Mortgage Delinquencies: I Quarter 2011

Mortgage Delinquencies

I Quarter 2011

According to the latest MBA National Delinquency Survey

for 1st quarter 2011, the seasonally-adjusted delinquency

rate increased slightly for 1-4 unit residential mortgage

loans outstanding.

The previous year was marked by continuous decreases in

delinquent mortgage. Looking at non-seasonally-adjusted

data, delinquency rates in fact decreased again in the first

quarter of 2011 to 7.79 percent.

That translates to 3.6 million past due loans, again an 18.5

percent drop from the peak of 4.5 million in the first

quarter of last year. That drop is primarily driven by the

continued decrease in seriously delinquent inventory.

All Loans: Total Past Due, U.S.

SA, Number

1009080706050403020100

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics 06/06/11

4500000

3750000

3000000

2250000

1500000

750000

4500000

3750000

3000000

2250000

1500000

750000

All Loans: Total Past Due, U.S.

% Change - Year to Year SA, Number

1009080706050403020100

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics 06/06/11

60

40

20

0

-20

60

40

20

0

-20

• Mortgages with only one payment past due have picked up a

hair to 3.35 percent in the first quarter though they still

remain at levels prior to those of 2008.

• For mortgages with two missed payments, there was no

change over the last two quarters and they remain at 1.35

percent.

Mortgage Payments Past Due 30-59 Days: United States

Change - Year to Year SA, %

1009080706050403020100

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics 06/06/11

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

Mortgage Payments Past Due 60-89 Days: United States

Change - Year to Year SA, %

1009080706050403020100

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics 06/06/11

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

• The percentage of loans that are 90 days or more days past

due also changed little.

• They stood at 3.62 percent, a decrease of 3 basis points from

last quarter, but a decrease of 140 basis points from the same

time last year.

Mortgage Payments Past Due 90+ Days: United States

Change - Year to Year SA, %

1009080706050403020100

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics 06/06/11

2.25

1.50

0.75

0.00

-0.75

-1.50

2.25

1.50

0.75

0.00

-0.75

-1.50

• Mortgage foreclosure inventory is not budging much, either.

It continues at 1.98 million, which is a 3.8 percent drop from

a year ago when the inventory stood at 2.05 million.

Mortgage Foreclosure Inventory: United States

EOP, NSA, Number

1009080706050403020100

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics 05/31/11

2400000

2000000

1600000

1200000

800000

400000

0

2400000

2000000

1600000

1200000

800000

400000

0

Mortgage Foreclosure Inventory: United States

% Change - Year to Year EOP, NSA, Number

1009080706050403020100

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics 05/31/11

125

100

75

50

25

0

-25

125

100

75

50

25

0

-25

• The percentage of loans for which foreclosure actions were

started during the first quarter was 1.03 percent, down a

significant 392 basis points from last quarter and 14 basis

points since last year, which is a 13 percent drop.

Mortgage Foreclosures Started: United States

SA, %

1009080706050403020100

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics 06/06/11

1.50

1.25

1.00

0.75

0.50

0.25

1.50

1.25

1.00

0.75

0.50

0.25

Mortgage Foreclosures Started: United States

% Change - Year to Year SA, Number

1009080706050403020100

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics 06/06/11

100

75

50

25

0

-25

-50

100

75

50

25

0

-25

-50

• The share of loans in the seriously delinquent category, those

90+ days late or in the foreclosure inventory, decreased some

but still not to the levels needed to see some significant

improvement.

• Seriously delinquent inventory inched from 8.29 percent in

the last quarter and 9.65 last year to 8.14 percent in the first

quarter of this year.

Share of Seriously Delinquent Loans (%)

1009080706050403020100

Source: Haver Analytics 06/06/11

10

8

6

4

2

0

10

8

6

4

2

0

• Regionally, foreclosure inventory has taken most significant

turn in the West where it fell from 560, 000 to 448,000 over

the past year.

• In the other three regions, foreclosure inventory has been on

an almost constant rise. Inventory still remains the largest in

the South, with over 826,000 loans in foreclosure.

Mortgage Foreclosure Inventory: SouthEOP, NSA, Number

Mortgage Foreclosure Inventory: NortheastEOP, NSA, Number

1009080706050403020100

Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics 06/06/11

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0

All Mortgages Past Due: NortheastChange - Year to Year SA, %

All Mortgages Past Due: SouthChange - Year to Year SA, %

1009080706050403020100

Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics 05/31/11

3.00

2.25

1.50

0.75

0.00

-0.75

-1.50

3.00

2.25

1.50

0.75

0.00

-0.75

-1.50

Mortgage Payments Past Due 30-59 Days: SouthSA, %

Mortgage Payments Past Due 30-59 Days: NortheastSA, %

1009080706050403020100

Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics 05/31/11

4.4

4.0

3.6

3.2

2.8

2.4

4.4

4.0

3.6

3.2

2.8

2.4

Mortgage Payments Past Due 90+ Days: NortheastSA, %

Mortgage Payments Past Due 90+ Days: SouthSA, %

1009080706050403020100

Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics 05/31/11

5

4

3

2

1

0

5

4

3

2

1

0

Mortgage Foreclosures Started: South% Change - Year to Year SA, Number

Mortgage Foreclosures Started: Northeast% Change - Year to Year SA, Number

1009080706050403020100

Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics 06/06/11

100

75

50

25

0

-25

100

75

50

25

0

-25

-50

Mortgage Foreclosure Inventory: MidwestEOP, NSA, Number

Mortgage Foreclosure Inventory: WestEOP, NSA, Number

1009080706050403020100

Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics 05/31/11

600000

500000

400000

300000

200000

100000

0

600000

500000

400000

300000

200000

100000

0

• The decrease in mortgages that are past due has been pretty

consistent with all regions, falling between 1.3 and 1.7 percent

over the past year.

• The number of new delinquencies increased slightly in all

regions, while the number of loans 90+ days past due leveled

off in the first quarter following a significant decline in the

past year. The Northeast even saw a slight pick up in the 90+

category.

• Finally, as expected following the robo-signing crisis, the

number of foreclosure starts dropped in all four regions with

largest year-over-year drops seen in the West and South.

From the quarter before, foreclosure starts down 24 percent

in Northeast, 18 percent in Midwest, 10 percent in the South,

and 27 percent in the West.

All Mortgages Past Due: MidwestChange - Year to Year SA, %

All Mortgages Past Due: WestChange - Year to Year SA, %

1009080706050403020100

Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics 05/31/11

4

2

0

-2

-4

4

2

0

-2

-4

Mortgage Payments Past Due 30-59 Days: MidwestSA, %

Mortgage Payments Past Due 30-59 Days: WestSA, %

1009080706050403020100

Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics 05/31/11

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

Mortgage Payments Past Due 90+ Days: WestSA, %

Mortgage Payments Past Due 90+ Days: MidwestSA, %

1009080706050403020100

Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics 05/31/11

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Mortgage Foreclosures Started: West% Change - Year to Year SA, Number

Mortgage Foreclosures Started: Midwest% Change - Year to Year SA, Number

1009080706050403020100

Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics 06/06/11

200

160

120

80

40

0

-40

100

75

50

25

0

-25

-50