E-Bird and Climate Change distribution and abundance models, John Alexander

E-Bird and Climate Change Distribution and Abundance

ModelsPartners in Flight Tools for

Wildlife Conservation PlanningJohn Alexander, Klamath Bird ObservatoryKen Rosenberg, Cornell Lab of OrnithologyGeoff Geupel, PRBO Conservation ScienceConnect, Collaborate, and

Conserve in an Era of Changing Landscapes: An Interactive Training on

State Wildlife Action Plans4-6 June 2013

National Conservation Training Center

Avian Knowledge AllianceCollecting,

Caretaking, and Communicating

Avian Knowledge

(Stephens et al. 2009, PIF Proceedings)

UniqueCapacities and Roles of NGOs

AvianKnowledge

Network

Bird Conservation Science Applied

Multi-speciesAssess conservation needsSet measurable objectivesDesign managementMeasuring effectiveness

Science-based tools• Species assessment database• Standard monitoring techniques• Conservation plans• Conservation design process

(Alexander 2011, PhD Dissertation; Stephens et al. 2011, USFWS BTP)

Avian Knowledge Network

Nation's first assessment of the distribution of birds on public lands and waters

The State of the Birds 2011 Public Lands and Waters

Who Contributes to eBird

More than…

100 million observations

1 million locations

93 thousand contributors

7.6 million field hours

www.eBird.org

Stewardship Responsibilities for Birds

Stewardship Responsibilities for Birds

Stewardship Responsibilities for Birds

Regional Conservation Plans

Focal Species

(Altman and Alexander 2012; Alexander et al. 2007, FEM; Chase and Geupel 2005, PIF Proceedings)

Habitat attributes of healthy functioning ecosystem

Conservation Objectives

(North American Bird Conservation Initiative 2010)

Conservation priorities maps• Climate adaptation strategies

Important environmental factors• Developed specific planning

and management actions

Maps of poorly sampled environmental space• Effective monitoring

Detailed models• Bird distribution/abundance,

their environment, and climate

Results publicly accessible• Decision Support System for

visualizing climate scenarios• Downloadable GIS layers

NPLCC Project Goals

Modeling changes in bird distribution and abundance

White-breasted Nuthatch

(c) Peter LaTourrette

Bird Conservation Hotspots

Coniferspecies

Grasslandspecies

Oak woodlandspecies

Riparian species

Willamette Synthesis Update: Setting conservation priorities for grassland birds in the

Willamette Valley

• Future densities for 3 species

• Predictive maps were included as “targets” in conjunction with current distributions

• Determine optimal areas for conservation

Oregon Strategy: Key Conservation Issues

Grasslands•Altered fire regimes:

o Lincoln Sparrow – wet meadow

•Invasive species:o Western Meadowlark –

large grassland patcheso Oregon Vesper Sparrow –

scattered bunchgrasso Grasshopper Sparrow –

moderate grass height with little to no bare ground

Proposed Application: Natural Resource Management Planning

State Wildlife Action Plan Revisions (Climate)

National Forest Plan Revisions

BLM Western Oregon Resource Management Plan

USFWS Refuge Comprehensive Conservation Planning

NRCS and USWFS Partners Private Lands Prioritizations

Questions?Discussion

John Alexander, jda@KlamathBird.org

Ken Rosenberg, kvr2@cornell.edu

Geoff Geupel, ggeupel@prbo.org