häviää ja uusia syntyy

Gartner

● 1960-luvulla Suomen metsissä työskenteli enimmillään 200 000 metsätyöntekijää

● 2000-luvulla Suomen metsissä työskentelee noin 5000-10 000 metsätyöntekijää

Vähennys siis jopa > 95 %!

Esimerkki: metsätalous

● 2010-luvulla Suomen teillä ajaa noin 100 000 ammattikuljettajaa

● Montako luulet heitä olevan vuonna 2050?

Esimerkki: logistiikka

Kuluttajarobotiikka

https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/jibo-the-world-s-first-family-robot

Jibokickstarter project, shipping 2015

What is Jibo? It’s a little pod with a motorized swivel, equipped with cameras, microphones and a display. It recognizes faces and voices, and can act as a personal assistant by setting reminders, delivering messages and offering to take group photos. It also serves as a telepresence robot for video chat.Time.com

Internet of ThingsThere are 50 to 500 billion connected devices in 2020

IDC, General Electric

Smart, connected things● Harward Business Review (Nov 2014)

“Embedded sensors, processors, software, and connectivity in products, coupled with a product cloud in which product data is stored and analyzed and some applications are run, are driving dramatic improvements in product functionality and performance”

www.smartmachines.fi HBR: https://hbr.org/2014/11/how-smart-connected-products-are-transforming-competition

IBM SyNAPSE chip● Siru, joka matkii aivojen

rakennetta (esiteltiin 08/2014)

IBM: http://www.research.ibm.com/cognitive-computing/neurosynaptic-chips.shtml

The architecture can solve a wide class of problems from vision, audition, and multi-sensory fusion, and has the potential to revolutionize the computer industry by integrating brain-like capability into devices where computation is constrained by power and speed.

Google Brain● Tekoäly, Artificial Intelligence (AI) saa nyt paljon

huomiota

www.smartmachines.fi http://arxiv.org/pdf/1112.6209v5.pdf

Building High-level FeaturesUsing Large Scale Unsupervised Learning

Our high-level detectors also outperform standard baselines in terms of recognition rates, achieving 74.8% and 76.7% on cat and human body respectively. In comparison, best linear filters (sampled from the training set) only achieve 67.2% and 68.1% respectively.

Stanford & Google -paper Jul 2012

Cat face drawn by computer base on looking at cat images from Youtube.

Go-peli"Many Go players see the game as the final bastion of human dominance over computers.", Wired 2014http://www.wired.com/2014/05/the-world-of-computer-go/

Go-peli"A computing system developed by Google researchers has beaten a top human player at the game of Go", Wired 2016http://www.wired.com/2016/01/in-a-huge-breakthrough-googles-ai-beats-a-top-player-at-the-game-of-go/

Intel Edison● Muistatko Raspberry Pi:n?

● Intel Edison kehittää minikokoisen tietokoneen ajatusta eteenpäin

● Sovitettavissa lähes mihin tahansa (leveys vain 35 mm)

Intel: http://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/do-it-yourself/edison.html

The Intel® Edison development platform is the first in a series of low-cost, product-ready, general purpose compute platforms that help lower the barriers to entry for entrepreneurs in the Internet of Things (IoT).

3,5 cm

Particle (aikaisemmin Spark)

● Particle is a Wi-Fi and cellular development kits for connecting devices and “things” to internet

Particle: www.particle.iowww.smartmachines.fi

The Smart Machine era will be the most disruptive in the history of IT.Gartner Oct 2013

Smart, connected products● Physical components

○ Example: The core product itself

● Smart components○ Example: Intel Edison, Raspberry Pi

● Connectivity○ Example: Particle

by HBR

HBR: https://hbr.org/2014/11/how-smart-connected-products-are-transforming-competition

Smart Machines -kategoriat, 1● Movers

○ Example: Google “Self-Driving car”

● Doers○ Example: Rethinking Robotics “Baxter”

● Sages○ Example: IBM “Watson”

IBM: Oct 2013, http://www.ibmbigdatahub.com/blog/rise-smart-machines-nothing-fear-now-austinwww.smartmachines.fi

by IBM

Movers

Google Self-Driving Car: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_driverless_carwww.smartmachines.fi

Google Driverless Car

Tulevaisuuden liikenne“...vuonna 2025 liikenteen kotimainen palvelumarkkina on 5 miljardia euroa ja työllistää 50 000 henkilöä”http://www.elisa.net/tulevaisuuden-liikenne/

Rething robotics: http://www.rethinkrobotics.com/baxter/www.smartmachines.fi

Baxter

IBM: http://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/us/en/ibmwatson/what-is-watson.htmlwww.smartmachines.fi

IBM Watson beating top human players in Jeopardy 2011

Smart Machines -kategoriat, 2● Expert systems (sages)

○ Example: IBM “Watson”

● Autonomous robots (movers, doers)○ Example: Google “Self-Driving car”

