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Part four of a five part seminar on technology forecasting, tools, techniques and processes. Part four covers the integrative techniques.
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04/10/23 1
Forecasting Technological ChangeForecasting Technological Change
Session 4: Integrative TechniquesSession 4: Integrative TechniquesPaul A. Schumann, Jr.Paul A. Schumann, Jr.
Glocal Vantage, Inc.Glocal Vantage, Inc.
04/10/23 2
SessionsSessions
• IntroductionIntroduction
• Trend Analysis TechniquesTrend Analysis Techniques
• Expert Opinion TechniquesExpert Opinion Techniques
• Integrative TechniquesIntegrative Techniques
• ClosingClosing
04/10/23 3
SessionsSessions
• IntroductionIntroduction
• Trend Analysis TechniquesTrend Analysis Techniques
• Expert Opinion TechniquesExpert Opinion Techniques
• Integrative TechniquesIntegrative Techniques
• ClosingClosing
04/10/23 4
4. Integrative Techniques4. Integrative Techniques
• SWOTSWOT
• Strategic Market AnalysisStrategic Market Analysis
• Cross Impact AnalysisCross Impact Analysis
• Mathematical ModelsMathematical Models
• Innovation MapInnovation Map
• ScenariosScenarios
• Road MapsRoad Maps
04/10/23 5
4. Integrative Techniques4. Integrative Techniques
• SWOTSWOT
• Strategic Market AnalysisStrategic Market Analysis
• Cross Impact AnalysisCross Impact Analysis
• Mathematical ModelsMathematical Models
• Innovation MapInnovation Map
• ScenariosScenarios
• Road MapsRoad Maps
04/10/23 6
SWOTSWOT
• InternalInternal– StrengthsStrengths– WeaknessesWeaknesses
• ExternalExternal– OpportunitiesOpportunities– ThreatsThreats
Explore Exploit
Avoid Confront
Internal Environment Weaknesses Strengths
Ex
tern
al E
nv
iro
nm
en
t T
hre
ats
O
pp
ort
un
itie
s
Glocal Vantage, Inc.
04/10/23 7
SWOT (cont.)SWOT (cont.)
• Primarily a way to collect and display Primarily a way to collect and display information to make a strategic decisioninformation to make a strategic decision
• Can be used inCan be used in– GroupsGroups– SurveySurvey– InterviewInterview– IndividualIndividual
04/10/23 8
SWOT (cont.)SWOT (cont.)
• ScaleableScaleable
• SimplicitySimplicity
• Low costLow cost
• FlexibilityFlexibility
• CollaborativeCollaborative
• QuicknessQuickness
• IntegratableIntegratable
04/10/23 9
SWOT SuggestionsSWOT Suggestions
• Be comprehensiveBe comprehensive
• Manage group dynamicsManage group dynamics
• Keep the thinking straightKeep the thinking straight
• Fight for clarityFight for clarity
04/10/23 10
4. Integrative Techniques4. Integrative Techniques
• SWOTSWOT
• Strategic Market AnalysisStrategic Market Analysis
• Cross Impact AnalysisCross Impact Analysis
• Mathematical ModelsMathematical Models
• Innovation MapInnovation Map
• ScenariosScenarios
• Road MapsRoad Maps
04/10/23 11
Strategic Market AnalysisStrategic Market Analysis
• A logical way to structure a forecast A logical way to structure a forecast program and integrate the results of program and integrate the results of individual forecastsindividual forecasts
• Provides a way to examine interactionsProvides a way to examine interactions
• Can be used as a tool to facilitate Can be used as a tool to facilitate groups, surveys or interviews; or a tool groups, surveys or interviews; or a tool to manage a forecasting effortto manage a forecasting effort
04/10/23 12
A MarketA Market
CustomersCompetitors Technologies
Sociopolitical
Economic
Demographic
Scientific
Opportunity Threat
04/10/23 13
CustomersCustomers
• PresentPresent
• PotentialPotential
• PossiblePossible
04/10/23 14
CompetitorsCompetitors
• DirectDirect
• IndirectIndirect
• StructuralStructural
04/10/23 15
TechnologiesTechnologies
• EmbeddedEmbedded
• SupportiveSupportive
• EnablingEnabling
04/10/23 16
Customers, Competition & the Future of TechnologyCustomers, Competition & the Future of Technology
• BasicsBasics• Driving forcesDriving forces• Customer needsCustomer needs• Competitive Competitive
responsesresponses• Technological Technological
capabilitiescapabilities
04/10/23 17
Customers, Competition & the Future of TechnologyCustomers, Competition & the Future of Technology
• BasicsBasics• Driving forcesDriving forces• Customer needsCustomer needs• Competitive Competitive
responsesresponses• Technological Technological
capabilitiescapabilities
• Identify and define Identify and define the marketthe market
• Select a time frameSelect a time frame• Identify and Identify and
describe questions describe questions to be answered or to be answered or decisions to be decisions to be mademade
04/10/23 18
Customers, Competition & the Future of TechnologyCustomers, Competition & the Future of Technology
• BasicsBasics• Driving forcesDriving forces• Customer needsCustomer needs• Competitive Competitive
responsesresponses• Technological Technological
capabilitiescapabilities
• Identify and Identify and describe the driving describe the driving forces for changeforces for change
• Look for positive or Look for positive or negative interactionsnegative interactions
04/10/23 19
