Will history not replay at ge14

Will history not replay at GE14?

Dr Wong Chin Huat Penang Institute

13th General Election of Malaysia: Post Election Forum "The Implication of the GE13 result and post-election scenario“

By Merdeka Centre May 22, 2013

Imagine...

Vote % Quota (1/223)

No of Quotas

Full Quota

Fractional quota Total

BN 47.38% 0.45% 105.66 105 1 106 PKR 20.39% 0.45% 45.47 45 1 46 DAP 15.71% 0.45% 35.03 35 0 35 PAS 14.77% 0.45% 32.94 32 1 33 STAR 0.41% 0.45% 0.91 0 1 1 SWP 0.14% 0.45% 0.31 0 1 1 SAPP 0.09% 0.45% 0.20 0 0 0 Total 98.89% 217 5 222

Even if WM and EM are made two constituencies, with the same formula, PR will still win 110, while BN 109, STAR 2, SWP 1

One person one vote?

47.38%

20.39%

15.71% 14.77%

59.91%

13.51%

17.12%

9.46%

126.00%

66.00%

109.00%

64.00%

BN PKR DAP PAS

Vote-Seat Disproportionality in the Parliamentary Elections 2013

Vote % Seat % Relative Value

It’s a gamble!

39.36%

21.17%

17.67%

20.80% 21.43%

26.00%

26.79%

26.79%

54.00%

118.00%

152.00%

129.00%

BN PKR DAP PAS

Vote-Seat Disproportionality in the Selangor Legislative Elections 2013

Vote % Seat % Relative Value

It’s a casino!

Graphic by Cheng Eng Aun

Nothing New! Vote-seat Disproportionality in Malaysia, 1955-2008

Electio

ns

Largest

Opposition

Party

Votes to

match 1

Alliance/

BN vote

Second

Largest

Oppositio

n Party

Votes to

match 1

Alliance/

BN vote

Third

Largest

Oppositio

n Party

Votes to

match 1

Alliance/

BN vote

1955 PN Infinity PAS* 2.54 NAP* Infinity

1959 PAS* 2.34 SF 2.31 PPP* 2.25

1964 SF 12.25 PAS* 2.47 UDP 6.65

1969 PAS* 3.39 DAP 1.79 Gerakan* 1.81

1974 DAP 4.52 SNAP* 1.37 Pekemas 11.39

1978 DAP 2.72 PAS* 7.03 Pekemas Infinity

1982 DAP 4.75 PAS* 6.30 PSRM Infinity

1986 DAP 2.27 PAS* 40.41 PSRM Infinity

1990 DAP 2.10 S46* 4.48 PAS* 2.28

1995 DAP 3.33 S46* 4.22 PAS* 2.59

1999 PAS* 1.45 DAP 3.28 PKN 6.11

2004 PAS* 8.15 DAP 2.58 PKR 26.08

2008 PKR 1.67 PAS 1.70 DAP 1.37

The Culprits

Three sources of disproportionality • The Nature of Electoral System - FPTP • Malapportionment

– Inter-state (Article 46, Federal Constitution) – Intra-state

• rural weightage • Limit of disparity: +-15%, +-50%, none

• Gerrymandering + Trade-off between Equal Apportionment and Natural Boundary

Different leagues

Graphic by Cheng Eng Aun

Malapportionment at 2013, WM

Malapportionment at 2013, EM

Nothing rural!

93,376

74,698

69,189

57,313

2013 2004

Malapportionment within state Baling Alor Star

Nothing Malay!

72,845

39,688

34,290

20,006

2013 2004

Malapportionment within parliamentary constituency

Sri Serdang (2004: 57% Malays) Kinrara (2004: 61% Chinese)

Gerrymandering – Turning Politics into Geography

Gerrymandering Type 1: Crossing Municipal/District Boundaries

Gerrymandering Type 2: Arbitrary Combination of Communities

N45

N45

N45

N45 N45

N45

N46

N46

Gerrymandering Type 3: Partitioning Neighbourhoods

From left to right: the communities of Puchong Intan, Pusat Bandar Puchong and Bandar

Kinrara are segmented into N.30 Kinrara (east) and N.29 Seri Serdang (west).

PUCHONG INTAN

FPTP is fraud-prone

• Under FPTP, for a seat with a real margin of 1,000 votes, to turn the outcome around may need only

– Deploying 1,001 phantoms

– Spoiling 1,001 votes cast for the winner

– Buying 501 votes

• Under Proportional Representation (entire nation as one constituency) with the formula of 1/(M+1) or 1/223, with 11,054,577 valid votes, the quota for a seat is 49,572! (see Slide 1)

The Agenda for Electoral Reform

• If nothing changes in the rules of the game, GE14 may be even more frustrating than GE13.

• Constituency Redelienation – citizens’ participation can prevent malapportionment and gerrymandering from getting worse.

• In the long term, we still need electoral system change: – Majoritarian: Alternative Vote (Australia)

– Proportional: Mixed Member Proportional (Germany)

• No political change can be done without the Borneoan approval. Hence, decentralisation and electoral reform must be offered in a package.