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Here's a presentation by Dennis Meadows created for his open lecture at SKOLKOVO business school on April 14, 2012.Dennis Meadows is Honorary Professor of Management Systems, Honorary Doctor of 4 universities around the world, laureate of international awards, co-author of the bestseller "The Limits to Growth".
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Professor Dennis Meadows“New Business Opportunities
for a Limited World. Next 50 Years”
for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVOOpen Lecture 14 April 2012
Outline of Speech
Main conclusions from the Club of Rome StudyWhat I will include and excludeThe two foreseeable limits affecting Russian business – energy scarcity and climate changeWhat do “limits” mean?Creating new businesses for a limited world
Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVOOpen Lecture 14 April 2012 2
Exercise on Habits
4Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVOOpen Lecture 14 April 2012
Our Main Conclusions
A computer model cannot prove there are physical limits to physical growth on a physically finite planet. We showed that population and industrial growth are inherently exponential; and that exponential growth will take global society to any existing limit quickly, where ever that limit is.
5Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVOOpen Lecture 14 April 2012
We are following the collapse scenario
From: Growing within Limits, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, October 2009, page 23.
6Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVOOpen Lecture 14 April 2012
The Time of Greatest StressMost people assume that the major global difficulties would occur after the end to growth. This is not correct.The globe’s population would experience the most stress prior to the peak, as pressures mount high enough to neutralize the enormous political, demographic, and economic forces that now sustain growth. We are in the early phases of that period now; you will experience more change over the next 20 years than occurred during the past 100 years.
7Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVOOpen Lecture 14 April 2012
Issues Included & Excluded
I include two main continuous trends– Global oil production is falling -> energy limits– Global climate is changing -> water and food
limitsI exclude many possible discontinuous trends
– Volcanoes could limit food production– Solar flares could damage the electricity and
electronics sectors– Epidemics could limit transportation
8Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVOOpen Lecture 14 April 2012
Global Oil Production is Falling
Global Primary Energy Consumption by Source in 2010A Comparison to Total Non-Hydro Renewable* Energy
10Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVOOpen Lecture 14 April 2012
11Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVOOpen Lecture 14 April 2012
The Easy Oil is Gone
Oil discoveries peaked in 1960s. Every year since 1984 oil consumption has exceeded oil discovery. In 2009 discoveries were about 5 billion barrels (bb); consumption was about 31 bb.Of the world’s 20 largest oil fields, 18 were discovered 1917 - 1968; 2 in the 1970s; 0 since.
12Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVOOpen Lecture 14 April 2012
90
85
80
75
70
65
Million Barrels/Day Year
Global Oil Production
Series 1
19952009
13Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVOOpen Lecture 14 April 2012
Global Oil Production is Nearing the End of its Plateau
1995 - 1999 + 5.5%2000 - 2004 + 7.9 %2005 - 2009 + 0.4 %
- data from the International Statistical Supplement – 2010 edition, International Energy Agency, p. 18
2010 - 2030 – 50%** Projection from Crude Oil – The Supply
Outlook, Energy Watch Group, Feb 2008, p. 12.
14Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVOOpen Lecture 14 April 2012
15Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVOOpen Lecture 14 April 2012
“By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD”
- U S Joint Forces Command, Joint Operating Environment Report, February, 2010
“Peak Oil Production May Already be Here” - Science, p. 1510, Vol 331, March 25, 2011
Awareness is Growing that the Oil Peak Has Passed
16Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVOOpen Lecture 14 April 2012
Oil Price Signals the Decline
17Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVOOpen Lecture 14 April 2012
18Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVOOpen Lecture 14 April 2012
Global Climate is Changing
CO2 Concentration
20Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVOOpen Lecture 14 April 2012
The Globe is Becoming Warmer
Since the 1970s, each subsequent decade has gotten hotter – and 9 of the 10 hottest years on record occurred since 2000. The head of the state weather service, Alexander Frolov, said that the heatwaveof 2010 was the worst in 1,000 years of recorded Russian history
21Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVOOpen Lecture 14 April 2012
Precipitation is Becoming More Extreme
Worldwide, 2010 and 2011 were the wettest years over land in recorded history.In the United States 7 states had their wettest year in history in 2011; several others had their driest year in recorded history. Artic ice fell to its lowest volume in history in 2011. Western El Salvador, received nearly 1.5
meters of rain in 10 days. 22Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO
Open Lecture 14 April 2012
23Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVOOpen Lecture 14 April 2012
Climate Change is:
Rising temperature -> lower crop yieldsChanges in precipitation -> lower crop yieldsShifting cultivation zonesGrowing acidity in the oceanGreater instability in windsMigration of ecological zones, pests, diseasesRising sea levelThus, massive changes in human settlements, in migration, in political systems, and in patterns of agricultural and industrial production
24Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVOOpen Lecture 14 April 2012
25Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVOOpen Lecture 14 April 2012
Water Stress.The World Today
Severe water stress
26Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVOOpen Lecture 14 April 2012
0
4
8
0,0
0,7
1,4
0,0
0,2
0,4
World OECD
Current Water Withdrawals [1,000 km³/a]
Sub-SaharanAfrica
Agriculture
Domestic
Industry
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Global withdrawals 3800 km3 /a
27Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVOOpen Lecture 14 April 2012
The Effect of Limits
+
29Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVOOpen Lecture 14 April 2012
Capital Cost of Production & Use
0 1Fraction of Resource Remaining
Cap
ital
Req
uire
d fo
r
Prod
ucti
on &
Use
30Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVOOpen Lecture 14 April 2012
Capital Investments for US Energy
150 oil refineries4000 offshore platforms160,000 miles of oil pipelines10,400 electricity generating plants410 underground gas storage fields1.4 million miles of gas pipelines160,000 miles of high voltage powerlinesPort facilities to handle 15 million barrels/day of oil
31Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVOOpen Lecture 14 April 2012
_
32Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVOOpen Lecture 14 April 2012
Four Factors Determine the Amount of Oil Consumption
33Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVOOpen Lecture 14 April 2012
© Dennis Meadows
Four Factors Determine the Amount of CO2 Emissions
CO2 Emissions
Number Units of Energy Fraction of of x Capital x Required per x Energy from People Per Person Capital Unit Fossil Fuels
Demography Technology
Solar EnergyCulturalNorms
Efficiency
© Dennis Meadows (2007)
34Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVOOpen Lecture 14 April 2012
Renewable Costs are Declining
35Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVOOpen Lecture 14 April 2012
New Business Opportunities
Adapting to energy scarcity– Less transportation, especially air transport– Lower discretionary income for luxuries– New markets for non-fossil energy– Higher demand for energy-efficient methods for
producing food, materials, and goods
Adapting to climate change– Reducing greenhouse gas emissions– Increasing the resilience of food production– Developing water conservation methods
36Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVOOpen Lecture 14 April 2012
Stay in touch with the SKOLKOVO business school
Website: www.skolkovo.ruFacebook: www.facebook.com/skolkovoTwitter: @skolkovo
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