Driving ForcesDriving Forces
DemographicDemographic
SociopoliticalSociopolitical
ScientificScientific
EconomicEconomic
Demographic
Demographic
Sociopolitical
Sociopolitical
Scientific
Scientific
Economic
Economic
04/10/23 20
Customers, Competition & the Future of TechnologyCustomers, Competition & the Future of Technology
• BasicsBasics• Driving forcesDriving forces• Customer needsCustomer needs• Competitive Competitive
responsesresponses• Technological Technological
capabilitiescapabilities
• Identify and Identify and describe customersdescribe customers
• Determine present Determine present needsneeds
• Forecast future Forecast future needsneeds
04/10/23 21
Customers, Competition & the Future of TechnologyCustomers, Competition & the Future of Technology
• BasicsBasics• Driving forcesDriving forces• Customer needsCustomer needs• Competitive Competitive
responsesresponses• Technological Technological
capabilitiescapabilities
• Identify and Identify and describe describe competitorscompetitors
• Describe present Describe present strategiesstrategies
• Forecast future Forecast future strategiesstrategies
04/10/23 22
Customers, Competition & the Future of TechnologyCustomers, Competition & the Future of Technology
• BasicsBasics• Driving forcesDriving forces• Customer needsCustomer needs• Competitive Competitive
responsesresponses• Technological Technological
capabilitiescapabilities
• Identify and Identify and describe describe technologiestechnologies
• Describer present Describer present capabilitiescapabilities
• Forecast future Forecast future capabilitiescapabilities
04/10/23 23
Customers, Competition & the Future of TechnologyCustomers, Competition & the Future of Technology
• Interaction with Interaction with driving forcesdriving forces
• Interaction with each Interaction with each otherother
• SynthesisSynthesis
04/10/23 24
Customers, Competition & the Future of TechnologyCustomers, Competition & the Future of Technology
• Interaction with Interaction with driving forcesdriving forces
• Interaction with each Interaction with each otherother
• SynthesisSynthesis
• Examine and describe Examine and describe the interactions of the the interactions of the driving forces with driving forces with forecasted customer forecasted customer needs, competitive needs, competitive responses and responses and technological technological capabilitiescapabilities
• Revise forecast as Revise forecast as indicatedindicated
04/10/23 25
Impacts of Driving ForcesImpacts of Driving Forces
DemographicDemographic
SociopoliticalSociopolitical
ScientificScientific
EconomicEconomic
Customer
Customer
NeedsNeeds
Competitive
Competitive
Strategies
Strategies
Technological
Technological
Capabilities
Capabilities
04/10/23 26
Customers, Competition & the Future of TechnologyCustomers, Competition & the Future of Technology
• Interaction with Interaction with driving forcesdriving forces
• Interaction with each Interaction with each otherother
• SynthesisSynthesis
• Examine and describe Examine and describe the interactions among the interactions among forecasted customer forecasted customer needs, competitive needs, competitive responses and responses and technological technological capabilitiescapabilities
• Revise the forecast as Revise the forecast as indicatedindicated
04/10/23 27
Cross ImpactsCross Impacts
CustomerCustomerNeedsNeeds
CompetitiveCompetitiveResponsesResponses
TechnologicalTechnologicalCapabilitiesCapabilities
Customer
Customer
NeedsNeeds
Competitive
Competitive
Strategies
Strategies
Technological
Technological
Capabilities
Capabilities
04/10/23 28
Customers, Competition & the Future of TechnologyCustomers, Competition & the Future of Technology
• Interaction with Interaction with driving forcesdriving forces
• Interaction with each Interaction with each otherother
• SynthesisSynthesis
• Combine the results Combine the results of all of the of all of the forecasts and forecasts and analyses into a analyses into a strategic market strategic market analysisanalysis– Executive summaryExecutive summary– Detail analysisDetail analysis– DataData
04/10/23 29
4. Integrative Techniques4. Integrative Techniques
• SWOTSWOT
• Strategic Market AnalysisStrategic Market Analysis
• Cross Impact AnalysisCross Impact Analysis
• Mathematical ModelsMathematical Models
• Innovation MapInnovation Map
• ScenariosScenarios
• Road MapsRoad Maps
04/10/23 30
Cross Impact AnalysisCross Impact Analysis
• Provides a way to incorporate interacting Provides a way to incorporate interacting forces in a forecastforces in a forecast
• >16 different types in use>16 different types in use• Separate and explicit account is taken of the Separate and explicit account is taken of the
causal connections among a series of causal connections among a series of forecasted events and/or trendsforecasted events and/or trends
• Systematic means of combining forecastsSystematic means of combining forecasts• Interative use of a cross impact matrixInterative use of a cross impact matrix
04/10/23 31
Cross Impact (cont.)Cross Impact (cont.)
