Univeristy of Michigan study: Climate change

Source: NASA

© Steve Cole/Photodisc/Getty Images

Global Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuels

Source: U.S. Department of Energy/CDIAC

Mill

ion

Metr

ic T

on

s of

Carb

on

1850 – 20091850 – 2009

© 2008 EPA/Everett Kennedy Brown/Landov

Some energy is radiated backinto space by the Earth inthe form of infrared waves

Some energy is radiated backinto space by the Earth inthe form of infrared waves

Some of this outgoing infrared radiation is trapped by the Earth’s atmosphere and warms it

Some of this outgoing infrared radiation is trapped by the Earth’s atmosphere and warms it

Most of this radiation is absorbed by theEarth and warms it

Most of this radiation is absorbed by theEarth and warms it

800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0

Age (years BP)

300

180

200

220

240

260

280

CO

2 C

once

ntra

tion

CO

2 (

ppm

v)

Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA

300

180

200

220

240

260

280

CO

2 C

once

ntra

tion

Tem

pera

ture

800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0

Age (years BP)

CO

2 (

ppm

v)

Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA

CO

2 C

once

ntra

tion

400

320

340

360

380

300

180

200

220

240

260

280

2013 CO2 Concentration: 4002013 CO2 Concentration: 400

Tem

pera

ture

800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0

Age (years BP)

CO

2 (

ppm

v)

Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA

2013 CO2 Concentration: 4002013 CO2 Concentration: 400

CO

2 C

once

ntra

tion

400

320

340

360

380

300

180

200

220

240

260

280

Tem

pera

ture

800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0

Age (years BP)

CO

2 (

ppm

v)

After 40 more years at the current rate of increase

After 40 more years at the current rate of increase

Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA

As CO2 Increases, So Does the Temperature2000 Years of CO2 and Global Temperature

Data: (Temperature) Thompson, et al., “Abrupt Tropical Climate Change: Past and Present,” Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, vol. 103, no. 28 (CO2) Australian Academy of Science; Etheridge, et al., “Law Dome CO2, CH4 and N2O ice core records extended to 2000 years BP,” Geophysical Research Letters 33,doi. 10.1029/2006GL026152, 2006. © 2006 American Geophysical Union. Reproduced/modified by permission of American Geophysical Union.

Summer Temperatures Have Shifted•1951 – 1980

Freq

uen

cy o

f O

ccu

rren

ce

Source: NASA/GISS; Hansen, et al., “Perceptions of Climate Change,” Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 10.1073, August 2012

Deviation from Mean

0 1 2 3 4 5-1-2-3-4-5

Cooler than average

Average

Warmer than average

Baseline (1951 - 1980) mean

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0

Summer Temperatures Have Shifted

•1981 – 1991

Freq

uen

cy o

f O

ccu

rren

ce

Deviation from Mean

0 1 2 3 4 5-1-2-3-4-5

Cooler than average

Average

Warmer than average

Baseline (1951 - 1980) mean

Source: NASA/GISS; Hansen, et al., “Perceptions of Climate Change,” Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 10.1073, August 2012

Extremely hot

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0

Summer Temperatures Have Shifted

•1991 – 2001

Freq

uen

cy o

f O

ccu

rren

ce

Deviation from Mean

0 1 2 3 4 5-1-2-3-4-5

Cooler than average

Average

Warmer than average

Baseline (1951 - 1980) mean

Source: NASA/GISS; Hansen, et al., “Perceptions of Climate Change,” Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 10.1073, August 2012

Extremely hot

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0

Summer Temperatures Have Shifted

•2001 – 2011

Freq

uen

cy o

f O

ccu

rren

ce

Deviation from Mean

0 1 2 3 4 5-1-2-3-4-5

Cooler than average

Average

Warmer than average

Baseline (1951 - 1980) mean

Source: NASA/GISS; Hansen, et al., “Perceptions of Climate Change,” Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 10.1073, August 2012

Extremely hot

The “extreme” temperature events used to cover 0.1% of the Earth. Now they cover 10%.

The “extreme” temperature events used to cover 0.1% of the Earth. Now they cover 10%.

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0

The Twelve Hottest Years on Record

Source: NASA/GISS

20092009 20072007 19981998 20022002

20062006 20122012 20112011 20042004 20012001

20102010 20052005

20032003

The Hottest Year Ever Measured(Statistically tied with 2005)

Source: NASA/GISS

2012 was the 36th consecutive year with a

global temperature above the 20th century

average

Reagan National Airport, Washington, D.C.

July 6, 2012

© 2012 Phillip Dugaw

Australia Heat Forecast: January 4, 2013

50°

40°

30°

20°

10°

0°

-10°

-20°

-30°

Data: Commonwealth of Australia, 2013 Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Australia Heat Forecast: January 14, 2013

50°

40°

30°

20°

10°

0°

-10°

-20°

-30°

54°

Data: Commonwealth of Australia, 2013 Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Two New Colors Had to Be Added to the Map

Change in Annual Global Temperature

•1880 – 2010

An

om

aly

Rela

tive t

o 1

901 –

200

0 M

ean

(°C

)

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2010

Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA

0.75

0.5

0.25

0

-0.25

-0.5

Increase in Heavy Precipitation Days

Source: Alexander, L. V., et al., “Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation,” J. Geophys. Res., 111, D05109, doi:10.1029/2005JD006290, 2006. © 2006 American Geophysical Union. Reproduced by permission of American Geophysical Union.

