View
141
Download
5
Category
Tags:
Preview:
DESCRIPTION
"Reporting Complexity (with Complexity): General Systems Theory, Complexity and Simulation Modeling" Video conference presented to Indiana University-Purdue University students in Public Administration and Journalism March 31, 2010.
Citation preview
"Mass Media and Public Policy"
Reporting Complexity (with Complexity):General Systems Theory, Complexity and
Simulation Modeling
Tom JohnsonInstitute for Analytic Journalism
Santa Fe, New Mexicowww.analyticjournalism.com
t o m @ j t j o h n s o n . c o m
Tom JohnsonInstitute for Analytic Journalism
Santa Fe, New Mexicowww.analyticjournalism.com
t o m @ j t j o h n s o n . c o m
2 Univ. of Indiana-School of Public and Environmental Affairs-March ’10 © J.T.Johnson 2010
Online presentation for…
INDIANA UNIVERSITY - PURDUE UNIVERSITYINDIANAPOLIS
School of Public and Environmental AffairsSchool of Journalism
COURSE: Mass Media & Public AffairsMarch 31, 2010
3 Univ. of Indiana-School of Public and Environmental Affairs-March ’10 © J.T.Johnson 2010
Inst. for Analytic Journalism
www.analyticjournalism.com Convince journos to report the other
50% of the story – the quantitative half
IAJ’s four cournerstones: General Systems Theory Statistics Visual statistics/ data visualization Simulation modeling
4 Univ. of Indiana-School of Public and Environmental Affairs-March ’10 © J.T.Johnson 2010
Topics: Evolution of systems thinking
Hannibal's Army and birthday cakes General Systems Theory Chaos Complexity
Cellular automata - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conway%27s_Game_of_Life
Complex Adaptive Systems Agent-Based Modeling
Applied Complexity/Simulation Modeling
Calculus for Journalism
5 Univ. of Indiana-School of Public and Environmental Affairs-March ’10 © J.T.Johnson 2010
Think of a phenomenon as . . .
. . . an organism (with stages of life, blood, head, and heart)
. . . a factory (with raw material, source of power, bosses, and workers)
. . . a building (with foundation, windows, and façade)
. . . an ecology (with niches, climates, and food chains)
Source: Horwitz, Richard P. http://twist.lib.uiowa.edu/rhorwitz/rootsas.htm ©2000
6 Univ. of Indiana-School of Public and Environmental Affairs-March ’10 © J.T.Johnson 2010
Examples of Systems
Not all are dynamic, but they can be analyzed with similar concepts and tools.
Look for/measure patterns
7 Univ. of Indiana-School of Public and Environmental Affairs-March ’10 © J.T.Johnson 2010
Narrowing the Focus: GST
SYSTEMS: "…things [agents/variables/sub-systems] that collectively behave differently as opposed to their behavior when separated.“
"Studies the organization of phenomena.... Investigates both principles common to all complex entities and the 'models' (often mathematical) which can be used to describe them.“
Resource: Mental Model Musings http://www.outsights.com/systems/welcome.htm
8 Univ. of Indiana-School of Public and Environmental Affairs-March ’10 © J.T.Johnson 2010
Why General Systems Theory?
Learn the structures and their process. When transferring from one discipline to another, much of the learning could be transferred.
When studying a new discipline: simply learn the labels on the structures – and the processes -- in the new discipline.
9 Univ. of Indiana-School of Public and Environmental Affairs-March ’10 © J.T.Johnson 2010
Brief introduction to GST
Attributes of a system….1) A system exists in an environment/context
2) A system has boundaries1) Physical
2) Conceptual
3) Legal: corporate, jurisdiction
4) Geographic
5) Cultural
3) Composed of variables, (elements or agents) that can be defined, or described, separately. Sub-variables. Tree-to-branch-to-leaf-to-cell Scaling or “levels”
10 Univ. of Indiana-School of Public and Environmental Affairs-March ’10 © J.T.Johnson 2010
Attributes of a system….
4) There are relationships between variables1) Horizontal relationships2) Vertical (i.e. hierarchical)
relationships
5) A system has goals, self-defined or with a definition imposed by the system OR outside observer1) Make money2) Provide for group security, happiness,
procreation
11 Univ. of Indiana-School of Public and Environmental Affairs-March ’10 © J.T.Johnson 2010
Brief introduction to GST
5) A system learns from changes in its variables and/or environment1) Feedback loops2) Suggests changes over time in
system state, in variables, in type and degree of relationships
Challenges in GST: 1) Where to enter the system for study2) How measure and tell/show changes?3) How to determine significance of
which changes
12 Univ. of Indiana-School of Public and Environmental Affairs-March ’10 © J.T.Johnson 2010
A newspaper as a system
Editorial
Production
Circulation
Advertising
“Backoffice”
13 Univ. of Indiana-School of Public and Environmental Affairs-March ’10 © J.T.Johnson 2010
A newspaper as a system
Editorial
Local News
Int’l News Business Sports
14 Univ. of Indiana-School of Public and Environmental Affairs-March ’10 © J.T.Johnson 2010
A newspaper variables and sub-systems
Editorial
Local News
Int’l News Business Sports
High SchoolCollegeProfessional
15 Univ. of Indiana-School of Public and Environmental Affairs-March ’10 © J.T.Johnson 2010
System hierarchy and “zooming”
Editorial
Sports
Newspaper
Media
Football
H. S. Football
Higher Concept
Lower Concept
16 Univ. of Indiana-School of Public and Environmental Affairs-March ’10 © J.T.Johnson 2010
Online enterprise Dynamic system model
17 Univ. of Indiana-School of Public and Environmental Affairs-March ’10 © J.T.Johnson 2010
Examples of Systems
Not all are dynamic, but they can be analyzed with similar concepts and tools.
