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Global Technology Outlook .
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© 2004 IBM CorporationGlobal Technology Outlook - 2004
Global Technology Outlook
By IBM Corp.
© 2004 IBM CorporationGlobal Technology Outlook - 2004
Global Technology Outlook ………..
“I think there is a world marketfor maybe five computers.”
Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
“Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons. ”
Popular Mechanics, 1949
“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home. ” Ken Olsen, founder of DEC, 1977
“640K ought to be enough for anybody. ”
Bill Gates, 1981
“Prediction is difficult, especially about the future”
Yogi Berra
© 2004 IBM CorporationGlobal Technology Outlook - 2004
Business process and technology integration
Systems architecture and design
Enterprise IT Optimization: through autonomic computing, orchestration, virtualization and shared services model
Emerging Technology focus areas
Global Technology Outlook - 2004© 2004 IBM Corporation
ProcessesProcessesInformationInformation
Data FederationInformation Integration
Business ProcessAutomation
Communication andCollaborationPeoplePeople
Por
tal &
Kno
wle
dge
Man
agem
ent
Workflow
Messaging Infrastructure
The Evolution of Technology Will Lead to the Convergence of People, Information and Processes
Global Technology Outlook - 2004© 2004 IBM Corporation
Methods, Models, Tools, Templates and Architecture
Tools Architecture
Methods Templates
Models
linked models of business & IT semantics support methodologies and business-IT alignment
repeatable, scalable, consistent methods
to guide stakeholders through
transformation steps and decisions
templates of solution models support reuse
tools support methodologies
through design and analysis of
transformation models and related artifacts
model-driven components for adaptive process choreography, monitoring & management in a service-oriented architecture
Global Technology Outlook - 2004© 2004 IBM Corporation
Business & IT Convergence
Componentization of businesses into
services
Service Oriented Architecture
Software modeling
Modeling of businesses
PlatformIndependent
Process
PlatformSpecific
StrategyManageManage MonitorMonitor
Business applications will be deployed, monitored and managed through the manipulation of multi-level models
IT Domain
BusinessDomain
DeployDeploy
Accurately and reliably capture and translate business intent into IT solutions (Business / IT fusion)
Rapid deployment of
enterprise apps and resources
Real-time visibility of business
Flexibly transform business
Link
Realize
Transform
KPI’s
Sense
Measure
Global Technology Outlook - 2004© 2004 IBM Corporation
Web Services Accelerates the Move Towards Service-Oriented Architectures
Shar
ed S
ervi
ces
Loosely Coupled
Standards Based
Allows individual software assets to become reusable building blocks
Reduces interdependency between services components
Leverages open standards to represent software assets as services
• XML• SOAP• WSDL• UDDI
Global Technology Outlook - 2004© 2004 IBM Corporation
Industry Implications
Models will become valuable, reusable, competitive assets that Accelerate the deployment of new applications Increase the visibility of enterprise performance Improve the manageability of business operations Increase ROI for the customer
Business componentization will contribute to the growth of the BT and BTO businesses and the emergence of independent process vendors (IPVs)
Business transformation will become more structured and rigorous, shifting from the realm of art to the realm of science
This will require significant cultural change as jobs are redefined, created and eliminated
Business transformation professionals will have to expand their skill sets
© 2004 IBM CorporationGlobal Technology Outlook - 2004
1995 2000 2005 2010 20151
10
100
1000
10000
100000
TeraFlops
Supercomputing Roadmap
Source: ASCI Roadmap www.llnl.gov/asci, IBM
Brain ops/sec: Kurzweil 1999, The Age of Spiritual Machines
Moravec 1998, www.transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm
US Dept. Of Energy ASCI
®*
Chip(2 processors)
Compute Card(2 chips, 2x1x1)
Node Board(32 chips, 4x4x2)
16 Compute Cards
System(64 cabinets, 64x32x32)
Cabinet(32 Node boards, 8x8x16)
2.8/5.6 GF/s4 MB
5.6/11.2 GF/s0.5 GB DDR
90/180 GF/s8 GB DDR
2.9/5.7 TF/s256 GB DDR
180/360 TF/s16 TB DDR
Comparative Brain Computing Power
Computing Power
Global Technology Outlook - 2004© 2004 IBM Corporation
Power is Limiting Microprocessor Frequencies
Moore’s law is continuing with respect to transistor density, although at a reduced pace
Workload demands are highly variable High Speed Interconnects Compound the Power Problem Device Leakage Consumes Power New methods to utilize silicon density scaling will be developed to accommodate
diverse workloads while managing power constraints
Server microprocessors cannot simultaneously utilize all their transistors due to power limitations
