Planning Tools for Linking Rural Development and Transportation

Planning Tools for LinkingRural Development and

TransportationBrian J. Morton, University of North

CarolinaJohn Poros, Mississippi State University

June 14, 2016

WORKSHOP OVERVIEWGreat towns and regions deserve planning tools that inspire the imagination on fine and broad scales

GOALProvide an introduction to a suite of quantitative and qualitative tools that help you …

imagine an area’s future economy, land uses, streetscapes, and transportation system

and …

rigorously compare performance of different development scenarios

Overview

CONTENTSI. Acknowledgments and previous workII. Study areaIII. Current planning challenges and initiatives in small

communities and rural areasIV. Livability analyses

I. Build-out: current zoning and denser zoningII. Bicycle suitabilityIII. Renderings

V. Scenario analyses conducted with a land use – travel demand model

VI. Wrap-Up

Overview

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS AND PREVIOUS WORK

A Regional Land-Use Transportation Decision Support Tool for Mississippi

Colleagues and Sponsor• Joe Hugey and Yi Chen,

North Carolina State University• STRIDE Project 2012-

003S

http://www.stride.ce.ufl.edu/uploads/docs/STRIDE_2012-003S_FinalReport_BrianMorton1.pdf

Overview

7

STUDY AREA: NORTHEASTERN

MISSISSIPPI

Four Counties

Study Area

Tanglefoot Trail®

Study Area

Northeastern Mississippi Automotive Cluster

Study Area

Mississippi Hills NationalHeritage Area

Study Area

PLANNING CHALLENGES AND INITIATIVES IN SMALL TOWNS AND RURAL AREAS

Challenges & initiatives

SUSTAINABILITY

Provide More Transportation Choices

1. Invest in bicycle and pedestrian networks

2. Strengthen transit3. Increase Coast Transit

Authority’s ADA paratransit program to include commuters

Value Communitiesand Neighborhoods

1. Create healthy, safe, walkable neighborhoods

2. Foster a responsible food system

3. Connect communities to the waterfront

PLAN FOR OPPORTUNITY: SELECTED PRIORITIES

Challenges & initiatives

Challenges & initiatives

PERFORMANCE-BASED PLANNING

Challenges & initiatives

Challenges & initiatives

Population Change in Study AreaCounty Pop. 1990 Pop. 2000 Pop. 2010 Pop. 2015 1990 - 2015

Chickasaw 18,085 19,447 17,392 17,328 NegativeLee 65,579 75,664 82,910 85,300 PositivePontotoc 22,237 26,811 29,957 30,908 PositiveUnion 22,085 25,344 27,134 28,429 Positive

Challenges & initiatives

Challenges & initiatives

Furniture Industry in Northeast MS

Furniture Industry 2013 vs 2010

Challenges & initiatives

MISSISSIPPI PULLS FOR AUTO

Challenges & initiatives

Challenges & initiatives

ACTIVE TOURISM

“Access to the Trace brings more people into the city to shop, dine and play. They spend their money here and it boosts our revenue.” Mike Cooper, Mayor of Covington, LA

Challenges & initiatives

HERITAGE TOURISM

Challenges & initiatives

LIVABILITY

LIVABILITY ANALYSES(FINE SCALE)

SCENARIO ANALYSES CONDUCTED WITH A LAND USE – TRAVEL

DEMAND MODEL (BROAD SCALE)

Analytical Tool

• Overview• Look and feel• How we built it• How it works

Scenarios

• Relationship to CommunityViz analyses• Two Towns Scenario• Four Towns Scenario• Results

SECTION CONTENT

LAND USE – TRANSPORTATION INTERACTIONS

A B

D C

Say we have an area consisting of 4 analysis zones: A, B, C, and D.Here is the highway network connecting the zones.

We plan to build a light-rail line connecting zones B and D. This will impact the overall travel in our region.

We would specifically like to analyze the impact on future location of households and jobs in our region, i.e. how the future land use will look.

We obtained regional forecasts of future growth of jobs…... and households.

Our land use model will tell us where these jobs and households will locate….