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

•Worldwide

“Global warming is contributing to an increased incidence of

extreme weather because the environment

in which all storms form has changed from human

activities.”

National Center for Atmospheric Research

June 15, 2011

“The only plausible explanation for the rise in weather-related

catastrophes is climate change.”

Munich Re

One of the two largest reinsurance companies in the world

September 27, 2010

Hurricane SandyHurricane SandyOctober 29, 2012October 29, 2012

© 2012 NASA Photo via Getty Images

New Jersey CoastlineNew Jersey CoastlineOctober 30, 2012October 30, 2012

© 2012 Reuters/U.S. Air Force/Master Sgt. Mark C. Olsen/Handout© 2012 Reuters/U.S. Air Force/Master Sgt. Mark C. Olsen/Handout

East Haven, ConnecticutEast Haven, ConnecticutOctober 30, 2012October 30, 2012

© 2012 AP Photo/Jessica Hill© 2012 AP Photo/Jessica Hill

Breezy Point, Queens, New YorkBreezy Point, Queens, New YorkOctober 30, 2012October 30, 2012

© 2012 AP Photo/Mike Groll© 2012 AP Photo/Mike Groll

Manhattan, New YorkManhattan, New YorkOctober 29, 2012October 29, 2012

© 2012 Christos Pathiakis/Getty Images

Causing biggerand more frequent

FLOODS

So the rainstorms(and snowstorms)

are gettingbigger

andmore intense

© 2010 Reuters/Ho New

Sukkur, PakistanSukkur, PakistanAugust 8, 2010August 8, 2010

© 2010 Reuters/Akhtar Soomro

Valenzuela City, PhilippinesValenzuela City, PhilippinesJuly 31, 2012July 31, 2012

© 2012 AP Photo/Aaron Favila

Yongchuan District, Chongqing, ChinaYongchuan District, Chongqing, ChinaJuly 23, 2012July 23, 2012

© 2012 Reuters/China Daily

Deggendorf, GermanyDeggendorf, GermanyJune 7, 2013June 7, 2013

© 2013 AP Photo/dpa, Armin Weigel

The same extra heat that evaporates water from the ocean pulls moisture even more quickly from the soil

An Inconvenient Truth © 2006 by Paramount Classics, a Division of Paramount Pictures. All Rights Reserved.

Drought Conditions

Courtesy 2012 Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews via University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

2000 – 2009

Dry Wet

Drought Conditions2030 – 2039

Dry Wet

Courtesy 2012 Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews via University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

Drought Conditions2060 – 2069

Dry Wet

Courtesy 2012 Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews via University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

2090 – 2099Drought Conditions

Dry Wet

Courtesy 2012 Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews via University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

Morse Reservoir, Noblesville, IndianaJuly 5, 2012

© 2012 AP Photo/Michael Conroy© 2012 AP Photo/Michael Conroy

Ryongchon-ri, North KoreaJune 22, 2012

Both Koreas suffered through the worst drought since record keeping began over 100 years ago

© 2012 AP Photo/Kim Kwang Hyon© 2012 AP Photo/Kim Kwang Hyon

Farmingdale, IllinoisJuly 16, 2012

© 2012 AP Photo/Seth Perlman© 2012 AP Photo/Seth Perlman

“It’s like farming in Hell.”“It’s like farming in Hell.”Fred BelowPlant biologist, University of Illinois in UrbanaJuly 2012

Phoenix, Arizona, U.S.A.July 5, 2011

Phoenix, Arizona, U.S.A.July 5, 2011

© 2011 MikeOlbinski.com© 2011 MikeOlbinski.com

Hotter Years Typically Have More Fires40 Years of Western U.S. Fire and Temperatures

175

150

125

100

75

50

25

62°

61°

60°

59°

58°

57°

56°

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Average TemperatureNumber of Fires

Avera

ge S

pri

ng

- S

um

mer

Tem

pera

ture

(°F

)Fire

s on

U.S

. Fore

st Serv

ice La

nd

Data: Climate Central, “The Age of Western Wildfires,” September, 2012

Colorado Springs, ColoradoJune 26, 2012

© 2012 AP Photo/Helen H. Richardson, The Denver Post© 2012 AP Photo/Helen H. Richardson, The Denver Post

Yarnell Hill Fire, ArizonaJune 30, 2013

19 firefighters were killed fighting the Yarnell Hill fire

© 2013 AP Photo/The Arizona Republic, Tom Story

© 2012 AP Photo/The Oklahoman, Jim Beckel

© 2012 AP Photo/The Norman Transcript, Jerry Laizure© 2012 AP Photo/The Norman Transcript, Jerry Laizure

