Framing the global warming challenge

Steven Howard Johnson

January 2012

Framing the Global Warming Challenge:

A presentation for churches

What I Hope You’ll Remember

• CO2 is up 40% and rising rapidly

• CO2 affects Earth’s ability to cool itself

• Slower Emissions: NOT ENOUGH

• Real Solution: Clean Energy Portfolio

• Church can witness for clean energy

Topic to Examine

• Introducing a BIG Problem

• The Earth’s Natural Cooling System

• An Emissions Reduction Problem?

• Problem Logic, Solution Logic

• How To Solve the Problem

Fossil Fuels are VERY PopularBuildings use

natural gasVehicles use

petroleum

Industry uses natural

gas, oil, and coalElectric utilities use coal and

natural gas

Fossil Fuel Consumption in U.S.

• Coal: 1 Billion Tons Per Year

• Petroleum: 7.5 Billion Barrels/Year

• Natural Gas: 22 Trillion Cubic Feet Per Year

Almost 6 Billion Tonnes Carbon Dioxide

Tonnes? Or Parts Per Million?

• On the ground, governments measure

carbon dioxide emissions in Billions of

Tonnes

• In the atmosphere, scientists measure

stocks of carbon dioxide in Parts Per

Million

For now, let’s use Tonnes, not PPM

• One millionth part CO2 in the atmosphere weighs 7.77 billion tonnes

• So 280 PPM, the norm before the Industrial Revolution, weighed 2,175 billion tonnes

CO2 Rough Rules of Thumb

• If global emissions = 30 billion tonnes/year

• Then:

– 8 billion tonnes are taken up by forests . . .

– 7 billion tonnes are absorbed by the ocean

–15 billion tonnes stay in atmosphere (~2 PPM)

Total CO2 Now: 3,044 Billion Tonnes(up 16.5 Billion Tonnes in 2011)

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

19

58

19

62

19

66

19

70

19

74

19

78

19

82

19

86

19

90

19

94

19

98

20

02

20

06

20

10

Bill

ion

s o

f To

nn

es

Atmospheric CO2

+40%

(Pre-Industrial Norm)

CO2 rise is accelerating

4.5

9.28.1

11.811.3

12.4

9.7

14.4

16.2

14.8

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

1961 -1965

1966 -1970

1971 -1975

1976 -1980

1981 -1985

1986 -1990

1991 -1995

1996 -2000

2001 -2005

2006 -2010

New

CO

2, in

Billio

ns

of

To

nn

es

Annual Increase in Stock of CO2(5 Year Averages)

Takeaway:

• Atmospheric stock of carbon dioxide is up 40% from its pre-industrial norm

• This total is now growing at 7% a decade

• There’s no going back

Topic to Examine

• Introducing a BIG Problem

• The Earth’s Natural Cooling System

• An Emissions Reduction Problem?

• Problem Logic, Solution Logic

• How To Solve the Problem

Emissions are accelerating

The stock of CO2 is growing

Why Do We Care?

The Earth takes in

loads of energy

from the sun . . .

Energy IN: 2.9 Million TWH/Day

ENERGY IN

Visible Light

Why doesn’t the Earth just get hotter and hotter?

Maybe the Earth has its own cooling

system?

Cars cool themselves using radiators and water . . .

People cool themselves by sweating . . .

Dogs cool themselves by panting . . .

How does the Earth cool itself?

By radiating infrared energy back into space . . .

(the Earth’s natural cooling system)

Energy OUT: 2.9 Million TWH/Day

ENERGY IN

Visible Light

ENERGY OUT

Infrared

Infrared cooling helps the Earth maintain a stable

average temperature . . .

. . . unless . . .

. . . New CO2 reduces Energy OUT . . .

ENERGY IN

Visible Light

ENERGY OUT

Infrared

With ENERGY OUT shrinking . . .

. . . the Earth gets warmer

. . . the Earth gets warmer

• How much warmer?

+ 2.0 degrees Celsius per century

+ 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade

One eighteen-thousandth of a degree per

day

Retained infrared warms the Earth

WARMEREARTH

ENERGY IN

Visible Light

ENERGY OUT

Infrared

. . . and because the Earth is warmer, its daily production

of infrared goes up . . .

Warmer Earth = more Energy OUT

ENERGY IN

Visible Light

ENERGY OUT

Infrared

WARMEREARTH

If the stock of CO2 were to

stabilize, the Earth’s

temperature would also

stabilize

However!

Since the stock of CO2 is still

growing, it will intercept

even more infrared . . .

And the Earth will continue to warm

Takeaway:

• By boosting atmospheric CO2

we interfere with the Earth’s natural cooling system . . .

• . . . and Global Warming continues

Interesting . . .

