Expanding the window - the past, present, and future of Minnesota's water

Water Supply Convergence Colloquium | University of Minnesota | February 19, 2016

EXPANDING THE WINDOWTHE PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE OF MINNESOTA’S WATER

Source: Sgt. 1st Class Daniel Ewer, Minnesota National Guard

OBSERVATIONS

OLDEST RIVER GAGE

SEPTEMBER 17, 1883USGS 05211000 MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT GRAND RAPIDS, MN

THE ‘WINDOW’THE INTERVAL OF TIME

SPANNED BY INSTRUMENTAL HYDROLOGICAL MEASUREMENTS (TYPICALLY, 30 - 100 YRS)

LONGRELATIVE TO THE SPAN OF INDIVIDUAL CAREERS

OR THE LIFESPAN OF SOME INFRASTRUCTURE

SHORTCOMPARED TO THE LENGTH OF TIME MINNESOTA’S RIVERS, LAKES, AND AQUIFERS

HAVE BEEN SET IN THEIR CURRENT CONFIGURATION

A.D. 1680

Source: Minnesota Historical Society

LGM

THE RATE OF WARMING

IN THE MIDWEST HAS MARKEDLY ACCELERATED OVER THE PAST FEW DECADES.

BETWEEN 1900 AND 2010, THE AVERAGE MIDWEST AIR TEMPERATURE

INCREASED BY MORE THAN 1.5ºC.

“ ”

US National Climate Assessment May 6, 2014

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000discharge (cfs) at Grand Forks, North Dakota

Source: United States Geological Survey

THE RED RIVER IN WESTERN MINNESOTA IS PERHAPS THE LEAST STATIONARY RIVER IN THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.

ADOPTING THE ‘LONG VIEW’ ON MINNESOTA’S LAKES, RIVERS, AND AQUIFERS

COULD HELP US MAKE BETTER DECISIONS

ABOUT MANAGING THE STATE’S WATER.

PAST PRESENT FUTURE

PAST

Source: National Anthropological Archives, Smithsonian Institution

Source: Dr. Daniel Griffin, University of Minnesota

Source: Dr. Kevin Anchukaitis, University of Arizona

FUTURE

BECAUSE IF WE HAD OBSERVATIONS OF THE FUTURE,

WE OBVIOUSLY WOULD TRUST THEM MORE THAN MODELS.

BUT UNFORTUNATELY

OBSERVATIONS OF THE FUTURE ARE NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.

“ ”

Dr. Gavin Schmidt NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

Source: Cook et al., Sciences Advances (2015)

CLIMATE MODELS PREDICT MINNESOTA WILL BE DRIER BY THE END OF THIS CENTURY, BUT EXPERIENCE LESS CHANGE THAN THE SOUTHWEST OR CENTRAL PLAINS.

Source: Matheus Almedia