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Maurizio (Moe) Agostino, Managing Commodity Strategist, Farms.com Risk Management 2014 Review of Grain Supply and Demand Fundamentals, Key Global Macro Issues, Chart Analysis, Weather and basis update and grain price target outlooks. Where will the marketing opportunities appear in a lower priced grain environment.
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2014 28th ANNUAL GREY BRUCE FARMERS WEEK – 2014 GRAIN MARKET OUTLOOK - IS
$4.00 CORN NEW NORMAL?
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2012 GRAIN OUTLOOK: IS $7.00 CORN THE NEW NORMAL?
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2011 PRICE TARGETS (GAME PLAN)
CROP PRICE FORECAST
CORN SHORT-TERM (30-60 DAYS) $6.74 - $7.00LONG-TERM (60 – 210 DAYS $7.00 - $7.50
SOYBEANS SHORT-TERM (30-60 DAYS) $12.50 - $13.00LONG-TERM (60 – 210 DAYS) $13.50 -
$14.00
CANOLA SHORT-TERM (30-60 DAYS) $545LONG-TERM (60 – 210 DAYS) $575 - $600
CHICAGO WHEAT SHORT-TERM (30-60 DAYS) $7.27LONG-TERM (60 – 210 DAYS) $8.00 - $8.25
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2012 PRICE TARGETS (GAME PLAN)
CROP PRICE FORECAST
CORN DECEMBER FUTURES US $7.00 – $8.00
SOYBEANS NOVEMBER FUTURES US $14.00 - $15.00
CANOLA NOVEMBER FUTURES $600 - $630/MT
CHICAGO WHEAT SEPTEMBER FUTURES $8.00 - $8.50
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Review of 2011 & 2012 U.S. DROUGHT
2013 similar to 1988 as a “SHORT CROP, LONG TAIL” year.
2014 Grain Supply & Demand (Fundamental) Outlook
14 Macro Economic Outlook (outside markets) & Global Trends
2014 Chart/Technical Outlook
2014 Ontario Basis Outlook
2014 Weather Outlook
2014 Bottom-line & Game Plan
2014 Price Outlook & Targets
AGENDA
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MONTHLY LONG-TERM CORN CHART
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U.S. DROUGHT PEAKED IN SEPTEMBER OF 2012
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2012 U.S. HEAT & DROUGHT DESTROYED U.S. CORN YIELDS 122.8 BPA
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U.S. DROUGHT WORST IN 91 YEARS, JULY 16, 2012
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WHAT A DIFFERENCE A YEAR MAKES JULY 2013
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U.S. CORN YIELDS DATING BACK TO 1866
RARE & VERY UNUSUAL
2012 QUALIFIES AS A “SHORT CROP, LONG TAIL YEAR” LIKE 1988
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SHORT CROP
LONG TAIL
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2012 “SHORT CROP, LONG TAIL”
MANAGED MONEY CROWD WERE RECORD LONG
COMMODITY LONG OR SHORT
(05/31/11)
LONG OR SHORT
(11/22/11)
LONG OR SHORT
(07/10/12)
LONG OR SHORT
(08/14/12)
CORN LONG 328,112
LONG 149,084
LONG 201,956
LONG 303,178
SOYBEANS LONG 117,551
SHORT (8,622)
LONG 250,792
LONG 230,545
WHEAT LONG 83,241
SHORT (50,582)
LONG62,468
LONG 77,104
2013’S LONG TAIL GOT LONGER
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NEEDED TO SELL A YEAR IN ADVANCE
2014 GRAIN OUTLOOK
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2014 JANUARY USDA WASDE REPORT BULLISH CORN, NEUTRAL SOYS & BEARISH WHEAT!