• Effective technique for examining the Effective technique for examining the probability that an advance in technology will probability that an advance in technology will be affected by external forcesbe affected by external forces
• Useful for identify key technologies Useful for identify key technologies (technology that has a strong relationship (technology that has a strong relationship with other technologies)with other technologies)
• Qualitative or quantitativeQualitative or quantitative• Time dimension can be added through the Time dimension can be added through the
use of Markov chainsuse of Markov chains
04/10/23 32
Cross Impact MatrixCross Impact Matrix
A B C ... N
A
B
C
... N
If this Event Occurs
Th
e P
rob
abil
ity
of
Th
is
Eve
nt
Bec
om
es
04/10/23 33
Cross Impact ExampleCross Impact Example
The Probability of this Initial If This Event Occurs Final Event Becomes Probability Increased Taxes/Cost Negative Legislation Replacement Technology Market Saturation Probability
Increased Taxes/Cost 0.70 1.00 0.40 0.70 0.51 0.60Negative Legislation 0.40 0.20 1.00 0.38 0.31 0.50Replacement Technology 0.60 0.90 0.72 1.00 0.33 0.51Market Saturation 0.45 0.33 0.35 0.05 1.00 0.51
Fax Product
Source: Porter, et al
04/10/23 34
4. Integrative Techniques4. Integrative Techniques
• SWOTSWOT
• Strategic Market AnalysisStrategic Market Analysis
• Cross Impact AnalysisCross Impact Analysis
• Mathematical ModelsMathematical Models
• Innovation MapInnovation Map
• ScenariosScenarios
• Road MapsRoad Maps
04/10/23 35
Mathematical ModelsMathematical Models
• Usually custom developedUsually custom developed• Application specificApplication specific• Structure and dynamicsStructure and dynamics• Ways to integrate and relate a number of variablesWays to integrate and relate a number of variables
– TechnologyTechnology– CostsCosts– MarketMarket– EconomicsEconomics
• Goal is to be predictiveGoal is to be predictive
04/10/23 36
Mathematical Model ExampleMathematical Model Example
Source: Allan, 1999
04/10/23 37
4. Integrative Techniques4. Integrative Techniques
• SWOTSWOT
• Strategic Market AnalysisStrategic Market Analysis
• Cross Impact AnalysisCross Impact Analysis
• Mathematical ModelsMathematical Models
• Innovation MapInnovation Map
• ScenariosScenarios
• Road MapsRoad Maps
04/10/23 38
Types of InnovationTypes of Innovation
• NatureNature– ProductProduct– ProcessProcess– ProcedureProcedure
• ClassClass– IncrementalIncremental– DistinctiveDistinctive– BreakthroughBreakthrough
04/10/23 39
The S-Curve and InnovationThe S-Curve and Innovation
IncrementalTime
Pro
duct
ivity
Incremental
Incremental
Incremental
Distinctive
Distinctive
Breakthrough
04/10/23 40
Innovation MapInnovation Map
Product
Process
Procedure
Incr
emen
tal
Distin
ctiv
e
Break
thro
ugh
04/10/23 41
Automotive HistoryAutomotive History
• Experimenters & Hobbyists (1820s - 1900s)Experimenters & Hobbyists (1820s - 1900s)• Search & Learn (1900s - 1908)Search & Learn (1900s - 1908)• A Car for Everyone (1908 - 1927)A Car for Everyone (1908 - 1927)• Living Room on Wheels (1920s - 1950s)Living Room on Wheels (1920s - 1950s)• Synthesizing Market Demands (1950s - Synthesizing Market Demands (1950s -
1980s)1980s)• Life Style on Wheels (1980s - 2000s)Life Style on Wheels (1980s - 2000s)
04/10/23 42
Experimenters & HobbyistsExperimenters & Hobbyists
Incremental
Distinctive
Breakthrough
Product
Process
Procedure
04/10/23 43
Search & LearnSearch & Learn
Incremental
Distinctive
Breakthrough
Product
Process
Procedure
04/10/23 44
A Car for EveryoneA Car for Everyone
Incremental
Distinctive
Breakthrough
Product
Process
Procedure
04/10/23 45
