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Cover inset photos courtesy of DRBC Collection (top) and
Dave Soete (bottom)
Download the Plan at http://www.pinchot.org/doc/499
A Collaborative Effort
The Common Waters Partnership (http://www.commonwatersfund.org/partners) - 40+ non-profit organizations and public agencies supporting sustainable communities and working landscapes in the Delaware River watershed, primarily upstream of Delaware Water Gap
The Pinchot Institute for Conservation (www.pinchot.org) – facilitator and financial agent
The Model Forest Policy Program Climate Solutions University (http://www.mfpp.org/) –Financial assistance, adaptation expertise, guidance, resources, plan review and research assistance
Geographic Focus
Upper Basin Common Waters Fund priority counties:
• PA (Wayne, Pike & Monroe)• NY (Sullivan & Delaware) • NJ (Sussex & Warren
• Examine how a changing climate could affect forests, waters and communities of the Upper Delaware region, both now and in the future
• Strategize ways to reduce risks and protect the region’s resources and people
• Share findings with and hear feedback from communities in the Upper Delaware region.
Climate Adaptation Planning Goals
Source: www.nacl.org/weatherproject/
Source: Heron’s Eye CommunicationsSource: Nalat Phanit
• Some degree of climate change is inevitable
• Models suggest that negative effects will outweigh positive ones
• Ability to prepare for and adapt to new conditions may be exceeded as rate of change increases
Why Adaptation Planning is Important
Source: Adapted from Dahlman 2013
Observed Regional Climate Trends
• Spring has advanced by approx. 4 days
• Loss of snow pack/warmer winters
• Dates of river and lake ice melt have advanced by 1 - 2 weeks
• Less winter precipitation as snow / more as rain
• Earlier peak stream flows
Increasing average temperatures and precipitation across the region
Source: NOAA
Observed Regional Climate Trends
• Extreme downpours happening more frequently
• The biggest storms are getting bigger
• Extreme storms are responsible for a larger percentage of annual precipitation
• Longer intervening dry spells
1948-2011
Source: http://www.environmentamerica.org/reports/ame/when-it-rains-it-pours
Projected Regional Climate Trends
Year (Emissions Scenarios)
Estimated Change in
Avg. Temperature
(°F)
Estimated Avg.
Temperature (°F)
2050 (B1) 4 51.52050 (A1B) 5 52.5
2050 (A2) 5 52.52080 (B1) 5 52.5
2080 (A1B) 6.5 542080 (A2) 7 54.5
Estimated Past Average Temperature (1951-2006): 47.5°F
Year (Emissions Scenarios)
Estimated Change in
Avg. Precipitation
Estimated Avg.
Precipitation
2050 (B1) 4% 44.2
2050 (A1B) 8% 45.9
2050 (A2) 12% 47.6
2080 (B1) 8% 45.9
2080 (A1B) 8% 45.9
2080 (A2) 16% 49.3
Past Average Precipitation (1951-2006): 42.5”
Continued increases in temperature and precipitation
Source: Climatewizard.org
Many Sectors Affected by Climate Change
Climate Changes•Temperature
•Hydrology
•Extreme Weather
EconomicsInfrastructure damagesFlood lossesTourism/recreation impactsLoss of ecosystem services
ForestsForest health and productivityInvasive speciesForest composition
Water SupplyQualityCompetition for water
Human HealthHeat wavesInfectious diseasesAir quality
Agriculture Crop yieldsWater demandsInsects & weeds
Source: NPS DWGNRA
• Predominantly rural • Approx. 75% forested on average• Healthy protected lands acreages
Current Conditions & Trends
Land Cover 2010%Agricultural 9.69%Barren 0.10%Coniferous Forest 0.10%Deciduous Forest 71.33%Developed 7.17%Grassland 0.60%Mixed Forest 3.49%Open Water 2.46%Riparian 3.10%Wetland 1.97%
• Upper watershed 4500 sq. mi of 13,500+ total basin
• 2 Scenic Rivers segments
• Ecologically intact
• Supports diverse aquatic & terrestrial species
• Overall excellent water quality
• Water Supply for some 16 million
Current Conditions & Trends
Healthy Forests = Clean Water
Some indicators of long-term forest unsustainability:
• Even-aged
• Maturing, dominated by larger, sawtimber-sized trees
• Uniform in structure & lacking in diversity
• Privately owned with aging demographic
Current Conditions & Trends
Source: NY DEC (top), Pinchot Institute (bottom)
• Fragmentation/Parcelization
• Conversion to non-forest uses
• Invasive plants, insects & diseases
• Poor regeneration• High deer densities• Unsustainable harvesting practices
Other Existing Forest Stressors
Source: Pike Co. Conservation District
Source: Pike Co. Office of Community Planning Source: PADCNR
• Proximity to Major Metro Areas• Population Growth• Land Use Changes
• Increased impervious cover• Forest fragmentation• Water quality impacts
• Inconsistent land use standards across 3 states, 8 counties, hundreds of municipalities
