Distressed Housing Market Outlook for 2014 and Beyond
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In this presentation given at the 2014 National Association of Mortgage Field Services in Orlando, RealtyTrac Vice President Daren Blomquist covers the latest trends in the distressed housing market and provides an outlook of the risks still remaining that could trip up the housing recovery.
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- 1. Distressed Market Outlook When will distress return to
normal levels and what are the biggest remaining risks to housing
recovery?
- 2. What Well Cover A bit of background Normal and not-so-normal
foreclosure trends Convoluted foreclosure timelines Zombie
foreclosures and occupied REOs Distressed sales Underwater risk
Home sales and price trends NPLs and other possible market
risks
- 3. Almost Back to Normal June 2014 at lowest level since July
2006
- 4. Not so normal 15 states with annual increases in foreclosure
starts in July
- 5. Not so normal California REOs up for fourth consecutive
month in July
- 6. Taking Longer to Foreclose National average at 577 days,
record high
- 7. Mass Confusion
- 8. Zombie Foreclosures
- 9. Zombie Foreclosures About 150,000 zombies nationwide
- 10. Zombie Foreclosures
- 11. Occupied REOs Nationwide 51 percent of REOs are occupied,
nearly 230,000.
- 12. Distressed Sales Declining
- 13. REO Sales Rebounding REO share of sales in July up from
year ago in 22 out of 101 major U.S. housing markets.
- 14. Foreclosure Auction Sales Soaring Still less than 1.5
percent of all U.S. home sales
- 15. Underwater Risk 9.1 million homes with 125 percent equity
or more 17 percent of all U.S. homes with mortgage 34 percent of
U.S. homes in foreclosure with some equity
- 16. Underwater Risk
- 17. Home Prices Bouncing Higher U.S. median home price at
highest level since September 2008
- 18. Peak-Trough Perspective Home prices now 35 percent above
trough But still 20 percent below previous peak.
- 19. A Cold Shower for Hot Home Prices Price appreciation
slowing compared to year ago in 65 percent of U.S. markets
- 20. Turning Down the Sales Volume Three consecutive months with
annual decreases to lowest level since September 2012
- 21. NPL Sales More than 70,000 NPLs sold by FHA alone between
2010 and 2013
- 22. NPL Sales Backed by properties worth a cumulative $9.6
billion
- 23. Opposite Directions
- 24. NPLs delaying foreclosure?
- 25. NPLs delaying foreclosure?
- 26. Other Risks HELOCs 16 million outstanding $79 billion
coming due in next few years Resetting HAMP loan mods More than
775,000 coming to end of government subsidized period this year
Typical increase expected to be $197 for monthly payments