In addition, as a result of the new transportation capacity and improved travel times, certain zones may became more attractive, causing re-location of existing jobs and households.

The new land use can then be used in a travel demand model as a basis for trip generation and trip distribution. In this example, the new locations of jobs and households will produce more travel on links connecting zones B, C, and D, including the new light-rail line.

Credit: TELUM, New Jersey Institute of Technology

Overview

We know the current locations of jobs and households…

TRANUS MODELING PLATFORM• TRANUS: integrated land use and travel demand model

• Open-source software (Tomás de la Barra, Modelistica)

• Model simulates economy, employment, population, housing, locations of jobs and housing, and daily travel

• Provides insight into how change in land use may change travel

• Predicts consequences of hypothetical or anticipated growth (or decline)

Model overview

WHY TRANUS?• Our study area does not have a travel demand model,

but we want link-level flows

• We want to predict land use in response to employment and population growth …reflecting market forces and community’s development vision

• CommunityViz does not have requisite sophistication

Model overview

STUDY AREA

Look & feel

•Census block groups in four counties comprising a commuting zone•Gateways for

commute trips that cross perimeter and start/end within 60-mile buffer

EMPLOYMENT SECTORS

Look & feel

•3 industries•Auto manufacture is part of “Other industries”

POPULATION SECTORS

Look & feel

HOUSING SECTORS

Look & feel

Look & feel

ROADNETWORK

Look & feel

Base scenario,year 2000

ROADNETWORK

Look & feel

Tanglefoot Trail and bicycle connectors (red links) included in growth scenarios

ECONOMIC INTERACTION• Employers demand labor provided by households• Households residing in the four counties• Households residing outside the four counties but within

a 60-mile buffer

• Population sectors demand:• Commercial goods and services• Housing

• Single-family, multifamily, and manufactured homes• Housing of various size (floor space)

Look & feel

DEMANDS FOR LABOR

Look & feel

WORKERS COMMUTE INTO AND OUT OF FOUR CORE COUNTIES

Look & feel

DEMANDS FOR COMMERCIAL GOODS AND SERVICES AND FOR HOUSING

Look & feel

TRIP PURPOSES• Home-based work

• Home-based commercial

• All other home-based trips

• Internal-external commute

• External-internal commute

Look & feel

Look & feel

TRAVEL DEMAND PARAMETERS

How we built it

DATA SOURCES• Major roads file from TransCAD

(Roads shapefile from MS DOT is an alternative)

• U.S. Census Bureau• Boundary shapefiles• Census 2000• 2000 Census Transportation Planning Package• Public Use Microdata Sample• American Community Survey• LEHD Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES)

How we built it

DATA SOURCES (2)• American Housing Survey

• Consumer Expenditure Survey

• Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

• Benchmark Input-Output Data

• National Household Travel Survey

All needed data are in the public domain

How we built it

TABULATIONS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSES• Households

• Size• Configuration (married, kids, etc.)• Employed/unemployed adults

• Housing consumption• Building type• Floor space (size)

• Demand coefficients• Labor• Commercial goods and services• Housing

How we built it

TABULATIONS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSES (2)• Travel demand parameters• Trip generation rates• Time-of-day proportions• Average vehicle occupancy• Vehicle operating costs• Values of time

• Number of person trips• Trip purpose• Time of day

• External commuting trips

LAND-USE MODULE: TWO HIGHLIGHTS1. Explicitly represents exchanges in the regional

economy:a. Labor marketsb. Commercial goods and servicesc. Housing

2. Predicts trip distribution: Quantity of a commodity consumed in one zone that is supplied by producers in that zone, zone 2, zone 3, etc.

How it works

TRAVEL DEMAND MODULE: TWO HIGHLIGHTS1. Travel is induced by economic exchanges:

a. Businesses hire labor commute tripsb. Households purchase stuff shopping trips

2. Multimodal:a. Carb. Walkc. Biked. (Study area does not have fixed-route transit)

How it works

SCENARIOS: BASIC QUESTIONWhat are livability/sustainability implications of the growth induced by northeastern Mississippi automotive cluster … when growth could occur in the form envisioned by the Wellspring Project (New Albany and Tupelo) …or when growth could occur in an alternative form that may provide geographically broader support for heritage/active tourism?

