View
896
Download
6
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
Wind Energy Trends in Denmark
Aisma Vitina, Ea Energy Analyses
SEAI and IEA Wind Task 26 seminar”The Cost and Value of Wind Energy”
Dublin, May 26, 2014
On the menu
• The particularities of the Danish (wind power) – Early adoption and high penetration
– TSO’s involvement and cost sharing
– Public access to data – and ownership
– Repowering (*)
• Wind energy project cost drivers
• Cost development over time in Denmark
2
The particularities of the Danish wind power: Early adoption & high penetration (1)
4
33.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
Win
d p
ow
er %
in e
lect
rici
ty
gen
erat
ion
Cu
mu
lati
ve w
ind
po
wer
cap
acit
y (M
W)
Onshore capacity [MW] Offshore capacity [MW]
Wind power % in electricity generation
Source: Danish Energy Agency ”Energistatistik 2013”, Energinet.dk
5
Source: American Wind Energy Association (based on Berkeley Lab estimates, data from Navigant and EIA)
The particularities of the Danish wind power: Early adoption & high penetration (2)
The particularities of the Danish wind power: TSO’s involvement and cost sharing
6
• The developer only pays for the connection from the turbine to the coupling point– Transformers, substations, grid extension – cost socialized (covered by the grid
company/-ies)
• Also for offshore projects– Exploratory studies (geophysical, geotechnical, metaocean and environmental
assessment) carried out by the TSO
• Impact on overall project risk and costs
Source: IEA Task 26 WP1 Report 2011, Energinet.dk. Photo source for the illustration: http://blog.journals.cambridge.org/, http://meship.com/
Wind power project Existing grid infrastructureNew connection line
Paid for by the Developer
Paid for by the Grid company
• Individual turbine-level data starting 1978 reported and published
• A regulation stipulating local residents’ ‘right of purchase’ of 20% of the wind power project shares at cost price– Audited share purchase
offers (incl. cost data) are publicly available
– Contributes to high acceptance rate and availability of sites across the country (terrible noise vs ‘the sound of money being made’)
7
The particularities of the Danish wind power: public access to data – and ownership
Interactive map screenshot from http://vindinfo.dk/
Wind energy project cost drivers: key factors
• Materials, components, labour– Especially significant in the period leading up to 2008
• Supply-demand dynamics, competitive landscape– Over-supply in the early 2000s, bottle-necks leading
up to 2008
• O&M costs– Increase in turbine size / production, among other
things, decreases per-kWh O&M costs
– More mature technology, higher capacity factors, lower administration and other costs per MW
9
Source: Nielsen, P. ”Vindmøllers Økonomi”
Wind energy project cost drivers: size
• Continuous turbine size increase over the past 20 years• In 2012 and 2013 in Denmark, the newly-installed turbines were
predominantly 3 MW
10
Source: data from Stamdataregister by the Danish Energy Agency (2004 and 2007 excluded due to limited sample), turbine sizes 100kW+
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
198
6
198
7
198
8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
5
200
6
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
Ro
tor
dia
met
er (
m)
Hu
b h
eig
ht
(m)
Turb
ine
cap
acit
y (k
W)
Average of Capacity (kW) Average of Rotor diameter (m) Average of Hub height (m)
Wind energy project cost drivers: O&M costs
11
Source: Nielsen, P. ”Vindmøllers Økonomi”. Data covers 1996 – 2008, all onshore turbines of nameplate capacity 600 kW+
• For projects 1996-2008 the average lifetime O&M costs (average for years 6-13) estimated at ca.14.5 EUR/MWh (2012 prices)
• For new projects as of 2010, indications of 12.3 EUR/MWh (2012 prices)– Significant reductions in O&M costs over time
Wind energy project cost drivers: Repowering as a new cost category
12
Number of turbines by year of establishment
Year of establishment
Number decommissioned
Number existing
Total capacity (kW) by year of establishment
Year of establishment
kW decommissioned
kW existing
Source: Danish Energy Agency, Danish Wind Turbine Owners’ Association
• Introduction of Scrappage Certificates– To continue deployment of wind resource– To facilitate decommissioning of old and poorly sited turbines
• Turbines of 450 kW or less can be replaced with new and more efficient wind turbines at an additional subsidy– Scrappage certificate -> additional subsidy for the newly installed
capacity– Several subsidy regimes depending on the time period:
• 0.02 EUR / kWh for 12 000 FLH of double the decommissioned capacity (upper limit of market price + subsidy at EUR 0.05 / kWh)
• 0.01 EUR / kWh for 12 000 FLH of double the decommissioned capacity (fixed)
• Total pool of decommissioned capacity: 175 MW• Scheme in force: 2005 – 2012• An example from 2013 project proposal Nørhede-Hjortmose (22 *
3.3 MW): compensation of 0.5 M EUR per turbine
13Source: Danish Energy Agency http://www.ens.dk/undergrund-forsyning/vedvarende-energi/vindkraft-vindmoller/vindmoller-pa-land/skrotningsordningen,
Wind energy project cost drivers: Repowering as a new cost category (2)
Cost development over time in Denmark (onshore)
15
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
€/kW
(20
13 p
rice
s)
Cost of turnkey onshore wind power projects in Denmark 1981 - 2012
Source: Nielsen, P. ”Vindmøllers Økonomi”
Lower demand than expected; oversupply
Steel / material, wage and EBIT increases
Overall price decrease post-2008 crisis
16
Cost development over time in Denmark (vis-à-vis other countries): capital cost 2003-2009
Source: Lantz, E., Wiser, R., Hand, M. et al ”IEA Wind Task 26 The Past and Future Cost of Wind Energy”, 2012
Cost development over time in Denmark (vis-à-vis other countries): LCOE 2008
17
Source: Schwabe, P., Lensink, S., Hand, M. et al ”IEA Wind Task 26 Multi-national Case Study of the Financial Cost of Wind Energy”, 2011
Aisma VitinaEa Energy Analyses
Mobile: (+45) 603 917 02E-mail: av@eaea.dk
Frederiksholms Kanal 41220 Copenhagen
Denmarkwww.eaea.dk
Thank you
Recommended