So what kind of problem is this?

Topic to Examine

• Introducing a BIG Problem

• The Earth’s Natural Cooling System

• An Emissions Reduction Problem?

• Problem Logic, Solution Logic

• How To Solve the Problem

If extreme danger begins at 4,000 . . .

. . . maybe we get there by 2070 . . .

. . . or maybe 2090. Does it matter?

In a slower emissions scenario . . .

• We burn the same amount of fossil fuel

• It just takes longer

• No matter when we reach the red zone, the same amount of damage is in store

Capping CO2 is the only safe solution

TAKEAWAY:Slower Emissions is NOT a

solution

Topic to Examine

• Introducing a BIG Problem

• The Earth’s Natural Cooling System

• An Emissions Reduction Problem?

• Problem Logic, Solution Logic

• How To Solve the Problem

First: Recognize the logic chain

Energy Technology Fossil Fuel Consumption

Fossil Fuel Consumption Carbon Dioxide Emissions

CO2 Emissions Total Stock Atmospheric CO2

Total Stock Atmospheric CO2 Global Warming

Global Warming Climate Change

Climate Change Humanitarian Catastrophes

Climate change is different

• Rules of proportionality shape the first part of the logic chain . . .

• But not climate change, which is triggered when thresholds are reached

• Rules of proportionality cannot predict total climate risk

Oceans and marine life also at risk

• As oceans absorb CO2 from the air, much of it turns into carbonic acid

• This puts marine life at risk

– Greater acidity threatens reproduction

– Shellfish may lose access to calcium carbonate

• The greater the CO2 in the oceans, the greater the threat to marine life

Now: Recognize the solution logic

For climate change to halt, global warming must be halted.

For global warming to halt, the stock of CO2 must be capped.

If CO2 is to be capped, CO2 emissions (FF) must be halted.

To halt CO2 emissions, fossil fuel consumption must be halted.

To halt fossil fuel consumption, clean energy must be adopted.

To limit humanitarian tragedies, climate change must be halted.

Takeaway:

• Global warming CAN be halted IF –and only if – we commit ourselves to a clean energy future

Topic to Examine

• Introducing a BIG Problem

• The Earth’s Natural Cooling System

• An Emissions Reduction Problem?

• Problem Logic, Solution Logic

• How To Solve the Problem

Clean Energy? How?

Here’s some good news

• America consumes 56 TWH/Day of energy (terawatt-hours/day)

• America receives 50,000 TWH/Day of ambient sunshine

• Capture only a thousandth and we can power America’s economy

Here’s more good news . . .

• Clean energy will get cheaper and cheaper over time

So What Do We Do?

Five Key Steps

1. Improve Energy Efficiency

2. Adopt Clean Source Technologies

3. Adopt Clean User Technologies

4. Develop Phase-Out Programs

5. Remember How We Got Here

1. Improve Energy Efficiency

• Utilities will promote efficiency if rewarded

• Businesses are losing money by ignoring efficiency

• Tighten auto mileage standards

• Great returns: $1 invested yields $3 in savings

2. Adopt Clean Source Technologies

• Clean Energy Electricity

• Clean Energy Liquid Fuel

• Clean Energy Heat

3. Adopt Clean User Technologies

• Clean energy buildings (homes, offices, stores)

• Clean energy vehicles

– autos, trucks, trains, planes, boats, motorcycles . . .

• Clean energy industry

4. Develop phase-out programs

• Not the fault of fossil fuel employees that their fuels cause global warming

• Develop a forty year phase-out plan

• Provide transition assistance on many fronts

5. Remember how we got here

• We’ll dig ourselves out of this hole the same way we dug ourselves in

–One consumer purchase at a time . . .

–One capital purchase at a time . . .

What Can the Church Say?

What the Church Can Say . . .

• Fossil Fuel Energy is Risky

–Climate Risks

–Humanitarian Risks

–Ocean Risks

What the Church Can Say . . .

• Only one atmosphere

• We are in this together–As human communities across the

planet–As nations–As local communities

• We will solve this together

• Or we will fail together

What the Church Can Say . . .

• This is an worldwide energy

technology problem

• Likely to cause terrible damage

• “Emission reduction” isn’t enough

• Clean Energy Portfolios are essential

everywhere

What we can do . . .

. . . in our homes and churches

• Efficiency audits, efficiency investments

• Buy the wind add-on from your utility

• Better home insulation

• Geothermal assist

• Solar panels

Remember the Solution: Safer technologies Safer future

What I Hope You’ll Remember

• CO2 is up 40% and rising rapidly

• CO2 affects Earth’s ability to cool itself

• Slower Emissions: NOT ENOUGH

• Real Solution: Clean Energy Portfolio

• Church can witness for clean energy

Thank You