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UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
TRADOC Mad ScientistNewport News VAJanuary 20, 2010
Strategic Foresight
Technological Forecasting
Dr. Peter BishopFutures Studies
University of Houston
Source: Technology Forecast Archive, Battelle,http://www.battelle.org/spotlight/tech_forecast/
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Agenda
Change
Forecasting change
Forecasting technological change
Describing the Futures of Technology
Describing the Futures of Technology
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Change
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Change and Stability
Nothing
changes
everything
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Four Basic Concepts
Sources
Times Levels
Rates
ChangeChange
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Sources of Change
…but within limits
INBOUNDChange that happens to us
Predict…
OUTBOUNDChange we create ourselves
Control…Anticipate…Intelligence
Influence…Policy
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Transactional Environment
Levels of Change
Enterprise
STEEPSTEEPPolitical
EnvironmentalTechnologicalEconomic
Social
Demographic
Cultural
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Rates of Change
Continuous change• gradual improvement over long periods
• usually preserves the framework/context
Discontinuous change• sudden change to new levels
• usually destroys the framework/context
• always involves short-term loss
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
S-Curve
The Real Shape of Change
1
No problem.
2
What is going on here?
3 Whew!
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Eras in Information Technology
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Past Disruptions
Airlines
Automobiles
Telephones
Television
Health care
Retail
Utilities
The Common ElementDestruction of MonopoliesAppearance of Competition
The Common ElementDestruction of MonopoliesAppearance of Competition
Newspapers
Military
Elections
Schools?
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Estimation errors
Overestimation
Underestimation
Too late
Too soon
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Hype Curve
ExpectationExpectation RealityRealityO
vere
stim
ate
Und
eres
timat
eThe media first overestimates the effect of a change.
Then the media underestimates its effect.
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Punctuated Equilibrium
TransitionsTransformational, Discontinuous
TransitionsTransformational, Discontinuous
ErasIncremental, Continuous
ErasIncremental, Continuous
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Speed
Successive Eras
Running
Riding
Motoring
Flying
Inherent capacity
for perfo
rmance
Law of dim
inishing
returns
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
x
The Gap
0
1
0
1
Old era
New eraTransitions inevitability
create problems...
…but problems are investments toward a better future.
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Wider Broad scope, Context
big picture
Deeper Meaning, drivers, Pattern
behind the details
Longer Change, Future
implications
b
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Forecasting Theory
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
The Predictable Future
Predictability, according to natural law, was one of the
most powerful cornerstones of the scientific revolution --
Newton, Leibniz, Enlightenment So much so that it became the default assumption about
the future for physical science,
social science, and the professions Based on the belief of order,
causality, connectedness, and flow The future as a river, following
one path and leading to a specific point
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
The Contingent Future
We learn history as a series of events and actions, some with clear causal connections, but often as the result of surprising contingencies.
In last century, the contingencies and uncertainties inherent even in natural phenomena have become even more apparent – Stochastic processes -- Galton– Quantum mechanics -- Bohr, Heisenberg– Biological evolution -- Gould– Chaos theory -- Lorenz– Complexity science -- von Neuman, Wolfram, Kauffman
Based on the dominance of chance and uncertainty over determinism and predictability
The future as a dice game
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
The Chosen Future
The religious, economic and political traditions of Western society place primary responsibility for the future on individuals—on their intentions and their actions.
Examples –– Religion claims that we will be rewarded and
punished according to our actions; the law also holds individuals responsible for their actions.
– Individuals in a market economy must provide for themselves and their families.
– When something goes wrong, we look for someone to blame; when something goes well, we hand out awards.
