Rasetti fondazioneisi 29_06_2015

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Dati: la quinta rivoluzione dell’Information Technology

Mario Rasetti

ISI Foundation – Torino ISI Global Science Foundation – New York

The context: il mondo in cui viviamo

Italy 44.5 50.8 1950 to 1990

Le Città

‣ process & workflow analytics ‣ location-aware services ‣ organizational science ‣ social science & health ‣ infectious disease dynamics

Internet of (Every)thing: nuove interazioni fra persone, oggetti, luoghi

Our world is more and more complex and data-based:

4.7 billion people own a cell phone, every day over 410 billion e-mails and 35 billion SMSs are exchanged, 700 million pictures are uploaded on Facebook. The information created and exchanged yerarly (2014) is 6 zettabyte of data (1 zettabyte = 1021 bytes: the 1250 pages of Tolstoj’s War and Peace would be contained 323 billion times in it, and the whole Library of Congress of Washinton 4 million times) and every year grows 40% (in 3 years we’ll reach a yottabyte, 1024).

A world in which every year 1.4 billion cars circulate, over 2.5 billion people fly on airplanes, the growth of population, urbanization, commercial exchanges, global migrations is more and more entangled with that of technologies, generating one interconnected ‘socio-technical’ system.

Let’s concentrate first on the

Big Data Big Challenge,

that of extracting the large amount of information flowing in and around the complex systems we live with, itself available through huge amounts of data Big Data have a variety of diverse features:

• BD in science (e.g., Hubble, Genoma, CERN) : typically well organized in well built data-bases

• BD in society : allow for a true TOMOGRAPHY of SOCIETY and make possible ‘predictions’ not reasonable before (cf., e.g., H1N1 pandemics, 2009)

or targets/strategies:

BD hardware challenge (HPC: high performance computing); e.g., quantum: a mix of limits & hopes

BD manipulation the greatest computer science challenges: beyond Turing, interaction-based computing, data mining:

extracting value from data

i.e., turning 'Big Data Science' into an 'ICT Big Science’, coupling methods and data with theories and models, endowing ICT with new, more efficient tools to turn

data into information,

information into knowledge,

and eventually

knowledge into wisdom.

as ICT becomes integral part of the fabric of nature and society.

? IT is facing what is referred to as its fifth revolution; the next step after the mainframe era, the PC era, the Internet and Web 1.0 era, the mobile and Web 2.0 era: the era of Big Data.

The true essence of Big Data is Evidence-based Decision Making

www.whitehouse.gov/issues/technology/big-data-review

• Big data is saving lives. […] By collecting and analyzing millions of data points from a neonatal intensive care unit, one study was able to identify factors, like slight changes in body temperature and heart rate, that serve as early warning signs an infection may be taking root […]

• Big data is making the economy work better. […] Utility companies

are starting to use big data to predict periods of peak electric demand, adjusting the grid to be more efficient and potentially averting brown-outs.

• Big data is saving taxpayer dollars. The Centers for Medicare and

Medicaid Services have begun using predictive analytics […] to flag likely instances of reimbursement fraud before claims are paid. […] has already stopped, prevented, or identified $115 million in fraudulent payments.

opportunità

• Big data tools can alter the balance of power between government and citizen. […] government uses of big data also have the potential to chill the exercise of free speech or free association. As more data is collected, analyzed, and stored on both public and private systems, we must be vigilant in ensuring that balance is maintained between government and citizens […]

• Big data tools could lead to discriminatory outcomes. As more

decisions about our commercial and personal lives are determined by algorithms […] we must pay careful attention that big data does not systematically disadvantage certain groups, whether inadvertently or intentionally.

• Big data tools can reveal intimate personal details. […] data

fusion can also lead to the so-called “mosaic effect,” whereby personally identifiable information can be discerned even from ostensibly anonymized data. […]

rischi hi

MacKinsey BD Report (2013)

(USA)

IBM estimate (2014) - worldwide

the big picture

the digital image of the world is tracking the world more and more closely:

use computation to extract patterns and establish causal inferences using tools from data mining, machine learning, statistics

mathematical modeling and forecast happen on a data-rich landscape and are fed by data streams from multiple sources

we can assess our models against reality at unprecedented speed and scale, and feed this back to models

society at large is involved, besides nature

the role of Complexity Science

Bevys of Starlings

Multi-agent – Multi-scale – Emergent effects

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www.gov.uk/government/publications/reducing-obesity-obesity-system-map

complessità

TOPOLOGY-BASED ALGORITHMS

Connection strengths

(shades of gray; 20 brain regions)

Binarization (threshold)

Reordering and modularization

Brain Network

The data space splits into the direct sum of irreps of G. The general ‘covariance matrix’ of a generic machine learning algorithm becomes ‘block-diagonal’: all zeroes are pushed to the upper-right / lower-left corners.

Data Driven Approach

Theory & Models

Mathematics & Foundation of

Complex Systems

Data Science Big Data

Computational Social Science

Collective Phenomena in Physics & Materials Science

Quantum Science &

Complexity

Complexity Science

Computational Epidemiology & Public Health

Citizen Science & Smart Cities

ISI Foundation: research