A Systems Thinking Primer: Learning to see

A Systems Thinking PrimerLearning to see...

@patkua

(in 3 parts)

@patkua

http://tiny.cc/twtlhttp://tiny.cc/retros

Architect

Developer

Leader

Life-long learner

Author

FundamentalsI.

ArchetypesII.

In S/W ContextIII.

Part I...

Fundamentals

What is a system?

Set of agentsAgent

Interconnected

Set of agentsAgent

Interconnected

In a dynamic state

More than the sum of their partsA product of their interactions

(does not apply to full system)

Cause Effect

Analysis Synthesis

A car travels approximately 26 km per Litre. If petrol costs £4.04/L which one would be closest to how much petrol would cost for a car travelling 2,626km? !

• £44.44 • £109.08 • £118.80 • £408.04 • £333.40

The United States consumers more than 20% (7 billion barrels) of the world’s oil supply annually yet only has 2% of the world’s proven oil reserves. What factors will determine when we reach “peak oil”—the point in Fme when the maximum rate of petroleum extracFon is reached, aIer which the rate of oil producFon is expected to enter terminal decline? !

Systems Thinking

Correlation != Cause

Systems thinkers seek

feedback loops

Weight Loss (Analysis)

Current Weight Target WeightDiet

Weight Loss (Synthesis)

Weight

Calories In Calories Out

“Healthy” Food ExerciseJunk Food

2 Types of Feedback Loops

Amplifying Dampening

Self Reinforcing

Escalating

Positive Runaway

Compounding

Snowballing

Stabalising

Self-maintaining

Negative

Balancing

Weight

Calories In Calories Out

“Healthy” Food ExerciseJunk Food

Mental Models

“The thinking it took to get us into this mess is not the same thinking

that is going to get us out of it.”

Word association

Colour

Furniture

Flowerseconds60

Mind Grooving

Slumber

Pillow

Blanket

Pajamas

Snooze

Write down as many words as you can remember, without talking

Slumber

Pillow

Blanket

Pajamas

Snooze

Circles in the Air

Thumb Wrestling

Noise Generating

Fun Generating

Delays

Part II...

Archetypes

A what?

An Archetype

Peter Senge Author of the Fifth Discipline

Balancing Loop

Desired State“warm”

Current State“cold”

Action

ExerciseFolding Stuff

Reinforcing Loop

Limits to Success

Reinforcing Loop

Limits to Success

Thickness

Stiffness

Folding Rate

1 1 0.001 m

2 2 0.002 m

3 4 0.004 m

4 8 0.008 m

5 16 0.016 m

6 32 0.032 m

7 64 0.064 m

8 128 0.128 m

9 256 0.256 m

10 512 0.512 m

11 1024 1.024 m

12 2048 2.048 m

13 4096 4.096 m

14 8192 8.192 m

15 16384 16.384 m

16 32768 32.768 m

17 65536 65.536 m

18 131072 131.072 m

19 262144 262.144 m

20 524288 524.288 m

21 1048576 1.048576 km

22 2097152 2.097152 km

23 4194304 4.194304 km

24 8388608 8.388608 km

25 16777216 16.777216 km

26 33554432 33.554432 km

27 67108864 67.108864 km

28 134217728 134.217728 km

29 268435456 268.435456 km

30 536870912 536.870912 km

31 1073741824 1073.741824 km

32 2147483648 2147.483648 km

33 4294967296 4294.967296 km

34 8589934592 8589.934592 km

8589.934592km

Fold 34

Dallas - Berlin (8391km)

Tragedy of the Commons

Fixes that fail

CashLoan

Interest

Part III...

In S/W Context

Feedback Loops

Amplifying Dampening

Good design #Bugs

Delivering frequently

Poor usability

Fixes that Fail

Long Build Breakages

Tragedy of the Commons

Iterations

Work longer hours

Don’t write tests

Copy and paste code

Work longer hoursDon’t Write TestsCopy and Paste Code

Limits to Success

FundamentalsI.

ArchetypesII.

In S/W ContextIII.

“There are no separate systems. The world is a continuum. Where to draw a boundary around a system depends on

the purpose of the discussion.”

Donella H. Meadows Author of Thinking in Systems

Questions?

@patkua

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