Based on the dominance of human agency and free will over the forces of determinism and chance
The future as a blueprint
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Inference Model
Evidence
Evidence
EvidenceEvidence
Evidence
Assumption Assumption Assumption
Unobservable
Observable
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Knowing Different Times
History
VisionsEvents
Trends
IssuesImages
DrawingsWritings
Artifacts
StructuresBones
Assumptions
Forecast
Assumptions
Present
Evidence
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Prediction and Forecasting
Prediction
Physical evidence
Strong assumptions
Unitary phenomenon
Higher quality inferences
Forecasting
Intangible evidence
Weak assumptions
Multiple possibilities
Lower quality inferences
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Framework Forecasting
Dr. Peter Bishop, Futures Studies, University of Houston
Alternative futuresAlternative futures
Information sources• texts• experts• organizations• periodicals• websites
Information sources• texts• experts• organizations• periodicals• websites
History• previous eras
separated by events/ discontinuities
• the current “era”beginning with the most recent discontinuities
History• previous eras
separated by events/ discontinuities
• the current “era”beginning with the most recent discontinuities
ImpactsImplications
ImpactsImplications
ImpactsImplications
ImpactsImplications
Response• policy• plans• actions
Response• policy• plans• actions
Dr. Peter Bishop, 2000
Framework Forecasting
Forces of change• ongoing trends• potential events• emerging issues• new ideas
Forces of change• ongoing trends• potential events• emerging issues• new ideas
UncertaintyUncertainty
}
Current conditions• social• technological• economic• environmental• political
Current conditions• social• technological• economic• environmental• political
STAKEHOLDERS
EffectsInformation
Research
Scanning
Leading indicators
Leading indicators
Baseline futureBaseline future
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Common Futures Thinking
Futures Forces Thinking Techniques
Expected Constants Definite Historical analogy(baseline) Trends Scientific Extrapolation
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Mechanisms of Change – The Baseline
TrendsPlans
TrendsPlans
Constants
Cycles
Trends
Stakeholder Intentions/Plans
Projections
Expected Future Implications
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Thinking about the Future
Factors that limit our understanding of the future
• Lack of information“what we don’t know”
• Incorrect theories“what we think we know”
• Unexamined assumptions“what we believe we know”
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Assumptions in Trend Extrapolation
Business School Enrollment, UH-Clear LakeDeseasonalized
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
80-1 81-1 82-1 83-1 84-1 85-1 86-1 87-1 88-1 89-1 90-1 91-1 92-1 93-1 94-1 95-1 96-1 97-1 98-1 99-1 00-1 01-1 02-1 03-1 04-1
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Making the call
Assumptions resolve uncertainty…
…but resolving uncertainty may not be
the right thing to do.
Resolve as much uncertainty as you can, but no more.Resolve as much uncertainty as you can, but no more.
Katrina
Rita
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Sources of Uncertainty
Insufficient or incorrect information
Insufficient or incorrect understanding
Inherently unpredictable systems (chaos)
Inherently critical systems
Inherently novel, creativeself-organizing systems
Human choice
???????
??
ChaosCriticality
ComplexityChoice
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Limit
of P
lausib
ility
AlternativeFutures
Limit of Plausibility
The Cone of Plausibility
Past
The Future is many,not one.
The Future is many,not one.
Source: Charles Taylor, Army War College
Implications
Baseline
Present
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Another Type of Futures Thinking
Futures Forces Thinking Techniques
Expected Constants Definite Historical analogy(baseline) Trends Scientific Extrapolation
Plausible Discontinuities Speculative Scenarios(alternative) Surprises Imaginative Simulation
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Mechanisms of Change -- Alternatives
DiscontinuitiesDiscontinuities
TrendsTrends Trend reversalsCounter-trends
Unfulfilled intentionsFailed strategies
Potential eventsWildcards
Unresolved issues
Novel ideasProposals
ScenariosImplications
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
The “Trick” of Scenarios
ImpactImpact
High
HighModerateLow
Low
ProbabilityProbability
U n i m p o r t a n t
Expec
ted
Scenar
io
Wild
card
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Words and ProbabilitiesTerm… Means…
Impossible = 0%
Possible > 0%
Plausible >> 0%
Probable, likely > 50%
Certain = 100%
Most certain = ~0% or ~100%
Most likely (expected, surprise-free, official, baseline)
= more likely than any other, but is usually << 50%
Most uncertain = ~50%
Wildcard = ~0%, but with high impact if it does occur
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
The Language of Plausibility
Indicative
Will
Must
Should
Subjunctive
May
Might
Could
Past Present Future
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
The Real Purpose of Forecasting
Surprises
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Two ways to the top
...rather than in a big way all at once!
...rather than in a big way all at once!
Being surprised in little ways over a long
time...
Being surprised in little ways over a long
time...
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Forecasting -- Two Approaches
Short-term horizon (immediate) Long-term horizon
Single domain (specialization) Many domains
Few factors (reductionism) Many factors
Focus on continuity (models) Focus on discontinuity
Hide uncertainty (assumptions) Reveal uncertainty
Single forecast (predictions) Alternative forecasts
Quantitative techniques Qualitative techniques(math, computers)
Traditional Foresight
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Technological Change
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
The Third Wave
Era 1
Era 1Hunting/Gathering
Agricultural
Industrial
Information
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Other Waves
Era 1
Steam
Electricity
Petroleum
Information
Rail
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Digital Technology
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
The Automobile Economy
Exxon, Mobil, GM, Ford Interstates, parking lots Suburbs, inner cities, Detroit Commuting, vacations Drive-ins, radio Patrol car, get-away car Independence, status, rite of passage Traffic deaths, pollution
Can you GO without it?Can you GO without it?
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Changing of the Guard
Energy Society Oil Automobiles Aircraft Petrochemicals
Information Society Information
Communication
Finances
Media, Entertainment
Retail
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
The Reduction of...The Elimination of...