Slaughterville, OklahomaSlaughterville, OklahomaAugust 3, 2012August 3, 2012

© 2009 AP Photo/Mark Pardew© 2009 AP Photo/Mark Pardew

Arc

tic

Sea Ice

Exte

nt

(mill

ion

km

2)

8001200 1600 2010

Arctic Sea Ice Extent550 A.D. to Present

Source: Adapted by permission from Macmillan Publishers Ltd: Kinnard, et al, Nature 479, 509-512 © 2011Source: Adapted by permission from Macmillan Publishers Ltd: Kinnard, et al, Nature 479, 509-512 © 2011

Reconstructed Sea Ice Extent

Modern Observations

Year

11

10

9

8

September Arctic Sea Ice Extent1979 – 2012

Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center, October 2012

Mill

ion S

qu

are

Kilo

mete

rs

1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

September ice extentTrend

New record low

September 2012September 2012

Source: NASA Earth Observatory

September 1984September 1984Arctic Sea Ice ExtentArctic Sea Ice Extent

Sea Ice Concentration

0% 100%

© 1978 Dr. Lonnie Thompson© 1978 Dr. Lonnie Thompson

Qori Kalis Glacier, PeruQori Kalis Glacier, Peru19781978

© 2011 Dr. Lonnie Thompson© 2011 Dr. Lonnie Thompson

Ice that took 1,600 years to form has melted in just 25

Qori Kalis Glacier, PeruQori Kalis Glacier, Peru20112011

Muir Glacier, AlaskaMuir Glacier, Alaska18801880

Source: Hazard, G. D. 1880 Muir Glacier: From the Glacier Photograph Collection, Boulder, Colorado USA; National Snow and Ice Data Center/World Data Center for Glaciology

Muir Glacier, AlaskaMuir Glacier, Alaska20052005

Source: Bruce F. Molnia, Bruce F. 2005 Muir Glacier: From the Glacier Photograph Collection, Boulder, Colorado USA; National Snow and Ice Data Center/World Data Center for GlaciologySource: Bruce F. Molnia, Bruce F. 2005 Muir Glacier: From the Glacier Photograph Collection, Boulder, Colorado USA; National Snow and Ice Data Center/World Data Center for Glaciology

As permafrost thaws, geologic seeps in Alaska may release 250,000 metric tons of methane to the atmosphere each year

Source: Alaska Dispatch, May 22, 2012Photo © 2012 Marie Laure GeaiSource: Alaska Dispatch, May 22, 2012Photo © 2012 Marie Laure Geai

Methane Melt PoolsMethane Melt PoolsSouth-Central AlaskaSouth-Central Alaska

Those who deny the existence of the

Climate Crisis often claim there is

“no scientific consensus,”however...

Every National Academy of Science of Every Major Country in the World

Confirms Anthropogenic Global WarmingAfrican Academy of Science

Australia

Belgium

Brazil

Cameroon

Canada

The Caribbean

China

France

Ghana

Germany

Indonesia

Ireland

Italy

India

Japan

Kenya

Madagascar

Malaysia

Mexico

Nigeria

New Zealand

Russia

Senegal

South Africa

Sudan

Sweden

Tanzania

Turkey

Uganda

United Kingdom

United States

Zambia

Zimbabwe

National Academies Rejecting the Science of Anthropogenic Global Warming

None

“The need for urgent action to address climate change is now indisputable.”

Joint Statement of the National Academies of Science For the G8 + 5 NationsMay 2009

Here is what the National Academies say:

We Need to Act Now!

Need effective solution that would:

Have bipartisan support

Significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions

Be simple and transparent

Create new jobs

Reduce our dependence on foreign oil

We do have a solution!

*Carbon Fee and Rebate

* Revenue-Neutral Carbon Tax

Dr. James Hansen Supports

Bill McKibben supports

Also supported by:

•Art Laffer •Greg Mankiw

George Shultz Lobbying for Carbon Tax

Now how exactly does this work?

Fee is placed on carbon, increases each year. Within a decade clean energy cheaper than fossil fuels.

With the “carbon rebate” 66% of all households would receive more than they would pay for the increased cost of energy.

Millions of jobs would be created: Clear, consistent market signal, renewables 2.5 – 9.25X more jobs than fossil fuel industry

Citizens Climate Lobby

Contact our Members of Congress

Media Exposure, LTEs

Meetings with M.O.C./Staffers

Seem impossible?

Other countries?

How long will it take?

How you can help!

It’s possible, and our children and grandchildren are depending on us to

take action

Take Action Now:• Listen to our intro call, details on back of bus card

• Write your Representative, Rep. ____, U.S. House of Representatives, Washington, DC 20515. Ask her/him to communicate with Ways and Means Chairman Dave Camp, urging him to convene a hearing to look at market-based approaches to address climate change. Conservative witnesses who could testify include:

• Art Laffer, former Reagan economic adviser.Greg Mankiw, economic advisor to George W. Bush and Mitt Romney.Andrew Moylan, R Street Institute.Gary Becker, Nobel laureate economist.George Shultz, former Secretary of State.