Living Room on WheelsLiving Room on Wheels
Incremental
Distinctive
Breakthrough
Product
Process
Procedure
04/10/23 46
Synthesizing Market DemandsSynthesizing Market Demands
Incremental
Distinctive
Breakthrough
Product
Process
Procedure
04/10/23 47
Life Style on WheelsLife Style on Wheels
Incremental
Distinctive
Breakthrough
Product
Process
Procedure
04/10/23 48
Innovation MappingInnovation Mapping
• Way to integrate and display a lot of Way to integrate and display a lot of informationinformation
• Can be predictiveCan be predictive– AnalogyAnalogy– Historical trendsHistorical trends– Opportunity/Threat AnalysisOpportunity/Threat Analysis
04/10/23 49
Forecast ExampleForecast Example
Incr
em
en
tal
Dis
tinct
ive
Bre
akt
hro
ug
h
ProductProcess
Procedure
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
44.5
Relative Strength
Overall
04/10/23 50
4. Integrative Techniques4. Integrative Techniques
• SWOTSWOT
• Strategic Market AnalysisStrategic Market Analysis
• Cross Impact AnalysisCross Impact Analysis
• Mathematical ModelsMathematical Models
• Innovation MapInnovation Map
• ScenariosScenarios
• Road MapsRoad Maps
04/10/23 51
ScenariosScenarios
• Narrative descriptions of possible futuresNarrative descriptions of possible futures– Alternative future characteristics of a technologyAlternative future characteristics of a technology– Alternative environments into which future Alternative environments into which future
technology must evolvetechnology must evolve
• Effective way to integrate and communicateEffective way to integrate and communicate• Useful as stand-alone forecasts if time series Useful as stand-alone forecasts if time series
data, expertise or models are lackingdata, expertise or models are lacking• Normative or projectiveNormative or projective
04/10/23 52
Scenarios (cont.)Scenarios (cont.)
• Full richness of a future can be incorporated Full richness of a future can be incorporated into imaginative descriptionsinto imaginative descriptions
• Can provide rich, complex portraits of Can provide rich, complex portraits of possible futurespossible futures
• Can incorporate a wide range of quantitative Can incorporate a wide range of quantitative and qualitative information produced by other and qualitative information produced by other forecasting techniquesforecasting techniques
• Effective way of communicating forecasts to a Effective way of communicating forecasts to a wide variety of peoplewide variety of people
04/10/23 53
Scenarios (cont.)Scenarios (cont.)
• Strategy development toolStrategy development tool
• Multiple scenarios usually requiredMultiple scenarios usually required– Decision spaceDecision space– DriversDrivers– Minimum of four scenariosMinimum of four scenarios
04/10/23 54
AF 2025 (1995-96)AF 2025 (1995-96)
• Most important driversMost important drivers TeK: differential in the rate of economic growth & TeK: differential in the rate of economic growth &
proliferation of technologyproliferation of technology– World Power Grid: generation, transmission & World Power Grid: generation, transmission &
distribution and control of power, political, distribution and control of power, political, economic and military, throughout the worldeconomic and military, throughout the world
– American World View: US perspective of the American World View: US perspective of the world; its willingness & capability to interact with world; its willingness & capability to interact with the rest of the worldthe rest of the world
Source:www.au.af.mil/au/2025/monographs/E-S/e-s.htm
04/10/23 55
AF 2025 (cont.)AF 2025 (cont.)
04/10/23 56
AF 2025 (cont.)AF 2025 (cont.)
