OMG The Backfire Effect: How do we win when facts don't work?

VERSION 8.0

VERSION 8.0

WHAT IS IT?It’s a cognitive quirk that not

only rejects facts that contradict our core beliefs, but

STRENGTHENS those core beliefs despite the facts.

VERSION 8.0

Example: Immunization: Parents reluctant to immunize children against flu were

shown conclusive evidence that their concern – that the vaccine could

*cause* flu- was false. They accepted the fact. But their willingness to

immunize their children DECREASED.

VERSION 8.0

Example: Warehouse fire: Subjects are told a

story about a warehouse fire. At first, it appears the fire was caused by paint

cans in a closet. This fact is later corrected: it was discovered the closet was empty. 50% recall the cause of the

fire incorrectly, blaming paint cans. Their minds preferred a complete story

filled in with an incorrect fact to an incomplete one.

VERSION 8.0

Example: A similar group were told that the paint cans were not the cause, but were also told another closet had been found full

of oily rags.

NONE of them mis-recalled the paint cans. The story was completed by the

oily rags.

VERSION 8.0

WHY?Because what we think of as our

reasoning brain is usually more like a politician than a scientist.

We embrace facts that back up our opinions, reject facts that might

change them. It’s easier to say “that fact is wrong” than “My worldview is

incorrect

VERSION 8.0

WHY?Because cooperation and tribal

identity are built on shared beliefs, and are hard to build.

Evolution has made these things resilient.

We don’t want to adopt

opinions different from our tribe.

f

VERSION 8.0

WHY?Because our IDENTITY is tied to

our deeper beliefs.

We don’t change who we are lightly. It’s easier to say “that fact is wrong” than “I don’t know who I am anymore.”

VERSION 8.0

WHY?Climate Deniers aren’t

the only ones that do it.

VERSION 8.0

“The facts are so clear, Brexit will clearly not win a majority

referendum.”

“The facts are so clear, Donald Trump can’t possibly win.”

VERSION 8.0

In fact, we ALL do it.

VERSION 8.0

Some of our organisations, and some of us in this room, have

an “irrational emotional attachment to rationality.”

We ignore the facts of persuasion science that facts don’t win, and keep running

fact-based campaigns.

VERSION 8.0

In fact, this presentation is a

fact-based effort to try to persuade you.

VERSION 8.0

I’m doomed.

VERSION 8.0

Ways to Avoid the Backfire Effect

VERSION 8.0

Abandon the “Information deficit model”.

Presenting the facts in a new report is not going to win your campaign on its own.

VERSION 8.0

Focus on theundecideds, not the skeptics.

VERSION 8.0

Join with someone who disagrees with you in a joint attempt to solve a mystery.

VERSION 8.0

Adjust your framing & vocabulary to avoid triggers*.

“Environment” is a dirty word for conservatives. Looking to stop fracking, talk about the “Sanctity of the land.”

VERSION 8.0

Change behaviour to change opinion, not the other way around.

VERSION 8.0

Make someone feel GREAT about their other values. Take Identity off the table.

VERSION 8.0

Don’t mention the myth you’re trying to debunk, only the fact you’re trying to plant.

VERSION 8.0

Don’t overkill. If one fact is enough, two might completely undermine your case. I’m really sorry I didn’t make it to your

party. I was sick. And I had a flat tire.

VERSION 8.0

Replace the table leg you are taking away.

If you’re going to say that X is not the cause of Y, you better have something to replace X, or the brain’s distaste for an incomplete story will put X right back.

VERSION 8.0

Don’t use fact at all. Avoid talking to the head. Talk to the heart. Trigger someone’s values with a STORY.

VERSION 8.0

The best persuasive device is a personal story, told face to face, ideally by someone like you who used to share your opinion, but changed their mind.

VERSION 8.0

Sources & More:• The You Are Not So Smart Podcast: The Backfire

Effect• The Righteous Mind: Jonathan Haidt• The Debunking Handbook: J. Cook, S.

Lewandowsky• Don’t Think of an Elephant! George Lakoff• The Political Brain: Drew Westen• Why Facts don’t Change our Minds: Elizabeth

Kolbert• Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind, Yuval Noa

h Harari• George Marshall: Don’t Even Think About It

VERSION 8.0

Brian FitzgeraldTommy Crawfordwww.dancing-fox.commisterfox@dancing-fox.com

Let’s get better at making a more beautiful world.