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Duncan and his team have identified a range of different technologies that could generate energy locally, providing greater self-sufficiency for Cambridgeshire and buffering it from the impacts of global competition for fossil fuels – a decreasing resource.This presentation is capturing an indicative scale and range of technologies to demonstrate the energy challenge Cambridgeshire faces. The CRIF project is taking this work and talking to our communities, businesses and public sector partners to inform debate on what is realistic and feasible for Cambridgeshire.
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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Duncan Price, Director, Camco
Presentation to Cambridge Cleantech 10/10/11
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Cambridgeshire’s challenging carbon objectives
1
What is Cambridgeshire's potential?
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Cambridgeshire is progressing well
2
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Modelling renewable energy deployment potential
3
Inputs Scenario 1 (low)
Scenario 2 (medium)
Scenario 3 (high)
Scenario 4 (high without wind)
Discount rate 9% 7% 6% 6%
Energy price [1]
DECC - 'low' energy prices
DECC - 'high' energy prices
DECC - 'high high' energy prices
DECC - 'high high' energy prices
Financial incentives (FIT/RHI)
lower than current tariff rates current rates
current rates (FIT/ RHI designed to give fixed return & will adjust to energy prices)
current rates (FIT/ RHI designed to give fixed return & will adjust to energy prices)
Project deployment rate (wind/biomass/EfW) 8% 15% 30%
30% (0% for wind)
Green policy support (for building integrated technologies) Low Medium High High
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Deployment options for renewable energy
4
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Renewable electricity potential is very large
5
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Renewable heat constitutes the greater challenge
6
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
S. Cambs and Hunts have largest resource
7
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
District heating potential lies in Cambridge and
Huntingdon
8
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Substantial infrastructure is needed
Number of installations associated with delivery of each scenario
9
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Significant investment opportunity
Investment potential for each scenario in £millions
10
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Energy efficiency and renewable energy can
close the carbon ‘gap’
11
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 12
Conclusions
• Cambridgeshire is doing well – especially renewable electricity
• There is potential for more – solar, biomass, heat pumps, wind
• All technologies are needed – heat and electricity
• Somewhere between medium & high scenarios delivers by 2031
• Also closes carbon gap to meet pro-rata 4th carbon budget
• Significant investment potential – up to £6.1 billion for high
scenario
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 13
Thanks
Duncan Price
Director
Camco
t: +44 (0)20 7121 6150
m: +44 (0)7769 692 610
e: duncan.price@camcoglobal.com
172 Tottenham Court Road London
W1T 7NS United Kingdom
www.camcoglobal.com
Renewable energy delivery pathways
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 14
There are three delivery pathways
Community Public Sector Commercial
14
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 15
What is the potential for each pathway?
15
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Public sector Community Commercial
De
plo
ym
en
t p
ote
nti
al
(GW
h)
Deployment potential by pathway
Wind >=6 turbines
Wind <=5 turbines
Biomass
ASHP
GSHP
SWH
PV
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 16
Community deployment potential
• PV
• 145MWp, 1,150,000m² of panels
• 460 non-residential buildings and 30,400 houses (14%)
• Solar water heating
• 42,600m² of panels on 8,500 houses (4%)
• Heat pumps
• 43,000 or 15% of houses
• Wind
• 75MW or 30 turbines
16
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 17
Vision for community delivery pathway
• Communities have strong incentive to invest in renewable energy
• Effective hard and soft incentive mechanisms
• Minimisation of risks and barriers to implementation
• Communities have access to a range of funding sources
• Availability of applicable finance options for a range of project types
• Gaining access to existing and new funding sources
• Communities are maximising learning from leading practice
• Demonstration case studies of successful community energy schemes
• Access to quality impartial ‘self-help’ guidance and information
17
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Vision for community delivery pathway
• Communities are managing energy projects effectively
• Identification of governance methods and relative benefits of each approach
• Range of delivery options identified
• Investment and delivery opportunities are clearly communicated
1818
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 19
Public sector deployment potential
• PV
• 39MWp, 300,00m² of panels
• 180 non-residential buildings and 7,500 houses (18%)
• Solar water heating
• 8,400m² of panels on 1,700 houses (4%)
• Heat pumps
• 8,100 or 20% of houses
• Wind
• 27MW or 11 turbines
• Biomass
• 14 installations of 1.5MW
19
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 20
Vision for public sector pathway
• Public sector is maximising value of its own hard assets
• PV on roofs of offices, schools, hospitals, leisure centres
• PV in social housing – own stock, ALMO and with housing association partners
• Appropriate wind development on public land
• Provision of anchor loads for district heating and CHP
• Renewable energy transition plan for each building
• Demonstration projects for advanced technologies and new approaches
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 21
Vision for public sector pathway
• Public sector is maximising value from its soft assets
• Planning policies – LDF, LDO, s106, CIL
• Enabling mechanisms – community energy fund, grant funding
• Public sector led development – de-risking projects, early project promotion
• Political engagement – FIT, RHI and Green Deal policy certainty, tariffs, etc.