Shippable PartsWith Leakage
Minimum Ship Frequency
Leff SlowFast
Nominal
Po
wer
Cooling/Power Limit
Max Freq(No Leakage)
Max Freq(With Leakage)
Power w/Leakage
Nu
mb
er o
f P
arts
Global Technology Outlook - 2004© 2004 IBM Corporation
Source: Competitive Analysis Technical Team (CATT)
IBM PowerPC (2002 Roadmap)10000
Initial Ship Date
Fre
qu
ency
(M
Hz)
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
100
1000
100000
?10000
Microprocessor operating frequencies will increase at half the historical rate
Power dissipation is limiting performance
Future differentiation based on function, not frequency
CMOS Microprocessor Frequency Growth CMOS device performance will continue to improve rapidly, but in new ways
The concept of a scaled technology as we know it will cease to existInnovation will continue to drive performance improvements, but timing will be
harder to predict
High mobilityNew device structuresNew materials innovations
Global Technology Outlook - 2004© 2004 IBM Corporation
Better Performance Without Scaling
Global Technology Outlook - 2004© 2004 IBM Corporation
Industry Implications
Systems performance leadership will be enabled by judiciously balancing performance and power consumption, rather than maintaining historical frequency trends
Innovation in device structures and materials, not scaling, will be the primary driver of semiconductor performance improvements
Integration and optimization over the entire systems stack will be critical to maintaining traditional server performance trends
Power dissipation is limiting microprocessor performance, requiring aggressive power-management techniques and new thermal solutions
© 2004 IBM CorporationGlobal Technology Outlook - 2004
Next generation of computing
Accelerating advances in technology Deeper integration of IT with business systems Emergence of industry ecosystems
Simplify infrastructure
Sense and respond to business changes
Protect privacy Deliver unique value to customers
Help ensure continuity
Improve cost structure
© 2004 IBM CorporationGlobal Technology Outlook - 2004
Challenges in the IT WorldManage complex, heterogeneous environments
Increase resource utilization
Reduce IT costs
Execute operational changes rapidly & flexibly
Manage increasing amounts of risk
© 2004 IBM CorporationGlobal Technology Outlook - 2004
Increase Responsiveness
Adapt to dynamically changing environments
Business Resiliency
Discover, diagnose, and act to prevent disruptions
Operational Efficiency
Tune resources and balance workloads to maximize use of IT resources
Secure Information and Resources
Anticipate, detect, identify, and protect against attacks
Autonomic ComputingComputing model in which the system is self-healing, self-configured, self-protected and self-managed
“Intelligent” open systems that…
Manage complexity
“Know” themselves
Continuously tune themselves
Adapt to unpredictable conditions
Prevent and recover from failures
Provide a safe environment
© 2004 IBM CorporationGlobal Technology Outlook - 2004
Automation Capabilities
Service Levels
Serv
ice
Leve
ls
PolicyDriven
Service Levels
Automate optimization of IT resources with business needs
Automate achievement of service level by transaction
Automate for efficient and secure administration of user identities
Achievement of service levels Address transactional performance with an
end-to-end view
Predictive correlated intrusion management
Central identity and access management
Protection against threats
Proactive optimization of resources
Reduce costs Open warehouse
© 2004 IBM CorporationGlobal Technology Outlook - 2004
Benefits
Business policy drives IT
management
Business agility and resiliency
Benefits
Balanced human/system
interaction
IT agility and resiliency
Benefits
Greater system awareness
Improved productivity
Benefits
Reduced dependency on
deep skills
Faster/better decision making
Evolving to Autonomic Computing
BasicLevel 1
Rely on reports, product and
manual actions to manage IT components
ManagedLevel 2
Management software in place
to provide facilitation and
automation of IT tasks
PredictiveLevel 3
Individual components and
systems management tools
able to analyze changes and recommend
actions
AdaptiveLevel 4
IT components collectively able
to monitor, analyze and take
action with minimal human
intervention
AutonomicLevel 5
IT components collectively and automatically managed by
business rules and policies
Manual Autonomic
© 2004 IBM CorporationGlobal Technology Outlook - 2004
What the Press is Saying
"Autonomic computing: As we head into 2003, perhaps no other phrase is buzzing
as hotly as this one."
"Call it what you will -- self-healing, autonomic or utility computing -- automation will be all the talk...This will be the year that long-term
plans take shape."
"Transactions are where the rubber meets the road. There's undoubtedly real value to be
found at the intersection of grid computing, Web services, and autonomic computing."
