James McQuivey - The Inevitability of Autonomous Machines

The Inevitability of Autonomous Machines: How we get there from hereJames McQuivey, Ph.D. Vice President, Principal Analyst

1 October 2015

Isn’t adoption hard?Wait a minute

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If autonomous machines are so inevitable…

…why are we so afraid of them.

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Source: ___

Even Machiavelli knew thisdifficultperilousuncertain

Machiavelli, The Prince

“…a new order of things…”

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True: People resist a new order of things,even when it is awesome.

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Source: Source: James L. McQuivey, “How To Predict What Consumers Will Do Or Buy,” Forrester Research, Inc., July 6, 2001.Source: “Brief: Privacy Concerns Will Shape, Not Stop, Google Glass Adoption” Forrester report.

“Never” going online

30%50%

Concerned about Google Glass

Want it anyway

45%

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Source: ___

The brain has no choice

We evolved under this kind of pressure

Today we still face costs, tradeoffs, and losses

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This is called loss aversion and it’s real But digital disruption reduces loss

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Old business Digital disruption

Digital disruption lets you reduce the cost of awesome

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Reduce the risk of new behaviors, and people will adopt them more quickly

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26%

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900m

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For now, hyperadoption exists at a low level, close to the individual product

Autonomous machines kick in as hyperadoption goes sytem-wide

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Today, we wonder if people will buy…

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The steps to autonomous machines are not about products, they’re about systems

Sensors Robotics Intelligent systems Ecosystems

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The steps to autonomous machines are not about products, they’re about systems

Sensors “sense”

Robotics “act”

Intelligent systems “think”

Ecosystems “connect”

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Consumer actions today, make this possible tomorrow

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Whoever owns the ecosystem, will make autonomous machines commonplace

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And people will love it

forrester.com

Thank you

James McQuivey, Ph.D. VP, Principal Analyst