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Dematerializing the World
Information from Paper
Communication from Mail
Libraries from Books
Money from Currency
Selling from Stores
Entertainment from Theaters
Meetings from Travel
“All things solid melt into air.” --Karl Marx and Frederick Engels, 1848
“All things solid melt into air.” --Karl Marx and Frederick Engels, 1848
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
MolecularTechnology
Bio-Nano-Cogno
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Bio-Technology
Domestication of plants and animals (breeding, grafting) Genetic markers
– Werner Arber, et. al. – restriction enzymes, cuts the DNA (late 1960s) Recombinant DNA
– Stanley Cohen, Herbert Boyer – recombinant DNA, inserts new DNA (1978) Nuclear Transfer
– Robert Briggs, Thomas King – cloned tadpoles (1952)– Ian Wilmut – cloned sheep, Dolly (1996)
Stem cells– Hayflick limit – cells die after certain number of reproductions (1965)– Teratocarcinoma – first cells that never died or differentiated (1964)– M Evans, M Kaufmann, G Martin – stem cells from mouse embryo (1981)– James Thompson -- stem cells from human embryo (1998)
Neuroscience– Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI, 1990)– Neuron-chip communication
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
New Lines of Research Genomics Proteomics Combinatorial and ADMET* chemistry Assay development Computer modeling Bioinformatics Gene shuffling High throughput machinery Pharming
Source: The Biotech Investor’s Bible, George Wolff, 2001.
*Absorption-Distribution-Excretion- Metabolism-Toxicity
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
But Why Stop at Medicine?
Agriculture Higher yields
Pest-resistant
Herbicide resistant
Lower water needs
Nitrogen fixation
More nutritious
Industry Materials
Manufacturing
Energy
Waste management
Computing
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Nano Applications
Air Quality Medicine Chemical Sensors Consumer Products Energy Electronics Food Molecular Manufacturing MEMS Space Water Quality
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Neuroscience – Unanswered Questions
Consciousness Perception Learning, memory Neuroplasticity Cognition, decisions Language Development, evolution Diseases
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Energy?
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Source: ASPO-USA; created by OilPoster.org
One possible scenario…
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Temperature Projections to 2100
Source: IPCC Data Distribution Center, http://ipcc-data.org/
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Abrupt Climate Change
Meridional Overturning Circulation (North Atlantic Conveyer) Rapid West Antarctic and/or Greenland Ice Sheet Collapse Volcanoes Methane Hydrate
and/or Permafrost Methane Instability Biogeochemical
(carbon source/sink)
Source: IPCC, 4th Assessment Report, http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter8.pdf
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Energy Sources
Fossil Fuels– Coal– Oil– Natural Gas
Nuclear Renewables
– Hydro– Geothermal– Wind– Biofuels
» Crops» Cellulosic» Algae
– Solar» Solar thermal» Photovoltaic (PV)
– Tidal/wave
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Commerce, Comfort &
Connectivity
Emissions Control
Crude Oil Natural Gas Coal
Bio-fuels
Wind, Tides, Currents,
Waves, Solar
NuclearEngineered
Crops
ICEFuel Cell
Gasoline & Diesel
Gasification
Combined Cycle
Chemical Separation
Syngas
Hydrogen
Fischer TropschRefining
CO2 Flue Gas
PC
Sequestration
Nuclear Waste Transportation
Bio-refiningChemical
Processing
Transmission
Batteries
Transmission
Personal Mobility
A Complex Energy Picture
Societal Needs
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Getting to Work
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Mechanisms of Change -- Preferred
ChoiceChoice
DiscontinuityDiscontinuity
TrendTrend
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Three Types of Futures Thinking
Futures Forces Thinking Techniques
Expected Constants Definite Historical analogy(baseline) Trends Scientific Extrapolation
Plausible Discontinuities Speculative Scenarios(alternative) Surprises Imaginative Simulation
Preferable Choices Visionary Visioning(visionary) Images Empowered Planning
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
Language of the Future
STEEP
Demographic Technological Economic Environmental
Political Cultural
STEEP
Demographic Technological Economic Environmental
Political Cultural
Expectations
TrendsPlans
Expectations
TrendsPlans
PreferencesValuesVisionGoals
StrategiesActions
PreferencesValuesVisionGoals
StrategiesActions
ScenariosTrend reversals
Unfulfilled plansPotential events
Unresolved issuesNew ideas
ScenariosTrend reversals
Unfulfilled plansPotential events
Unresolved issuesNew ideas
UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals
A Final Word
Learning faster than your competitors is the only sustainable competitive advantage in an environment of rapid innovation and change.
-- Arie de Geus, former Director Corporate Planning Royal Dutch Shell Group
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