© 2004 IBM CorporationGlobal Technology Outlook - 2004
Simplify&
Optimize
Enable
VirtualizedServices
On DemandOperating Environment
Optimize utilization of computing assets using consolidation, traditional resource virtualization and workload management – improve resilience
Transform business designs and processes, and integrate them across the enterprise and beyond – migrate to an open programming model
Increased flexibility, responsiveness; transition from fixed to variable cost baseMigrate to an open service architecture
System and Application Respond to any change, repel
threats, never “offline” Optimize total cost of ownership
The Path to a Virtual Operating Environment
© 2004 IBM CorporationGlobal Technology Outlook - 2004
What is Virtualization? Pools of virtual resources
StorageServers Distributed Network
Partitioning− Dynamic LPARS− Virtual machines− BladesClustering− Parallel Sysplex®− HACMP− Linux clustersWorkload Management− Policy-based− Heterogeneous
SAN volumes− Storage Pools− Centralized managementTotalStorage Virtualization− SAN Block Virtualization− SAN File AggregationTotalStorage Virtualization expanded capabilities− Increase capacity utilization− Manage non-IBM storage
VLANs− Isolate/prioritize traffic on
shared network, 802.1HiperSockets™/ Virtual ethernet− Optimized inter-partition
communications, virtual network
Differentiated services− Prioritize network traffic− Network QOS, IP TOSVendor alliances
GRID− Globus Toolkit− IBM OGSA ToolboxServer allocation for Web application servers− Computation heavy,
parallel applications− Manage multiple
applications across multiple server clusters
ISV Grid middleware− Provide services such as
data services, scheduling
Resource virtualization provides the ability to aggregate pools of resources into a logical view that enables and delivers increased utilization of resources, simplified management and improved availability of those resources and extends access to and the application of resources. These resources can be servers, storage, networks, applications, and distributed systems.
© 2004 IBM CorporationGlobal Technology Outlook - 2004
The next level of Virtualization
Virtualization based on Grid Computing capabilities incorporating Policy-Based Dynamic Provisioning
Expand the Virtualization concept to handle De-Centralized, Distributed and Heterogeneous Resources over a network
Enabled by Open Standards
ExpressDe-Centralized I/T Resources
(I/T infrastructure and
applications) as
OGSA Services
Service = Virtual Resource
© 2004 IBM CorporationGlobal Technology Outlook - 2004
The details behind the interface can change butthe consumer is not impacted from an invocation point of view
The details behind the interface can change butthe consumer is not impacted from an invocation point of view
Virtualization through services model
Order a book.Order a book.
Mechanisms that abstract the functional capability of a servicefrom its real implementation.
Mechanisms that abstract the functional capability of a servicefrom its real implementation.
Consumer is not aware of the details of process and value chain
Consumer is not aware of the details of process and value chain
Provider is able to change at will.Provider is able to change at will.
Consumer is not aware of servers or other resources
Consumer is not aware of servers or other resources
Provider is able to change at will.Provider is able to change at will.
Business ViewBusiness View
Infrastructure ViewInfrastructure View
© 2004 IBM Corporation
Orchestrated ProvisioningSenses WHY and anticipates WHEN
capacity will be required.
Business priorities determine WHERE to acquire and provision resources.
Orchestrated Provisioning
CapacityEngine
Service LevelEngine
DeploymentEngine
Allocation, change and configuration of:
–Middleware, Management Software, Applications, Data, Identities, Security
–Storage, VLANs, VPNs, Switches
–Firewalls, Load Balancers
–OS, CPU Clusters, FirmwareAsset management interface
Key Capabilities
Increase resource utilization
Reduce labor, hardware and software capital costs
Dynamic resource deployment
Heighten service delivery levels
Align business priorities and IT resources
© 2004 IBM Corporation
The Capabilities You’ll Need
Business Flexibility
IT Simplification
Automation/Virtualization • Availability• Security• Optimization• Provisioning• Policy-based Orchestration• Business Service Management• Resource Virtualization of Servers,
Storage, Distributed Systems/Grid and the Network
• Business Modeling • Process Transformation• Application & Information Integration• Access• Collaboration• Business Process Management
Integration
Infrastructure Management
Partners Partners Partners
HorizontalProcess
© 2004 IBM CorporationGlobal Technology Outlook - 2004
Traditional The Internet On Demand
StructuredCalculations
Data ProcessingTransactions
Open StandardsConnectivity
FlexibilitySimplicity
Modular Componentseasily defined and manipulated
Dynamic definition and operations
Final ThoughtsDeepening Integration of IT with Business….. Emerging On Demand Computing Model
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