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2014 MARCH WEEKLY CORN FUTURES CONTRACT
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PRE 2014 JANUARY WASDE REPORT - 2014 & 2015 U.S. CORN SUPLLY & DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK
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PRE 2014 JANUARY WASDE REPORT - 2014 & 2015 U.S. CORN DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK
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POST 2014 JANUARY USDA WASDE REPORT - 2014 & 2015 U.S. CORN SUPLLY & DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK
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POST 2014 JANUARY USDA WASDE REPORT - 2014 U.S. CORN DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK
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PRE 2014 JANUARY WASDE REPORT - 2014 & 2015 U.S. SOYBEAN SUPLLY & DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK
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PRE 2014 JANUARY WASDE REPORT - 2014 & 2015 U.S. SOYBEAN DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK
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POST 2014 JANUARY WASDE REPORT - 2014 & 2015 U.S. SOYBEAN SUPLLY & DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK
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POST 2014 JANUARY WASDE REPORT - 2014 U.S. SOYBEAN DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK
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PRE 2014 USDA JANUARY WASDE REPORT - 2014 & 2015 U.S. ALL WHEAT SUPLLY & DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK
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PRE 2014 USDA JANUARY WASDE REPORT - 2014 & 2015 U.S. ALL WHEAT DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK
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POST 2014 USDA WASDE REPORT - 2014 & 2015 U.S. ALL WHEAT SUPLLY & DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK
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POST 2014 USDA WASDE REPORT - 2014 U.S. ALL WHEAT DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK
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LONG-TERM WEEKLY CHART ON CHICAGO WHEAT FUTURES
SOURCE: WWW.QTPLUS.COM
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2014 USDA AG OUTLOOK FORUM
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2014 USDA AG OUTLOOK FORUM
2013 PROJECTIONS
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2013/14 GLOBAL TRENDS
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#1 LARGEST ECONOMY U.S. LOOKING BETTER GROWING AT 3.6% IN 13, +2.5% IN 2014
STOCK MARKETS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THE WALL OF WORRY TO NEW ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS, NEGATIVE FOR COMMODITIES
BUT….
SOURCE: WWW.QTPLUS.COM
2014 DJIA MARCH WEEKLY FUTURES CHART
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#2 LARGERST ECONOMY CHINA EXPECTED TO GROW AT +7.70+ IN 2013, +8.2% IN 2014
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OPEC PROJECTING $100 – $110 ON INCREASED DEMAND, SUPPLY WILL WEIGH
SOURCE: WWW.QTPLUS.COM
2014 FEBRUARY WEEKLY CRUDE OIL FUTURES CHART
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HEATING OIL FUTURES HIGHER = HIGHER DIESEL FUEL PRICES
SOURCE: WWW.QTPLUS.COM
2014 FEBRUARY WEEKLY HEATING OIL FUTURES CHART
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STRONGER EUROPE, GROWTH IN 14 = HIGHER EURO $
SOURCE: WWW.QTPLUS.COM
2014 MARCH WEEKLY EURO $ FUTURES CHART
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U.S. $ INDEX TRENDING LOWER, SUPPORT AT $80
SOURCE: WWW.QTPLUS.COM
2014 MARCH U.S. $ INDEX FUTURES CHART
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CDN $ TRENDING LOWER, SUPPORT AT $0.93 A $ YEAR LOW
SOURCE: WWW.QTPLUS.COM
2014 MARCH CANADIAN $ WEEKLY FUTURES CHART
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US TAPER WILL SLOW DOWN, BUT LABOR MARKET WEAK???
