Drupalcon New Orleans 2016 - The art of #NoEstimates for optimizing predictability and profitability...

The art of #NoEstimates and optimizing predictability and profitability of Drupal projects

Piyush Poddar

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Estimations

What is an Estimation?

What is an Estimation?

What is a good estimate?

By definition, a good estimate is within 25% of the actual result 75% of the time.

(Conte, Dunsmore, and Shen 1986)

Industry Statistics

Adapted from Standish Group’s Chaos report 2015.

The Modern Resolution ( OnTime, OnBudget, with a satisfactory result) of all software projects from FY2011 - 2015 within the new CHAOS database.

Industry Statistics

Are estimates reliable?

What’s wrong with Estimations?

What’s wrong with Estimations?

Essential Complication

Apparent complications.How hard a problem is on its own

Accidental complication

Complications that creep in because :- We suck at our jobs- Organisational structures- How we code etc..

What’s wrong with Estimations?

Getting better at estimations or ?

Analogy-based estimation ANGEL, Weighted Micro Function PointsWBS-based (bottom up) estimation

Project management software, company specific activity templates

Parametric models COCOMO, SLIM, SEER-SEM, TruePlanning for SoftwareSize-based estimation models Function Point Analysis, Use Case Analysis, SSU (Software Size Unit), Story

points-based estimation in Agile software developmentGroup estimation Planning Poker, Wideband Delphi

Mechanical combination Average of an analogy-based and a Work breakdown structure-based effort estimate

Judgmental combination Expert judgment based on estimates from a parametric model and group estimation.

Source : Wikipedia

#NoEstimates

#NoEstimates Principals

Vasco Duarte’s #NoEstimates Approach

Through put over Story Points

#NoEstimates Approach

#NoEstimates Approach

#NoEstimates Approach

#NoEstimates Approach

#NoEstimates

#NoEstimates

#NoEstimates

#NoEstimates

#NoEstimates

#NoEstimates

#NoEstimates Success Stories

#NoEstimates Movement

The #NoEstimates Leaders & Evangelists

#NoEstimates Alternate Views

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No Estimates Book

http://noestimatesbook.com/

Takeaways

Questions?

So How Was It? - Tell Us What You Think

Thanks!