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Prof. Joern Fischer
Email: jfischer@leuphana.de Blog: http://ideas4sustainability.wordpress.com/ Twitter: @ideas4sust
Integration by Place, Case and Process Landscape Sustainability Science in Transylvania (Romania)
Outline of today’s talk “Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of
the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” World Commission on Environment and Sustainable Development 1987
Why we need sustainability science Why focus on the landscape scale
Case study in Transylvania Findings from five years of research on biodiversity, social change,
and the interrelationship between the two Future directions
Sustainability science Normative and problem-driven: “sustainability is good” Interested in coupled human-environment systems
Recognises interactions across scales (space and time) Characterised by:
Interdisciplinarity: the merging of multiple disciplines Transdisciplinarity: the integration non-research actors
An evolving “arena” of science
e.g. Kates et al. 2001, Science
Why focus on the landscape scale? Landscapes are meaningful both socially and ecologically
“community” ≈ “landscape”
Larger scales (e.g. “nations”) tend to aggregate important information e.g. GDP masks regional differences in wealth e.g. number of red-listed species might be all in one part of the country, or distributed throughout it
Smaller scales (e.g. “patches” or “households”) are highly idiosyncratic Patterns only become apparent when they are aggregated
Integration by place, case, and process 1. Choosing the place worth studying (problem-inspired)
2. Defining study cases/units, for all disciplines = here, villages
3. Establishing flexible processes for
ongoing integration: - Emphasis on small-team work - Frequent, informal communication - Shared offices - Scenario planning workshops &
other stakeholder activities
Sherren et al., Landscape Ecology; Fischer et al. Basic and Applied Ecology
The place: Transylvania Four ethnic groups:
Saxons, now Romanians, Hungarians, Roma
Post World War II: Communism and collectivization of land Collapse of Communism (1989) Restitution of small parcels of land
Accession to the EU in 2007 Currently, a system in transition
Our work in Transylvania, Romania Overall goal:
to understand social-ecological changes in the region, and help identify avenues for sustainable development
Focus on:
Theme Methods Biodiversity and ecosystem services Field surveys, mapping of ES
bundles Preferences and attitudes of local people
Photo-based Q method, interviews on human-carnivore conflicts
Governance, barriers to adaptation and transformation
Policy analysis, stakeholder interviews
Equity and justice (ecosystem services)
Group interviews
Integration (b/w disciplines and with stakeholders)
Scenario planning, mapping, communication activities
Largely peaceful coexistence over centuries stems from: (1) large, connected forest patches, (2) traditional shepherding, and (3) high tolerance towards occasional conflicts
Dorresteijn et al., Landscape Ecology, Ambio
Coexistence of people and bears
Trophic interactions in the forest
Humans have an overwhelming
effects on structuring the ecosystem
But carnivores – bear and wolf – are also important
Dorresteijn et al., Proc. Roy. Soc.
Goal and overview of activities Overall goal:
to understand social-ecological changes in the region, and identify avenues for sustainable development
Focus on:
Land use and plant diversity
Loos et al., Agr. Ecosys. Env.
Hay meadows But also semi-natural
strips in arable land
Loos et al., PLoS One, Landscape Ecology
Butterflies Rich butterfly diversity:
112 species Different movement
patterns in different kinds of landscapes Further intensification
will disrupt the movements of already threatened species
Bird diversity
Landscapes with woody vegetation and open areas are needed 20
small intermediate landscape
Dorresteijn et al., in review
The Corncrake required: • High land cover
diversity • Remote, wet, and flat
areas
Current situation
11% Decrease land cover diversity
35% Decrease land cover diversity
33% Decrease in habitat
66% Decrease in habitat
Birds: e.g. the Corncrake
21 Dorresteijn et al., Landscape Ecology
The Corncrake required: • High land cover
diversity • Remote, wet, and flat
areas
Current situation
11% Decrease land cover diversity
35% Decrease land cover diversity
33% Decrease in habitat
66% Decrease in habitat
Birds: e.g. the Corncrake
22 Dorresteijn et al., Landscape Ecology
The Corncrake required: • High land cover
diversity • Remote, wet, and flat
areas
Current situation
11% Decrease land cover diversity
35% Decrease land cover diversity
33% Decrease in habitat
66% Decrease in habitat
Birds: e.g. the Corncrake
23 Dorresteijn et al., Landscape Ecology
What about the social side?
Biodiversity is very rich And it is associated with traditional land uses
… but … How do people benefit from nature? What do people want from the landscape? How is landscape change being governed? How will it play out in different parts of the study area?
