Science: driving or preventing large-scale land investments?

Science: driving or preventing large-scale land investments?

Elaborating on the nexus among Land, Water, Food, Energy and Climate.

Table of Contents What is the role of Science in tackling

such issues?

Water, Food and Energy nexus Two driving/limiting factors: climate and

land

Large scale land acquisition: what does the Science say?

Defining science "Science is the pursuit of knowledge and

understanding of the natural and social world following a systematic methodology based on evidence.”

UK Science Council

Science is about the travel, not the destination.

“Science is a culture of doubt.” Richard Feynman

Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013

Why should the opinion of Science matter? Science is a key engine to expand our

understanding of facts

Science as a catalyst for discussion and engagement

Science as a driver for Policy Making

Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013

Which Science are we talking about?

Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013

Which Science are we talking about? Academies & Science societies Public/Private Universities Industry science Governmental research institutes Independent research groups

Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013

What challenges do most of scientists face? Complexity Uncertainty

Siloed approaches still spreading Shrinking resources

Telling the rest of the world all of the above

Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013

My two cents, today

“The opposite of a great truth is also true.”

Niels Bohr

Agriculture is a game-changer, and land is the battlefield Rural Development Gender Climate change WEF nexus

Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013

Unfolding intricacies: the WEF nexus Increase in population and overall quality of

life Demand for water, food and energy:

+30/50% between 2010 and 2030 Short-term response induced by disparities

likely to have heavy effects on longer-term sustainability

Any strategy focusing on one side only risks severe unattended consequences

World Economic Forum, 2011

Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013

Unfolding intricacies: WEF and Agriculture

Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013

Earth at Night (Suomi NPP satellite, 2012)

Climate as a driving force

Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013

Climate vs Agriculture

Food production: decrease by up to 2% each decade for 21st century

Global food demand: increase by as much as 14% each decade

Extreme weather increase risks to food production

IPCC leaked report

Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013

Agriculture vs Climate

Agriculture = major contributor of methane and nitrous oxide

Agriculture accounts as much as transport & industry emissions

Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013

CCAFSCGIAR

Land: the battlefield

Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013

Land

Energy Food

Water

Industry

Public

Com-munity

Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013

Large-scale land investments: what is Science saying?

Large-scale land investments: data & approach issues Data and information gap

“Researchers needed to make multiple contacts and meetings with governmental officers to access even superficial and incomplete information”

L. Cotula, 2009

Emergence of key partners outside traditional scientific communities

Two main strategies Data gathering from public reports Data gathering form official governmental registries

Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013

Large-scale land investments: what is Science saying?How much? “There will never be a single, ‘true’ figure for

how much land have been acquired globally or even in a given country”

L. Cotula 2013

Land Matrix: 50M Ha worldwide over 10 years Reports built on GRAIN data: 56M Ha of

agricultural-based deals Reports built on International Land Coalition

data: 51-63M Ha in Africa 2008-2010

Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013

Large-scale land investments: what is Science saying?

When? Large-scale land acquisition has deep

historical roots

Colonial land acquisitionState-driven land acquisition

Land acquisition of local elitesToday land deals

Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013

Large-scale land investments: what is Science saying?

Where? Sub-Saharan Africa

South and South-East Asia Soviet Eurasia South, Central America & Caribbean

region Domestic land acquisition

Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013

Large-scale land investments: what is Science saying?Who? China & Korea Gulf States & Lybia

More prominently: Western World Regional companies

Local intermediaries

But also Brazil South-East Asian emerging economies

Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013

Large-scale land investments: what is Science saying?Why?

5Fs: Food Feed Fuel (including wood) Fiber Finance

Water grabs

Green GrabsScuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013

Large-scale land investments: what is Science saying?Is it working? High uncertainty about how large-scale land

investments can benefit local communities Evidence is about what did not work

No durable benefits [job] Acquisition is generally an irreversible process Many failures due to poor assessment of

investment proposals by local governments Poor consultation mechanism

Conflict

Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013

What could be the way forward? Develop more inter- and trans-

disciplinary science

Promote crosspollination of academia and practice

Improving Communication tools Engage a broader community

Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013

Thank you, it was my pleasure!

Read: www.simonesala.it Write: simone.sala@gmail.com Tweet: @hereissimone

Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013