Scenarios

SCENARIOS: FUNDAMENTAL DIFFERENCES• Growth is concentrated in Tupelo and New Albany,

towns nearest Toyota’s factory and associated suppliers: Two Towns Scenario

• Growth is dispersed more evenly, occurring in Tupelo, New Albany, Houston, and Pontotoc:Four Towns Scenario

Scenarios

ASSUMPTIONS COMMON TO BOTH SCENARIOS• Manufacturing jobs increase in census block groups containing

Toyota’s factory and Tier 1 suppliers in the four core counties

• Households increase to provide new manufacturing workers

• Commercial jobs increase to provide goods

and services demand by new households

• Households further increase to provide new commercial

workers

Scenarios

Regional economic multiplier

ASSUMPTIONS COMMON TO BOTH SCENARIOS (2)• Pre-growth manufacturing jobs, households, and ag/natural-

resources jobs stay in place

• Pre-growth commercial establishments allowed to move

• Locations of new commercial establishments are unconstrained but

are attracted to census block groups that are targets for household

growth

• Tanglefoot Trail opens

• Bicycle-oriented connectors are built in trail towns

Scenarios

GUIDANCE FROM COMMUNITYVIZ ANALYSES• CommunityViz assessed “new zoning” build-out

scenario• Increased density near downtowns• Increased multifamily housing

• Therefore, in the Two Town and Four Town scenarios:• Number of new households should not exceed amount

allowed by “new zoning” build-out• Locations of new households should match “new

zoning”

Scenarios

GROWTH SCENARIO

Scenarios

Auto manufacturing employment growth occurs in selected places

GROWTH SCENARIO

Scenarios

Population growth occurs in selected places

KEY RESULTS: VMT PER PERSON• Two Towns Scenario:

compared to base scenario (year 2000),daily VMT per person decreases by 0.74

• Four Towns Scenario:compared to base scenario (year 2000)daily VMT per person decreases by 0.19

Essentially same daily VMT per person

Scenarios

RESULTS: LEVEL OF SERVICE IN TWO TOWNS SCENARIO

Scenarios

Levels of service A – CLevels of service D - H

RESULTS: LEVEL OF SERVICE IN FOUR TOWNS SCENARIO

Scenarios

Levels of service A – CLevels of service D - H

WRAP-UP

TAKE-HOME MESSAGES• To activate neighborhoods, build modestly dense

infill (7+ DUA) near existing residential and commercial developments

• Tie residential development to trails

• Visualize changes to streetscape

• CommunityViz is powerful but labor-intensive

Wrap-Up

TAKE-HOME MESSAGES• Reimagine places at different scales: from block to

region (commuting zone)

• A multimodal travel demand model is good – necessary for fair, quantitative assessment of benefits of different transportation investments, but …

• A multimodal travel demand model that is integrated with a regional economics land use model is much better because it also features:

• Economic development dashboard

• Projections reality check

Wrap-Up

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT DASHBOARD• Base-year data on employment, population,

housing, transportation infrastructure, and public transit (if any) are all in one place

• Base-year data on employment, population, and housing are consistent with each other

• Economic multipliers are built-in, allowing predictions of secondary effects (indirect and induced)

Wrap-Up

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT DASHBOARD (2)• Growth scenarios are communicated clearly

• Integrated model predicts increased demand for and supply of commercial goods and services• Quantity• Location

• Integrated model predicts increased demands for housing: • Building type• Location

Wrap-Up

PROJECTIONS REALITY CHECK• Predicted traffic congestion provides an early

warning about need for investments in transportation infrastructure or other ways of providing for mobility and accessibility

• Predicted population growth is consistent with predicted employment growth and vice versa

Wrap-Up

PROJECTIONS REALITY CHECK (2)Integrated model predicts locations of employment, population, and housing reflecting market forces and community’s development vision

Wrap-Up