Healthy soils Clean water
Firewood
Most highly valued:
Hartel et al., Ecology & Society
People’s appreciation of ecosystem services
Goal and overview of activities Overall goal:
to understand social-ecological changes in the region, and identify avenues for sustainable development
Focus on:
Milcu et al., Regional Environmental Change
Winners: Large farmers, officials, wealthy people Losers: smallholder farmers, poor people
Forests, pastures & arable land =>
Milcu et al., Land Use Policy
Contested landscape preferences
Different groups of people want different things from the landscape: tradition, modernisation, tourism, …
Milcu et al., Land Use Policy
Contested landscape preferences
Prosperity and wealth Balance and tradition
Governance Low levels of human, social, infrastructure and financial capital pose
barriers to sustainable development Natural and cultural capital, however, provide a possible foundation
Hence need to ensure they are not also degraded!
Mikulcak et al., Land Use Policy
Governance Mismatch between rural realities and EU policies Existing subsidies are difficult to access Can undermine traditional governance and value systems (e.g.
common pastures)
Mikulcak et al., Environmental Conservation
Regional dynamics
Local condi0ons
Social-‐ecological iner0a
Regional dynamics
Local condi0ons
Scenario 3
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 4
Scenario 3
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 4
Social-‐ecological iner0a
Integra)
on
Inpu
t
2 1
3
4
5
Hanspach et al., Ecology & Society
Regional dynamics
Local condi0ons
Social-‐ecological iner0a
Regional dynamics
Local condi0ons
Scenario 3
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 4
Scenario 3
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 4
Social-‐ecological iner0a
Integra)
on
Inpu
t
2 1
3
4
5
Hanspach et al., Ecology & Society
Spatially explicit quantification of local conditions 1. Natural capital 2. Socio-demographic factors 3. Others: Village isolation, village size, terrain ruggedness
1. and 2. assessed for subset of 30 villages, then generalized 3. for all villages in study area
Regional dynamics
Local condi0ons
Social-‐ecological iner0a
Regional dynamics
Local condi0ons
Scenario 3
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 4
Scenario 3
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 4
Social-‐ecological iner0a
Integra)
on
Inpu
t
2 1
3
4
5
Regional dynamics
Local condi0ons
Social-‐ecological iner0a
Regional dynamics
Local condi0ons
Scenario 3
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 4
Scenario 3
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 4
Social-‐ecological iner0a
Integra)
on
Inpu
t
2 1
3
4
5
Workshops with 17 organizations and key individuals (nature conservation, forestry, agriculture, tourism, social organisations, churches...) What are the main changes in the past, present and the future? What are the drivers? Development of a consensus systems diagram for the study area
Participatory assessment of regional dynamics
Influenced by EU policy, global markets, national institutions and local leaders
Profitability ofsmall scale
farming
Amount ofpoverty
Amount ofconflicts
Social capital
Quality ofeducation
Number ofpeople leaving
the village
Level ofcorruption
Tourismdevelopment
+
-+
-
-
-
- -
Maintainance oftraditions
+
Emigration ofSaxons
-
Amount of landsold to foreignland owners
Amount of intensively farmed land( conventional or organic)
-
-
+Amount ofabandoned
land
- +
Seeking short-termprofiteering
Amount of forestexploitation
+
Modern lifestyle
-
-
Aggregatelocal
economy
+
-
Maintainance anddevelopment ofinfrastructure
+
+
-
-
+
+
Farmland biodiversity( cultural, regulating and
supporting ecosystemservices)- -
Forest biodiversty( cultural, regulating and
supporting ecosystemservices)
-
R
R
Note: stakeholders reported that the variables in white boxes systematically differed between villages
Regional dynamics
Local condi0ons
Social-‐ecological iner0a
Regional dynamics
Local condi0ons
Scenario 3
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 4
Scenario 3
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 4
Social-‐ecological iner0a
Integra)
on
Inpu
t
2 1
3
4
5
Regional dynamics
Local condi0ons
Social-‐ecological iner0a
Regional dynamics
Local condi0ons
Scenario 3
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 4
Scenario 3
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 4
Social-‐ecological iner0a
Integra)
on
Inpu
t
2 1
3
4
5
An example of “system inertia”: local economy
• based on subjective ranking of local experts • includes only rankings that were consistent
among multiple stakeholders
Regional dynamics
Local condi0ons
Social-‐ecological iner0a
Regional dynamics
Local condi0ons
Scenario 3
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 4
Scenario 3
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 4
Social-‐ecological iner0a
Integra)
on
Inpu
t
2 1
3
4
5
Regional dynamics
Local condi0ons
Social-‐ecological iner0a
Regional dynamics
Local condi0ons
Scenario 3
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 4
Scenario 3
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 4
Social-‐ecological iner0a
Integra)
on
Inpu
t
2 1
3
4
5
Scenario planning In our workshops, we also asked about drivers of change and
uncertainties in those drivers
Pro-
envir
onm
enta
l nat
iona
l and
supr
anat
iona
l pol
icy em
phas
is
Pro-
econ
omy n
atio
nal a
nd su
pran
atio
nal p
olicy