• Market development – awareness raising, pipeline development for Green Deal
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 22
Vision for public sector pathway
Demonstration 2012 - 2015
Early adopters
2016-2020
Mainstream
2021-2025
•Secure resources
•Establish Community Energy Fund
Fund
• Invest in key infrastructure
• Develop PV on council roofsPV
• Consult on LDF policies
• Support community projectsLDF
•Establish Green Deal partnerships
•Secure ECO fundingEE
• Require connection to DH
• zero carbon homesCIL
•Planning protocol for wind
• Local Development Order for PV
LDF
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 23
Commercial deployment potential
• PV
• 160MWp, 1,300,000m² of panels
• 3,200 non-residential buildings
• Solar water heating
• 8,300m² of panels on 1,700 or 20% of buildings
• Heat pumps
• 200 or 3% of buildings
• Wind
• For wind parks ≤5 turbines, 28MW or 11 turbines
• For wind parks ≥6 turbines, 375MW or 150 turbines
• Biomass
• 14 installations of 1.5MW23
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 24
Vision for commercial delivery pathway
• Investment opportunities are clearly identified
• Technical, economic and deployment potential based on WP1
• Benefits of growth agenda are articulated
• Preconditions are clearly understood by public and private sector + community
• Public sector is facilitating investment
• Establishing clear public policies and protocols to provide market certainty
• Engaging in constructive dialogue with community
• Using its own assets to lever wider opportunities
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 25
Vision for commercial delivery pathway
• Investment is flowing, projects being developed
• Cambridgeshire seen as county with good renewable energy development
potential
• Cambridgeshire demonstrated to be investor-friendly
• Supply chain is in place, levels of risk and return meet minimum commercial
requirements
• Constructive dialogue, community benefiting and accepting
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 26
Vision for commercial delivery pathway
Demonstration 2012 - 2015
Early adopters
2016-2020
Mainstream
2021-2025
•Rent-a-roof schemes
•Develop PV on council roofs
PV
•Demo projects backed by RHIBio
•Demo projects backed by RHIGSHP
•LDO supporting PV in city
•zero carbon homesPV
•anchor loads connected
•AD projects developedBio
•ASHP widely used in commercial buildingsASHP
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 27
PV deployment potential
27
3,500
4,000
4,500
-£2,000,000
-£1,000,000
£0
£1,000,000
£2,000,000
£3,000,000
£4,000,000
£5,000,000
£6,000,000
£7,000,000
£8,000,000
£9,000,000
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
£/kWp PV System Cost
Net Present Value
Discount Rate
Return on 5MWp PV Programme
£8,000,000-£9,000,000
£7,000,000-£8,000,000
£6,000,000-£7,000,000
£5,000,000-£6,000,000
£4,000,000-£5,000,000
£3,000,000-£4,000,000
£2,000,000-£3,000,000
£1,000,000-£2,000,000
£0-£1,000,000
-£1,000,000-£0
-£2,000,000--£1,000,000
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 28
Wind deployment potential
28
1000
1250
1500
-£1,000,000
£-
£1,000,000
£2,000,000
£3,000,000
£4,000,000
£5,000,000
6%
8%
10%
£/kW Wind Capital Cost
Net Present Value
Discount Rate
Return on 5MW Wind Programme
£4,000,000 - £5,000,000
£3,000,000 - £4,000,000
£2,000,000 - £3,000,000
£1,000,000 - £2,000,000
£- - £1,000,000
-£1,000,000 - £-
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 29
What will the pathways look like or include?
• Compelling vision of what can be achieved
• Shared understanding of barriers and risks to implementation
• Cambridgeshire benefiting from up to £6.5bn of investment
• Local businesses are providing goods and services to the sector
• Leading county where people choose to invest
• Consistent and pro-active policy framework is adopted
• The public sector takes the lead
• Project plan for shared decision making
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Cambridgeshire’s challenging carbon objectives
30
Discussion Points
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 31
What will the commercial pathways look like?
1. What investment conditions are required for the private sector to
invest?
2. How should the growth agenda be used to facilitate RE schemes?
3. What is needed to enhance or extend existing low carbon energy
schemes?
4. How should the commercial sector partner with the public sector and
local communities to deliver greater RE capacity?
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 32
Thanks
Duncan Price
Director
Camco
t: +44 (0)20 7121 6150
m: +44 (0)7769 692 610
e: duncan.price@camcoglobal.com
172 Tottenham Court Road London
W1T 7NS United Kingdom
www.camcoglobal.com
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