● Intelligent assistants (helpers?)○ Examples: Apple “Siri”, Microsoft “Cortana”

Technavio: Oct 2014, http://www.technavio.com/blog/know-your-robots-top-three-types-of-smart-machinewww.smartmachines.fi

by Technavio

Smart Machines -kategoriat

Categoriessource: IBM

Categoriessource: Technavio

Sages Expert Systems

Movers Autonomous Robots

Doers Intelligent Assistants

Asiantuntijuus automatisoituna

www.smartmachines.fi Technavio: Oct 2014, http://www.technavio.com/blog/know-your-robots-top-three-types-of-smart-machine

Problem Definition

System Design

Formalization

System Implementation

System Validation

Autonomisen robotin ominaispiirteet

● Self-Maintenance● Ability to sense the environment (sensors)● Ability to perform physical tasks (motorics)● Ability to navigate point to point (movement)

Eettinen ohjelmointi?Gartner: Smart Machines Require Ethical Programming:● Level 0: Non-Ethical Programming

○ no explicit considerations for the behavior of technology

● Level 1: Ethical Oversight○ no ethical programming, but deployment and usage may have ethical considerations

● Level 2: Ethical Programming○ responsibility is shared between the user, the service provider and the designer

● Level 3: Evolutionary Ethical Programming○ ethical programming as part of a machine that learns and evolves autonomously

● Level 4: Machine-Developed Ethics○ smart machines become self-aware, they will need to be raised and taught and their ethics need to evolve

Gartner: http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3007417www.smartmachines.fi

Virtuaaliset assistentitFirst Generationbased on text, low-quality end-user interface

Second Generationinteractive moving, cartoon type characters, text-to-text, only little speech

Third Generationanimation, responses to speech, functionality to measure response accuracy

Fourth Generationquality animated characters, dashboards, analytics, mobile solutions, high accuracy

Fifth Generation3D images, extraordinary accuracy, requests feedback, full speech-to-speech support

Wearables, augmented reality“Clothing and accessories incorporating computer and advanced electronic technologies”Wikipedia, Sep 2014

Microsoft HoloLens

Apple Watch

Wearables, kategoriat1. Lifestyle

○ enhancing and simplifying everyday tasks and activities

2. Entertainment○ providing enjoyment and entertainment to the user

3. Health & Fitness○ giving insight to the user by showing personal body data

www.smartmachines.fi http://wearableworldnews.com/2014/05/06/wearable-world-taxonomy

Eksoskeletonit● “A powered exoskeleton, also known as powered armor, exoframe, or

exosuit, is a mobile machine consisting primarily of an outer framework (akin to an insect's exoskeleton) worn by a person, and powered by a system of motors or hydraulics that delivers at least part of the energy for limb movement.”Wikipedia

● Gaining a lot of attention with huge possibilities to offer (ie ReWalk*)

www.smartmachines.fi http://wearableworldnews.com/2014/05/06/wearable-world-taxonomy

*ReWalk helps paralyzed people to walk again. It had a successful IPO on Nasdac in Sep 2014

Älykkäiden koneiden rooli taloudessa● Assist people● Advise people● Observe and help people● Extend people

● Replace people?...

IBM: Oct 2013, http://www.ibmbigdatahub.com/blog/rise-smart-machines-nothing-fear-now-austinwww.smartmachines.fi

Kuka omistaa älykkään koneen?“It’s John Deere’s tractor, folks. You’re just driving it.”

Wired: http://www.wired.com/2015/04/dmca-ownership-john-deere/www.smartmachines.fi

http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_of_Jobs.pdf

Työn tulevaisuus?

Oxford Martin School: Sep 2013, http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf

“According to our estimate, 47 percent of total US employment is in the high risk category, meaning that associated occupations are potentially automatable over some unspecified number of years, perhaps a decade or two“The future of employment: how suspectible are jobs to computerisation?Frey & Osborne, Oxford Martin School

Työpaikkoja häviää varmasti

http://www.computerworld.com/article/2691607/one-in-three-jobs-will-be-taken-by-software-or-robots-by-2025.html

“One in three jobs will be taken by [Smart Machines] by 2025“Peter Sondergaard, Gartner research director, Oct 2014

Vielä tarvetta ihmisillekin?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/darden/2015/01/12/the-ai-revolution-will-humanize-businesses/www.smartmachines.fi

“The predictions from experts at MIT, IBM and Oxford are that humans still will be needed for jobs requiring complex critical thinking, creativity, innovative thinking, and high emotional and social engagement with other humans, as well as performing customized manual tasks requiring physical dexterity.”Forbes, Jan 2015, Ai Revolution Will Humanize Businesses

www.smartmachines.fi twitter.com/immon

What next?● Innovaatiot

● Investoinnit

● Luova tuho

● Uutta osaamista tarvitaan

Smart machines -esitys Tampereella 02/2016

Technology

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