emph
asis
Low ability of locals to capitalize on opportunities
High ability of locals to capitalize on opportunities
Pro-
envir
onm
enta
l nat
iona
l and
supr
anat
iona
l pol
icy em
phas
is
Pro-
econ
omy n
atio
nal a
nd su
pran
atio
nal p
olicy
emph
asis
Low ability of locals to capitalize on opportunities
High ability of locals to capitalize on opportunities
Pro-
envir
onm
enta
l nat
iona
l and
supr
anat
iona
l pol
icy em
phas
is
Pro-
econ
omy n
atio
nal a
nd su
pran
atio
nal p
olicy
emph
asis
Low ability of locals to capitalize on opportunities
High ability of locals to capitalize on opportunities
Balance brings beauty
Missed opportunity
Our land – their wealth
Prosperity through growth
Pro-
envir
onm
enta
l nat
iona
l and
supr
anat
iona
l pol
icy em
phas
is
Pro-
econ
omy n
atio
nal a
nd su
pran
atio
nal p
olicy
emph
asis
Low ability of locals to capitalize on opportunities
High ability of locals to capitalize on opportunities
Balance brings beauty
Organic farming and ecotourism Diverse sources of income
High social capital Maintainance of traditions
Missed opportunity Few organic farms by foreigners
Abandonment in many areas Locals poor or leave the area
Low social capital
Our land – their wealth
Land grabbing by foreigners Intensification and exploitation
Locals leave or are poor Low social capital and many conflicts
Prosperity through growth
“Western European” development Conventional intensification
Economic and social improvements Deterioration of natural capital
Scenario planning Each scenario has been turned into a storyline Artwork is used to illustrate each scenario
For local communication, we also
disseminated scenarios as a booklet in Romanian and Hungarian distributed postcards showing paintings of the scenarios complemented the narrative with fictional personalised accounts of each alternative future
Regional dynamics
Local condi0ons
Social-‐ecological iner0a
Regional dynamics
Local condi0ons
Scenario 3
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 4
Scenario 3
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 4
Social-‐ecological iner0a
Integra)
on
Inpu
t
2 1
3
4
5
Regional dynamics
Local condi0ons
Social-‐ecological iner0a
Regional dynamics
Local condi0ons
Scenario 3
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 4
Scenario 3
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 4
Social-‐ecological iner0a
Integra)
on
Inpu
t
2 1
3
4
5
Amplification of inertia under different scenarios
Intensification Abandonment Forest exploitation
Tourism Local economy
Social capital
Emigration Role of foreigners
Prosperity through growth
Our land, their wealth
Balance brings beauty
Missed opportunity
Amplification of inertia under different scenarios
Intensification Abandonment Forest exploitation
Tourism Local economy
Social capital
Emigration Role of foreigners
Prosperity through growth +
Our land, their wealth --
Balance brings beauty ++
Missed opportunity -
Amplification of inertia under different scenarios
Intensification Abandonment Forest exploitation
Tourism Local economy
Social capital
Emigration Role of foreigners
Prosperity through growth +++ -- ++ + +++ + +
Our land, their wealth +++ + +++ -- - +++ +++
Balance brings beauty ++ - - ++ + +++ --
Missed opportunity + ++ + - - +++ +
Development risks and opportunities
Intensi-fication
Abandon-ment
Forest exploi-tation
Tourism Local eco-
nomy
Social capital
Emigra-tion
Role of foreig-ners
Prosperity through growth
Our land, their wealth
Balance brings beauty
Missed opportunity
Integration & outreach
An outreach tour through the villages 15 posters exhibited at ~ 10 venues for several weeks each Open-access books in local languages Thousands of postcards depicting four scenarios Websites, blog posts, scientific articles
Working hypotheses for traditional rural landscapes undergoing change
Natural capital provides a solid foundation for development, while other capital stocks may be lacking Market-oriented incentives may erode a traditional stewardship ethic Good governance is critical (accountability, trust) for sustainability Equity issues are likely to emerge as social structures change In the absence of a “benevolent dictator”, change must happen
through empowering communities (bottom-up)
The sustainability gap is growing, not closing
13.04.2011 67 Source: Fischer et al. (2007). Mind the sustainability gap. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 22, 612-624.
Abson et al., 2014, Ecological Economics
Can ecosystem services help to address deep leverage points? In principle yes, but not as applied at the moment…
Concluding remarks Landscape sustainability science can bring together social and
ecological understandings at a meaningful scale Key challenge is to alternate between practical vs. foundational
Practical is necessary, but can amount to “re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic” Research also needs to address the foundational problems of un-sustainability (values, paradigms, social & economic systems)
Questions & thank you Thanks to my PhD students, postdocs, and many other collaborators Thanks to the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation for funding
Thank you for the invitation and for your attention!
To find out more Blog: ideas4sustainability.wordpress.com Twitter: @ideas4sust All project outputs and papers: peisajesustenabile.wordpress.com Email: jfischer@leuphana.de
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