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Velocity is one of the most common metrics used-and one of the most commonly misused-on agile projects. Velocity is simply a measurement of speed in a given direction-the rate at which a team is delivering toward a product release. As with a vehicle en route to a particular destination, increasing the speed may appear to ensure a timely arrival. However, that assumption is dangerous because it ignores the risks with higher speeds. And while it’s easy to increase a vehicle’s speed, where exactly is the accelerator on a software team? Michael “Doc" Norton walks us through the Hawthorne Effect and Goodhart’s Law to explain why setting goals for velocity can actually hurt a project's chances. Take a look at what can negatively impact velocity, ways to stabilize fluctuating velocity, and methods to improve velocity without the risks. Leave with a toolkit of additional metrics that, coupled with velocity, give a better view of the project's overall health.
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Velocity Is NOT the Goal
Michael “Doc” Norton :: Groupon :: @DocOnDev
Agile Metrics
Velocity Is NOT the GoalAgile Metrics
Doc Norton!Global Director of Engineering Culture!doc@groupon.com | @DocOnDev
Velocity Is NOT the Goal
Michael “Doc” Norton :: Groupon :: @DocOnDev
Agile Metrics
Velocity Is NOT the Goal
Velocity
Velocity
What’s Velocity?
Work Units / Time
Lagging Indicator
Measure of a Complex System
Lagging Indicator for a Complex System
A Tale of Two
Velocities
A
10, 11, 9, 10
B
7, 14, 6, 10
Disclaimer
A
10, 11, 9, 10 Yesterday’s Weather: 10
B
7, 14, 6, 10 Yesterday’s Weather: 10
A
10, 11, 9, 10 Yesterday’s Weather: 10 Rolling Average: 10
B
7, 14, 6, 10 Yesterday’s Weather: 10 Rolling Average: 10
A
10, 11, 9, 10 Yesterday’s Weather: 10 Rolling Average: 10 Std. Deviation: 0.7
B
7, 14, 6, 10 Yesterday’s Weather: 10 Rolling Average: 10 Std. Deviation: 3.1
A
10, 11, 9, 10 Yesterday’s Weather: 10 Rolling Average: 10 Std. Deviation: 0.7 Next: 9.3-10.7
B
7, 14, 6, 10 Yesterday’s Weather: 10 Rolling Average: 10 Std. Deviation: 3.1 Next: 6.9-13.1
The Need for Speed
The Hawthorn Effect
That which is measured, will improve
That which is measured, will improve ... at a cost
Goodhart’s Law
When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a
good measure
Perverse Incentives
... an unintended result, contrary to interests of the
incentive makers
Dr. Deming
“What matters is not setting quantitative goals but fixing the method by which those goals are attained”
What causes variable Velocity?
Time Poorly Spent
Dependency on Other Teams
Poor Story Composition
Too Much Work In Progress
Scatter Diagrams
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
0 2 4 6 8
Scatter DiagramsAuto Prices by Year
0
12.5
25
37.5
50
0 25 50 75 100
Scatter DiagramsVelocity by Complexity
0
12.5
25
37.5
50
0 10000 20000 30000 40000
Scatter DiagramsVelocity by Value
0
12.5
25
37.5
50
0 22.5 45 67.5 90
Scatter DiagramsVelocity by Coverage
“Friedman’s Thermostat”
Correlation is not causation
Correlation is not causation but it sure is a hint
Cumulative Flow Diagrams
Backlog
Cumulative Flow Diagram
0
5
10
15
20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Velocity Chart
Same Different Perspective
Team &
Data
CFD
0
25
50
75
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Deployed Ready for Approval In Testing In Progress Ready To Start
Measure Many Things
Measure Many Things
0
4
8
12
16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Velocity
Measure Many Things
0
12.5
25
37.5
50
0
4
8
12
16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Velocity Quality
Measure Many Things
0
12.5
25
37.5
50
0
4
8
12
16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Velocity Quality Avg. Hours
Measure Many Things
0
12.5
25
37.5
50
0
4
8
12
16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Velocity Quality Avg. Hours Team Joy
Real World Examples
Application Performance
Velocity w/Std. Deviation
Burn w/Std. Deviation
Cumulative Flow
Team Joy
Department Joy
One Last Thing
Metrics are not for
Managers
Metrics are for Teams
Velocity Is NOT the GoalAgile Metrics
Doc Norton!Global Director of Engineering Culture!doc@groupon.com | @DocOnDev
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