Global Energy Picture Today - and key trends to 2050

The Global Energy Picture Today

– and key trends to 2050

Dr Andrew W. CoxEnergy Intelligence & Marketing Research

Overview - Global Primary Fuel Sources

Using data from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014 [www.bp.com] – published 16 June 14

Primary Energy – consumption by fuel sources (Mtoe)

The statistics are for calendar years - and are shown in millions of tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) - and rounded to the nearest 0.1%.

Global coal [and natural gas] consumption has shown strong growth post-2000 in China/non-OECD

1990 2000 2010 2013 2013 (%)

Oil 3162.5 3583.7 4040.2 4185.1 32.9

Coal 2213.6 2342.9 3469.1 3826.7 30.1

Natural Gas 1769.5 2177.0 2868.2 3020.4 23.7

Hydro-Electric

489.8 602.4 783.9 855.8 6.7

Nuclear Energy

453.1 584.3 626.2 563.2 4.4

Renewables 28.6 51.8 168.0 279.3 2.2

TOTAL 8118.1 9342.1 11955.6 12730.4 100.0

Global Primary Energy – consumption by main fuel sources

1988-2013(Calendar Years / mtoe)

1 toe (tonne of oil equivalent) equal “approximately”: 42 gigajoules; 40 million btu; 1.5 tonnes of hard coal; 3 tonnes of lignite

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014, page 43

The BP data only comprises commercially traded fuels – and excludes many renewable energy sources.

  Global Fuelwood Consumption – Post-2000 estimates by UN FAO indicate that 1.5-2.0 billion cubic metres of fuelwood are consumed annually (mainly obtained from non-commercial, non-sustainable forests). Over 1 billion people rely to varying degrees on these sources of energy.

Deforestation in Africa

Underlying issues from the [complex] 2014 BP Statistical Review:

• Fossil fuels continue to dominate global energy supply [86.7% of traded primary energy sources in 2013]

• Coal continues to increase its share of primary energy – as does natural gas.

• Renewable energy and other low-carbon primary energy sources [except nuclear power] have continued to grow - but only make up 13.3% of traded global primary fuels.

• Economic growth – particularly in Asia and developing countries – continues to drive further expansion in global energy production and consumption.

During the period to 2050Demographic forecasts indicate that the global human population will increase to well over 9 billion.[Current population is over 7.2 billion]

The populations of global cities and urban areas will see further expansion during the period to 2050.

By 2030 nearly 1 billion people could be living in China’s cities [approx. 1/8th of the world’s population]

Many migrants to cities will use significantly more energy per capita than rural populations [due to changes in employment, lifestyles, etc.].

However, electrification programmes are continuing throughout the developing

countries.

Not all city dwellers will

live in affluent

conditions.

Increasing populations and economic development will mean more people will be able to achieve a more affluent lifestyle - purchasing consumer goods, cars and more energy-using appliances

Global energy consumption [as well as water, food and resource consumption] will increase significantly by 2050.

If low-carbon energy sources don’t supply a far greater percentage of energy demand - and other key measures aren’t adopted – then atmospheric CO2 levels will rise sharply by 2050 accelerating global warming.

Atmospheric CO2 levels reached 400ppm in 2013/14.