• Global Information Global Information Management SystemManagement System
• Sanctuary BaseSanctuary Base• Global Surveillance, Global Surveillance,
Reconnaissance & Reconnaissance & Targeting SystemTargeting System
• Global Area Strike Global Area Strike SystemSystem
• Uninhabited Combat Air Uninhabited Combat Air VehicleVehicle
• Space-Based High Energy Space-Based High Energy Laser SystemLaser System
• Solar-Powered High Energy Solar-Powered High Energy Laser SystemLaser System
• Uninhabited Reconnaissance Uninhabited Reconnaissance Aerial VehicleAerial Vehicle
• Attack MicrobotsAttack Microbots• Piloted Single-Stage-to-Orbit Piloted Single-Stage-to-Orbit
Transatmospheric VehicleTransatmospheric Vehicle
04/10/23 57
4. Integrative Techniques4. Integrative Techniques
• SWOTSWOT
• Strategic Market AnalysisStrategic Market Analysis
• Cross Impact AnalysisCross Impact Analysis
• Mathematical ModelsMathematical Models
• Innovation MapInnovation Map
• ScenariosScenarios
• Road MapsRoad Maps
04/10/23 58
Road MapsRoad Maps• Projection of major technological elements of Projection of major technological elements of
product design and manufacturing together with product design and manufacturing together with strategies for reaching desirable milestones strategies for reaching desirable milestones efficientlyefficiently
• Roadmaps typically run several technology or Roadmaps typically run several technology or product generations (2 to 10 years)product generations (2 to 10 years)
• A science and technology roadmap provides a A science and technology roadmap provides a consensus view of the future science and consensus view of the future science and technology environment available for decision technology environment available for decision makersmakers
04/10/23 59
Road Maps (cont.)Road Maps (cont.)• Predictive elements are supplemented with Predictive elements are supplemented with
targeted normative elementstargeted normative elements• Goal is to be more actionableGoal is to be more actionable• Avoids objectionable terms like “strategic Avoids objectionable terms like “strategic
planning” and “forecasting”planning” and “forecasting”• Industry associations and consortia have Industry associations and consortia have
embracedembraced• Corporations are using to help direct R&D Corporations are using to help direct R&D
effortsefforts
04/10/23 60
ITRS RoadmapITRS Roadmap
Source: http://public.itrs.net/Files/2001ITRS/Home.htm
04/10/23 61
ITRS Roadmap (cont.)ITRS Roadmap (cont.)
• Front end processesFront end processes• LithographyLithography• InterconnectInterconnect• System driversSystem drivers• DesignDesign• Factory integrationFactory integration• Assembly & Assembly &
packagingpackaging
• Test & test equipmentTest & test equipment• Environment, safety & Environment, safety &
healthhealth• Yield enhancementYield enhancement• MetrologyMetrology• Process integration, Process integration,
devices & structuresdevices & structures• Modeling & simulationModeling & simulation
04/10/23 62
ITRS Roadmap (cont.)ITRS Roadmap (cont.)
04/10/23 63
Integrative TechniquesIntegrative Techniques
• SWOTSWOT• Strategic Market Strategic Market
AnalysisAnalysis• Cross Impact Cross Impact
AnalysisAnalysis• Mathematical Mathematical
ModelsModels• Innovation MapInnovation Map• ScenariosScenarios• Road MapsRoad Maps
Data, InsightData, InsightSurveillance Material
ChangeChangeTrend Analysis
Formal
ApplicationApplication ProductiveExpertOpinion
PurposePurpose FinalIntegrativeTechniques
Potential Future Reality
Glocal Vantage, Inc. 64
Glocal Vantage, Inc.Glocal Vantage, Inc.
• PO Box 161475PO Box 161475
• Austin, TX 78716Austin, TX 78716
• (512) 632-6586(512) 632-6586
• paul.schumann@glocalvantage.compaul.schumann@glocalvantage.com
• www.glocalvantage.com
• http://incollaboration.com
• Twitter: innovant2003Twitter: innovant2003
Paul SchumannPaul Schumann
• Futurist and innovation consultantFuturist and innovation consultant• Application of web 2.0 to market & strategic Application of web 2.0 to market & strategic
intelligence systemsintelligence systems• Web 2.0 tools & technologiesWeb 2.0 tools & technologies• Application of web 2.0 to democratic processesApplication of web 2.0 to democratic processes• Broad perspectives on the futureBroad perspectives on the future• ServicesServices
– Strategic market research & technology forecastingStrategic market research & technology forecasting– Intelligence systems consultingIntelligence systems consulting– Seminars, webinars & presentationsSeminars, webinars & presentations
Glocal Vantage, Inc. 65
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution
license. You may distribute, remix, tweak, and build upon this work,
even commercially, as long as you credit me for the original creation as Paul Schumann, Glocal Vantage
Inc, www.glocalvantage.com.
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