Feeding the World in 2050: Trade-offs, synergies and tough choices for the livestock sector
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Presented by Jimmy Smith, ILRI Director General, at the 22nd International Grassland Congress, Sydney, Australia, 15−19 September 2013
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- 1. Feeding the World in 2050 Trade-offs, synergies and tough
choices for the livestock sector Jimmy Smith, ILRI Director General
22nd International Grassland Congress 1519 September 2013, Sydney,
Australia
- 2. Key messages 3 Addressing partial truths and hard trade-offs
in the livestock sector will open opportunities 1 Well need lots
more food grown much more sustainably over the next 4 decades 2
Roles of smallholders /livestock keepers in food security
underestimated
- 3. We need lots more food, produced much more sustainably
1
- 4. By 2050 well need huge amounts of cereals, dairy and meat .
. . 1bn tonnes more cereals to 2050 1bn tonnes dairy each year 460m
tonnes meat each year
- 5. The world will require 1 billion tonnes of additional cereal
grains to 2050 to meet food and feed demands Additional Grains 1048
million tonnes more to 2050 human consumption 458 million MT
Livestock 430 million MT Monogastrics mostly biofuels 160 million
MT (IAASTD 2009)
- 6. Grown in more sustainable ways . . .
- 7. On the same amount of land . . .
- 8. And in face of big changes - A hotter, often drier, more
variable, more unpredictable climate - More stringent food quality
and safety standards - Widening gaps between rich and poor -
Increasing threats of animal-to-human diseases - Increasing
urbanization
- 9. In brief, we need food systems that are: profitable
efficient safe nutritious equitable green For all
- 10. Roles of smallholders / livestock keepers in global food
security underestimated 2
- 11. Food insecurity and undernutrition remain persistent
Source: Frank Rijsberman/ CGIAR Consortium
- 12. 4 of 5 highest value global commodities are livestock
- 13. Per capita % animal-source foods in daily diets Source:
FAO, 2012 using 2005 data
- 14. Per capita global kilocalorie availability from edible
animal products Source: Herrero et al (PNAS, in press)
- 15. Nutritional divides among 7 billion people today
- 16. Livestock demand is highest in developing countries 0 20 40
60 80 100 120 Developing Countries Developed Countries Meat Milk
Eggs Percentage increase 20002040 Source: IFPRI-ILRI IMPACT model
results
- 17. Developing countries lead in global food production Source:
Herrero et al. 2009 Most global food comes from crop- and-livestock
smallholders in developing countries
- 18. Smallholder livestock keepers are competitive More than 70%
of milk in India and 85% of milk in Kenya is produced by
small-scale livestock keepers
- 19. Growth scenarios for the livestock sector Strong growth
Fragile growth High growth with externalities
- 20. Addressing partial truths / hard trade-offs in livestock
sector opens big opportunities 3
- 21. Food security is about staple cereals Food to many people
means staple cereals (corn, rice, wheat) Grains, as well as tubers
(potatoes, yams, cassava) and pulses (dried legumes), do dominate
diets of the poor They are relatively cheap and easy to store
- 22. But . . . Animal-source foods help meet global nutritional
& food needs Milk, meat, eggs provide protein, energy,
micronutrients Livestock livelihoods are means to obtain: - Manure
for soil fertility - Traction for cropping - Regular incomes -
Employment for 1.3b
- 23. Livestock compete with human food Half of the worlds grain
is used for animal feed Feed crops are grown on 0.5 billion ha As
much as 70% of the worlds agricultural land is related to
livestock
- 24. But . . . Grazing systems, which comprise 1/3 of the Earths
surface, produce meat and milk from grass and other inedible
materials 70% of livestock diets on mixed farms are stover and
other wastes / by-products of crop production
- 25. Importance of grazed biomass for livestock Grass represents
50% of the biomass consumed by livestock Herrero et al PNAS (in
press)
- 26. Meat and milk are bad for your health More than 1 billion
people are overweight and at risk from associated cancers, diabetes
and cardiovascular disease
- 27. But . . . 1 billion people are undernourished Consumption
of even small amounts of animal-source foods: - combats
undernutrition - improves cognitive development - increases
physical growth and activity
- 28. Livestock cause climate change Livestock contribute 1218%
of global GHGs Livestock emit methane, the most potent GHG The
developing world contributes 75% of global ruminant non-CO2
emissions: - 61% from mixed systems - 12% from grazing
- 29. But . . . Huge variations exist in GHG emissions levels
Developing countries have as yet untapped potential to mitigate GHG
emissions: - Through improved efficiencies (e.g., better feeds
& feeding systems) - Through carbon sequestration on well-
managed rangelands
- 30. Global greenhouse gas efficiency per kilogram of animal
protein produced Large livestock production inefficiencies in the
developing world present an opportunity Herrero et al PNAS (in
press)
- 31. Livestock production uses too much water One-third of all
agricultural water is used by the livestock sector: - 90% to grow
feeds - 10% for livestock drinking
- 32. But . . . Developing countries can greatly improve
livestock water productivity in production of milk and meat: - By
three-fold through combinations of improved feed, water and animal
management methods - By 45% through better management of
rangelands
- 33. Livestock production degrades lands 65% of deforestation in
the Amazon is caused by livestock- related activities: - 600,000 ha
are deforested each year for planting crops that will feed
livestock
- 34. But . . . Rangelands, which cover up to 40% of the Earths
surface, comprise a vast carbon sink: - With moderate livestock
grazing and good management, Africas rangelands alone could
sequester 8.6 million tonnes of carbon each year
- 35. Key messages 3 Addressing partial truths and hard
trade-offs in the livestock sector will open opportunities 1 Well
need lots more food grown much more sustainably over the next 4
decades 2 Roles of smallholders /livestock keepers in food security
underestimated
- 36. Last words The developing worlds livestock sector is
diverse, changing, growing This presents opportunities for
environmental harm and other ills It also offers us opportunities
perhaps our biggest opportunities for influencing animal
agriculture for the benefit of all
- 37. The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are
free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to
ILRI. better lives through livestock ilri.org