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DeMatteo Monness Event – Valuing facebookLou Kerner Presentation, March 20 2012
Emergence of The Siloed Internet
Started: September 1993(“Eternal September” –
AOL Connected to The Internet)
1995Amazon Launched
Walmart Entered It’s 50th State
2001Walmart.com launched
Sources: Wikipedia, Walmart
Emergence of The Social Internet
Emergence of The Social Internet
Started: September 2006
Facebook Introduced the Newsfeed
Massive User Rebellion
May 2007
Facebook Opens It’s API
Sources: Wikipedia
Facebook Dominates (Almost) Everywhere
Source: ComScore, Jan. 2012
500% Growth In Japan Since YE2010
Source: Facebook, March 2012
Facebook Tracking to 1 Billion Users
Source: iCrossing, Jan. 2012
Facebook Leads In Engagement Too
Facebook is Dominating Time Spent
Zuckerberg’s Law
The New Media Paradigm
Leading Facebook Brands
Source: FanPageList, March 2012
Facebook’s Frictionless SharingIntroduced at f8 Sept., 2011
Immediate Impact of Frictionless Sharing on Spotify
MAUs
Long Term Impact of Frictionless Sharing on Spotify MAU’s
OMGPOP’s Draw Something
Draw Something Highlights Facebook’s Virality
eCommerce Sites Born of the Siloed Internet
Source: Internet Retailer, Top 25 eCommerce Sites, 2011
eCommerce Sites Born Social
Fab.com Threadless Modcloth Etsy0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
23.0%
20.1%
23.1%
20.9%
25.1%
18.3%17.8%
13.5%Google
Up
stre
am T
raff
ic G
ener
atio
n
Source: Alexa, March 2012
Facebook’s Slowing Revenue Growth
Daily Active User (DAU) Growth Outpacing Ad Growth
Facebook Q4 ‘11 CPC Increase
Source: Nanigans, January 2012
Social Network Usage Is Increasingly Mobile
Source: Pandora S-1, Twitter, Facebook, KPCB
Facebook S-1 Statement
“We had more than 425 million MAUs who used Facebook mobile products in December 2011. We currently do not show ads or directly generate any meaningful revenue from users accessing Facebook through our mobile products, but we believe that we may have potential future monetization opportunities such as the inclusion of sponsored stories in users’ mobile News Feeds.”
EdgeRank Is Facebook’s PageRank
Reach Generator Will Be Big
Facebook Forecast
Facebook Valuation
Facebook Risks
• Monetization of mobile• Platform risk – the majority of Fscebook
log ins could happen on an Android device as soon as 2015
• Government intervention around the wrold due to privacy and/or monopoly concerns
• Nothing is constant but change
Facebook - Additional Upside
Lou Kerner
@loukerner
lou@socialinternetfund.comDisclosure: Lou Kerner owns shares of Facebook
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