Existing Non-Climate Water Stressors
Source: Jantz and Morlock
% Change in Population of Upper Delaware Counties 2000-2010
County % ChangeSussex County NJ 3.34Warren County NJ 6.11
Delaware County NY -0.16Sullivan County NY 4.34Monroe County PA 22.45
Pike County PA 23.90Wayne County PA 10.69
Source: NPS DWGNRA
• Floodplain development
• Inadequate stormwater management
• Aging infrastructure
Existing Non-Climate Water Stressors
Source: USACE Livingston Manner, NY Interim Feasibility Report
Source: WBRE TVSource: Pike Co. Office of Community Planning
• Flow management & competing demands
– Approx. 50% of Delaware River’s headwaters diverted out of watershed to NYC water supply
– Associated withdrawals/releases disrupt natural flow regimes
Existing Non-Climate Water Stressors
Source: DRBC
• Changes in tree species composition
Spruce-firMaple-birch-beechOak-hickory
• Associated shifts in bird & wildlife habitat, migratory corridors, breeding areas
Climate Risks to Forests
Current
Projected - Low
Projected - High
Source: USDA Forest Service PNW-GTR-870
Climate Risks to Forests• Increased frequency and severity of disturbances
• Insect outbreaks
• Pathogens
• Invasive species
• Higher deer populations
• Longer fire season
• Extreme weather
Source: Grey Towers NHS Source: US Forest Service
• SW runoff, nutrient & sediment loads from extreme precipitation events
• Streambank erosion, changes in channel morphology, habitat degradation
Climate Risks to Water Resources
Source: Pike Co. Conservation District
Source: Pike Co. Conservation DistrictSource: Pike Co. Office of Community Planning
• Seasonal drought
• Accelerated algae growth
• Increased evaporation from reservoirs
• Sea level rise and salt intrusion downriver
• More competition for less water
Climate Risks to Water Resources
Source: NY DEC
• Stream flow fluctuations
• Thermal stress to fish
• Declines in cold water fish and other sensitive species
Climate Risks to Water Resources
Looking Ahead: Potential Loss of Stream Habitat for Trout & Salmon due to Climate
Change (2050-2100)
Source: EPA
• Carbon Sequestration
• Clean Air
• Stormwater/Flood Control
• Clean Water
• Erosion/Sediment Control
• Water Temperature Moderation
• Recreation
• Fish/Wildlife Habitat Benefits
Loss of Valuable Ecosystem Services
Marcellus Shale Gas Recreation/Water Quality
Drinking Water Supply Forests0
1
2
3
4
5
0.42
0.94
2.80
4.19
Annual Economic Value of ResourcesUpper Delaware River Basin
$ b
illi
on
/yea
r
Source: Kaufman, unpublished manuscript
With Basin-Wide Implications
• Flood losses, property damages
• Municipal budget impacts
• Infrastructure damages
– Roads/culverts/bridges– Dams
Economic Implications
Source: USACE
Source: WBRE TV
• Flow and water quality related impacts on tourism and recreation
• Weather-related power disruptions
• Small Business Losses (Reynolds, 2013)
• Median cost of downtime from an extreme weather event is estimated at $3000 per day
• Est. 40% of small businesses experiencing long-term power outages from extreme weather close permanently due to losses
Economic Implications
Source: FUDR
Source: Kittatinny Canoes
Source: Pike Co. Office of Community Planning
Economic Implications
Agricultural Losses
• Direct crop damages• Delayed planting or harvest• Reduced milk production or crop yields• Increased water demands• More weeds and insects
Human Health Implications
http://www.apha.org/advocacy/reports/facts/
Vulnerable populations are most at risk
• Promote dialogue and information exchange about climate risks
• Maintain forest cover through land use & taxation policies that support forest conservation
• Provide landowner $$ and technical support to promote forest health
• Manage deer & invasives through cooperative efforts
• Implement strategic voluntary easement/land acquisition programs
Strategies for ReducingForest & Water Climate Risks
Source: Dave Soete
• Enhance local stakeholder representation in flow management policy-making
• Update floodplain management, riparian buffer and stormwater management standards
• Improve infrastructure to accommodate changing precipitation patterns
• Engage downstream water users who benefit from upstream forests and waters to invest in the Upper Basin
Strategies for Reducing Forest & Water Climate Risks
Source: DRBC
• A truly diverse and remarkable ecosystem
• At risk but the focus of many notable conservation efforts
Source: NPS UDSRR
Contact:Susan BeecherThe Pinchot Institute for Conservationsbeecher@pinchot.org
The Upper Delaware Region
Download the Plan at http://www.pinchot.org/doc/499
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