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RASING OF DEBT CEILING RISK OFF THE TABLE IN 2014, NO RECESSION FOR 12 – 24 MONTHS
SOURCE: WWW.QTPLUS.COM
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2014 TECHNICAL CHART OUTLOOK
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2014 JULY CORN DAILY FUTURES CHART
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2014 DECEMBER CORN DAILY FUTURES CHART
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2014 JULY SOYBEAN DAILY FUTURES CHART
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2014 NOVEMBER SOYBEAN DAILY FUTURES CHART
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2014 JULY CHICAGO WHEAT DAILY FUTURES CHART
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2014 ONTARIO BASIS WATCH
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2013 & 2014 ONTARIO CORN BASIS
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2013 & 2014 ONTARIO SOYBEAN WATCH
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2013 & 2014 ONTARIO CHICAGO WHEAT (SRW) BASIS
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2013 WEATHER & CROP PROGRESS UPDATE
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP – U.S. AT 54% VS. 12 AT 74%
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP – U.S. MIDWEST AT 33% (BETTER BY 9% IN 1 MONTH) ABNORMALLY DRY VS. 12 AT 72%
BUT SOIL MOISTURE LOOKING GOOD
U.S. WINTER TO PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL
U.S. MIDWEST SUMMER 2014 HOT & WET
U.S. TEMPS % PRECIPITATION NOVEMBER 2013 – OCTOBER 2014
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BOTTOM-LINE
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2014 TRENDS TO WATCH
WATCH SPECULATORS REMAIN SHORT CORN & WHEAT, SOYS HAVE MOST TO LOSE AS FUNDS REMAIN LONG
COMMODITY LONG OR SHORT (05/31/11)
LONG OR SHORT(06/18/12)
LONG OR SHORT(08/14/12)
LONG OR SHORT(03/05/13)
LONG OR SHORT(06/11/13)
LONG OR SHORT(01/07/13)
CORN LONG328,112
LONG 43,024
LONG303,178
LONG 62,864
LONG 82,517
SHORT 891,451
SOYBEANS LONG 117,551
SHORT 212,956
LONG230,545
LONG 128,296
LONG 153,615
LONG 107,658
CHICAGO WHEAT
LONG 83,241
SHORT (6,367)
LONG77, 104
SHORT 46,286
SHORT 16,697
SHORT 73,088
WATCH CHINESE DEMAND (UP 5 FOLD IN 5 YEARS)
WATCH WEATHER NEEDS TO BE DRY EARLY FOR FUTURES TO RALLY
LOOK FOR A LOWR CDN $ FOR BASIS OPPORTUNITIES
2013/14 OLD CROP BASIS TARGETS
COMMODITY 01-09-14 BASIS/BU
BASIS TARGET LEVEL/BU TO
BOOK
CORN -0.20 0.00 - +0.10
SOYBEANS +0.70 +1.00 - +1.20
CHICAGO WHEAT (SRW)
-0.15 0.10 - +0.30
2014/15 NEW CROP BASIS TARGETS
COMMODITY 12/09/13 BASIS LEVEL/BU
BASIS TARGET LEVEL/BU TO
BOOK
CORN -0.25 0.00 - +0.10
SOYBEANS +0.20 +40 - +0.60
CHICAGO WHEAT (SRW)
-0.30 0.00 - +0.20
2014 MARKETING GAME PLAN
2013/14 OLD CROP FUTURES TARGETS
COMMODITY FUTURES MONTH
FUTURES TARGET PRICE UPDATE
CORN JULY 2014 $5.00 - $5.50
SOYBEANS JULY 2014 $12.60 - $12.80
CHICAGO WHEAT JULY 2014 $7.00 - $7.25
2014/15 NEW CROP FUTURES TARGETS
COMMODITY FUTURES MONTH
FUTURES TARGET PRICE UPDATE
CORN DECEMBER 2014
$5.09 - $5.29
SOYBEANS NOVEMBER2014
$12.03 - $12.28
CHICAGO WHEAT JULY 2014 $7.00 - $7.25
2015/16 NEW CROP FUTURES TARGETS
COMMODITY FUTURES MONTH
FUTURES TARGET PRICE UPDATE
CORN DECEMBER 2014
$5.12 - $5.29
SOYBEANS NOVEMBER2014
$11.84 - $12.07
CHICAGO WHEAT JULY 2014 $7.04 - $7.27
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THANK YOUQUESTIONS & DISCUSSION
Please e-mail or call me at
Maurizio (Moe) AgostinoFarms.com Risk Management
Managing Commodity Strategist 1-877-438-5729 Ext. 5040
Cell: 1-519-871-2134E-mail: moe.agostino@farms.com
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COMMODITY MARKETING THAT MAKES CENT$
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