Look for/measure patterns
18 Univ. of Indiana-School of Public and Environmental Affairs-March ’10 © J.T.Johnson 2010
Value of GST
Demands definition/focus on exactly what system are you talking about?
Demands consideration of level of analysis, i.e. “zooming” levels of focus
Demands definition of variables and then the relative importance of those variables
Demands consideration of relationships between variables
19 Univ. of Indiana-School of Public and Environmental Affairs-March ’10 © J.T.Johnson 2010
GST as basis for simulation models
Once system, goals, variables and relationships defined, start to ask “How do we measure the strength of those relationships?”
This is where dynamic simulation models (can) kick in.
20 Univ. of Indiana-School of Public and Environmental Affairs-March ’10 © J.T.Johnson 2010
These activities involve resources and power
Resources: The symbolic and material components a system needs to carry out its tasks.
Examples of resources a system might need or use to maintain itself?
Power: The use of resources by one system in order to gain compliance by another system.
Examples of how a system might use its resources to use its power?
21 Univ. of Indiana-School of Public and Environmental Affairs-March ’10 © J.T.Johnson 2010
Complex Systems
Isle of Manhattan model Stock market Social insect and ant colonies The brain Political parties and communities Social networks
22 Univ. of Indiana-School of Public and Environmental Affairs-March ’10 © J.T.Johnson 2010
Complex System
Typically, same characteristics of General System in initial state
CpxSys: greater than sum of its parts in terms of actions and potentials
CpxSys: variables/agents are coupled in nonlinear manner.
Impossible to replicate dynamic processes
Impossible to predict emergence
23 Univ. of Indiana-School of Public and Environmental Affairs-March ’10 © J.T.Johnson 2010
Other definitions of CAS
Dynamic network of many agents (cells, species, individuals, firms, nations) acting in constantly acting (often in parallel) and reacting to other agents.
Agents are adaptive, i.e. “learn” according to rules and changing environment.
“Systems on the edge of chaos.” Maximum variety and creativity leads to new possibilities. [Emergence]
24 Univ. of Indiana-School of Public and Environmental Affairs-March ’10 © J.T.Johnson 2010
Characteristics of Complex Systems
25 Univ. of Indiana-School of Public and Environmental Affairs-March ’10 © J.T.Johnson 2010
Applying Complexity to telling complex stories
RRAW-P processResearchReportingAnalysisWritingPublish/Produce/Package
Let GST drive your ResearchReportingAnalysis
Let Data InAnalysisInfoOut drive your analysis
DIAIO usually/should reflect change over time, i.e. “dynamic” aspects of change
26 Univ. of Indiana-School of Public and Environmental Affairs-March ’10 © J.T.Johnson 2010
Applied Complexity/Simulation
Emergency mgmt via Simtable
Boat Traffic in Venice
BigPharma R&D portfolio
Subway evacuation simulation
Criminal Justice through courts
27 Univ. of Indiana-School of Public and Environmental Affairs-March ’10 © J.T.Johnson 2010
Criminal Justice System
28 Univ. of Indiana-School of Public and Environmental Affairs-March ’10 © J.T.Johnson 2010
Applied Complexity/Simulation
Emergency mgmt via Simtable
Boat Traffic in Venice
BigPharma R&D portfolio
Subway evacuation simulation
Criminal Justice through courts
Child welfare
All are data-based, not myth-based Potential for real-
time update
Generate analytic statistics
Allow “what if” w/out cost by admin., stakeholders AND public
29 Univ. of Indiana-School of Public and Environmental Affairs-March ’10 © J.T.Johnson 2010
Applied Complexity/Simulation
Downside Initial cost can seem to be high, esp. when
audience doesn’t understand purpose Requires investment to learn (and keep
learning) Requires careful data collection and
updating Requires education for users and public For traditional journalism, not apparent
how to make money
30 Univ. of Indiana-School of Public and Environmental Affairs-March ’10 © J.T.Johnson 2010
Soooooo ?????
Constantly work to apply GST to any phenomena/topic/story
Learn to apply fundamental arithmetic
Learn how to interrogate your data Be constantly alert to what are the
evolving analytic and presentation methods on non-journalism/non-PA disciplines.
"Mass Media and Public Policy"
Reporting Complexity (with Complexity):General Systems Theory, Complexity and
Simulation Modeling
Tom JohnsonInstitute for Analytic Journalism
Santa Fe, New Mexicowww.analyticjournalism.com
t o m @ j t j o h n s o n . c o m
Tom JohnsonInstitute for Analytic Journalism
Santa Fe, New Mexicowww.analyticjournalism.com
t o m @ j t j o h n s o n . c o m
Recommended